Title: Simulation Scenarios
1Simulation Scenarios
Barry Dainton
2Preliminary (crude) definitions real v. simulated
- An experience is simulated if it is produced by
non-standard methods in a controlled fashion - non-standard NOT by bodies/brains interacting
with physical environment - Eg. Demons, computers
- A life (or part of one) is virtual if it is
composed of simulated experiences.
3Just suppose
- That when the universe is considered as a whole,
from a Gods eye vantage point, simulated lives
greatly outnumber real lives - Call this scenario simulation dominance
4Simulation Dominance
virtual
real
sum total of conscious lives (in entire universe,
all times)
5Simulation Argument (one form)
- Simulation Dominance is probable
- No reason to think
- human lives are less likely to be simulated than
other types - early C21-type human lives are less likely to be
simulated than other types - So it is probable that our lives are simulated.
6The Simulation Argument (Bostrom)
- Simulation Hypothesis for every non-virtual
early 21st century human life there are many
subjectively indistinguishable (or broadly
similar) virtual lives
REAL
VIRTUAL
7Simulation Argument cont.
- Your conviction that your life is non-virtual is
no better founded than anybody elses. - So if the Simulation Hypothesis is true, the
odds of your life being non-virtual are low (e.g.
1 in 10)
8Everyone believes their own lives to be real,
non-virtual
Im real!
Im real!
Im real!
Im real!
Im real!
R
R
Im real!
Im real!
Im real!
Im real!
9Simulation Argument conclusion
High probability
Low probability
My life is real
SH is true
Low probability
High probability
Probability assignments (not to scale)
10An old theme with a new twist
The Matrix
Tipler
The Truman Show
Are we leading virtual lives?
Bostrom
Vanilla Sky
Are we living in a simulation?
Chalmers
Permutation City
McGinn
and sudden notoriety
The 13th Floor
11Could my life be a simulation?
Threat idle
Logically Possible (merely)
Descartes?
Nomologically possible (merely)
Standard vat-brains? Most sci-fi?
Threat real!
Simulation Argument
Nomologically possible ( quite likely!)
Tipler, Bostrom, posthumanists
12My aims here
Simulation Argument conclusion take
simulation menace (somewhat) seriously
extend range
address queries
explore ramifications
13Next Why believe menacing simulations might
exist in the required (vast) numbers?
14Another distinction
15- S-simulations
- conscious lives generated by running software on
computer - (NOT brains!)
- H-simulations
- conscious lives produced by directly tampering
with neural hardware - Matrix-style
- vat-brain
COMPUTER ALONE
COMPUTER BRAIN
16S-sims the high-road
posthumanism
computers of VAST power
repositories of most conscious life
17Tipler
Bostrom
Planetary-mass computer 1042 ops
Time required for running of ancestor
simulation 10-7 seconds
(one of many)
18Ancestor simulation simulation of entire
mental history of humankind
Typical human brain operations per second 1014
- 1017
Ops required for 1 ancestor simulation 1032-35
- 100 billion humans x 50 years/human x 3 million
secs per year x 1014 1017 ops per brain per
second
(assumption humankind superseded in a few
centuries)
19S-simulations low road
20Desktop PC Power next few years
typical human brain
2030-40
Moores Law computational power per doubles
every two years
21S-simulations low road
- Small-scale sims on small machines (e.g.
desktop) - In large numbers
- entertainment God-games (The Sims)
- research historical, political
- E.g. exploring counterfactual histories
- Over many years (a few centuries)
- billions of menacing simulations
22God games The Sims, Civilization, etc.
- Currently, their inhabitants are not conscious
- In future that could change
- more processing power/memory
- more autonomous characters -gt more entertaining
spectacles
23An ordinary (virtual) family The Sims
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26Sample numbers
- 20 million simulated T(2003) day-streams per year
- assume very large future population
- For 100,000 years
- assume quite long future
- Total of 2000 billion menacing d-streams
- So significant simulation menace (50)
- approx 2000 billion actual 2003 d-streams
27S-simulations how great a menace?
programming know-how
time
virtual lives in VAST numbers
computational power
inclination
presupposes very controversial theory of mind
28Q How worrying is the computational simulation
menace?
Its not!
Very!
classical functionalism
materialism
non-reductive functionalism
classical dualism
Shoemaker Lycan Loar Chalmers
Descartes Smart/Place Searle Strawson McGinn
29Broadeningappeal of Sim. Arg.
Other sources of menacing simulations
H-SIMS
sims run on brains
30Neural interface technology
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32H-SIMS high road
brain-computer interface
gene manipulation
nano- engineered
fully immersive VR
psychology
perception
33H-SIMS low road
controlled hallucinations
implant assisted
drug assisted
exploit known brain potential
fully immersive VR
34One scenario VR in education
- Imagine a typical 23rd century history lesson
- Topic life as an ordinary 21st century person
- Method fully immersive virtual reality trip to
the past - Spend a few hours AS an ordinary 21st century
person
35H-sims will the technologies ever be developed?
- It is hard for us to envisage how (say)
brain-machine interfaces of the kind required
could be designed implemented. - But remember Arthur C. Clarkes Third Law
Any sufficiently advanced technology is
indistinguishable from magic - Think what would a 19th century person have made
of modern computers, atomic weapons, genetic
manipulation, etc.
36H-sims technology further reasons for optimism
- Neuroscience we still have much to learn
- Research in nano-technology, programmable matter
continues apace - Money no problem entertainment industry
- computer games bigger than movies
- MMOG phenomenon indicator of whats to come?
37MMOG
massive multiplayer online gaming
persistent world games
Ultima Online Everquest Anarchy Online .
participants 120,000 (simul)
notoriously addictive
MMPORG
massive, multiplayer, online role-playing game
38MMOG screenshots
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40MMOG
MMPORG
Big money in sim technology!
41H-sims relevant prediction
VR trips to the past
if possible
VERY numerous
42VR-vacations sample numbers
- Actual 2003 d-streams 2 x 1012
- Assume
- every sim-age person takes 1 trip to early 21st
century - 10,000 sim-age generations
- average sim-age population 10 billion
- Yields 1.0 x 1014 virtual streams
- So 1/50 chance of your life being real
43Menacing Simulations further possible source
MODAL REALISM
menacing S-sims infinite
menacing H-sims infinite
Lewis, Tegmark
44MODAL REALISM
8
real lives
virtual lives
8
50 chance of virtuality
MANY WORLDS?
45Where do we stand?
A. Humankind will have a long and successful
future.
B. Technology will make realistic sims possible,
and these will be created frequently, in varied
forms.
tension
C. You and I exist in the early 21st century
tension
D. Modal Realism is true.
46High probability
More confident
These experiences occur in 2003
A B true
C true
Less confident
Low probability
47Pragmatic
Theology
Ethics
Sim Arg implications
Epistemology
Metaphysics
48Scepticism traditional response
Of course this life is real!
COMBAT!
establish that concern is unwarranted
49Sim Era Scepticism menace of the virtual very
real
Assume reality is largely as our experience
suggests (physical law, history, etc.)
Take a few VR-trips threat will feel real
significant probability that your life virtual
50Objection
Sim-scepticism self-undermining
Sim threat not real
51Recall the basic line of reasoning
And see how it defeats itself
52My life is non-virtual
Simulation Argument
My world has properties F, G ..
High odds that I am living in a simulation
53My life is non-virtual
Simulation Argument
My world has properties F, G
High odds that I am living in a simulation
?
54Steps to a vicious, epistemically unstable, loop
- Certain beliefs about the character of the world
lead you to believe that it is likely that you
are living in a simulation. - But the latter belief undermines the former
beliefs - If you believe you inhabit a sim, why believe
your experience is a reliable guide to how things
really are? - Your grounds for assigning a high probability to
the sim hypothesis are no more
55Loop concluded and relaunched
- So you no longer have reason to believe you are
living in a simulation. - You conclude things are much as they seem.
- But if things are much as they seem, there is a
good chance that you are living in a simulation
. - And the loop repeats .
56One response entrenchment
Anyone who initially assigns high probability to
sim hypothesis is always returned to their
initial state
So rejecting the Sim Arg and returning to
reality is is not a stable option
57A problematic ( puzzling) symmetry
Rejecting Sim Arg not a stable option
Accepting Sim Arg not a stable option
58Question
Rejecting Sim Arg not a stable option
Accepting Sim Arg not a stable option
Can the Sim Arg leave one in an epistemically
stable situation?
Maybe
59 A suspect equation.
Traditional demon hypothesis
Naturalistic simulation hypotheses
No
Yes
60Simulation Realism variants
- Full simulation is perfect duplication of actual
world - Partial simulation is accurate in some respects
- physics
- biology
- history
- personalities
61S-realism
- Simulations with high S-realism resemble the
actual world in ways relevant to the assessment
of the Simulation Hypothesis (i.e. that there are
high odds that your life is virtual) - laws of nature, technological possibilities,
social trends, etc. - Modest claim at least 75 of current fictions
(films, novels, computer games) have high
S-realism - Modest prediction at least 50 of future
fictions will have high S-realism
6280 chance I am living in a simulation
My world is broadly as it seems low odds that
my life is virtual
Sim Arg
My world is broadly as it seems good
chance that my life is a simulation
Simulations with high S-realism 50
40 chance I am living in a simulation
Steps to an epistemically stable situation
63- (a) the world is broadly as I believe it to be
(physical laws, history, technological trends) - (b) the probability that I am living in a
simulation is quite high - Claim
- These two beliefs are consistent, provided that
under (a) you believe that most future
simulations are likely to supply a broadly
accurate picture of reality
64Moving swiftly on
65Theology Problem of Evil
distribution of pointless suffering
real
virtual worlds / lives
most evil directly due to humankind
66Metaphysics varieties of VR
H-sims v S-sims
Autonomous v. Programmed actions
Active v Passive
Others are real (active) or merely apparent.
Communal v. Individual
Original v Replacement Psychology
Your own psychology, or another one
67Active Individual Original Psy Active
Individual Replacement Psy
Active Communal Original Psy Active
Communal Replacement Psy
H or S
Passive Individual Original Psy Passive
Individual Replacement Psy
Passive Communal Original Psy Passive
Communal Replacement Psy
16 modes
The Matrix active, communal, original ?
68Simulation Scenarios as Metaphysical Hypotheses,
not Sceptical Hypotheses (Chalmers)
- If we were simulants, most of our beliefs about
our world would still be true - But our world would have a different nature than
we commonly believe - e.g. physical things are constituted by
computational processes - Some plausibility for COMMUNAL sims
69Pragmatic Issues
Should I be depressed?
Should I act differently?
My life is unusually interesting does this
increase the odds?
My life is boring does this reduce the odds?
70The price of fame high sim odds
71But my life is too dull
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73No life is too dull!
The Sims bestselling computer game for the
past three years
74Simulation Ethics
Creation Issues
Maintenance Issues
Question might ethical scruples diminish the
menace posed by the Simulation Argument?
75Deception Objection
Does the wrong outweigh the gift of existence?
Sim subjects are being deceived about their real
condition. Its wrong to deceive in this way.
H-sims, VR-vacations deception temporary
self-imposed!
76Self-Interest Objection
Cant guarantee policy will be continued
Future generations will restrict sims to secure
their own reality
Opposing forces escapism, entertainment industry
Realization innocence cannot be recaptured
implications for us
77Sim innocence cant be regained, but can be
simulated
popularity (no. of simulations/visits)
2003
sim age
innocence
100,000 AD
transition
78Concluding speculations Might We Be In a
Minority?
dont
take sim threat seriously
us
sum total of intelligent conscious beings
79A further (final?) Copernican shift
virtual
real
sum total of conscious lives