Desired Effects

1
Desired Effects
Primary Customer
JFMCC
Enable Naval Joint and Coalition Commander
decision-making through environmental sensing and
profound understanding of the Maritime
Battlespace Enable Oceanography Enterprise with
a properly balanced Naval Oceanography Program
Enable Fleet Forces to operate safely and
efficiently without capability loss due to
navigation deficiency Enhance U.S. Naval Force
maritime superiority by leveraging partnerships -
Interservice, Interagency, International Support
Naval and Joint System/Platform Capability
Providers with Accurate Environmental Knowledge
Naval Oceanography Enterprise
CFFC
CNO SECNAV
N8
2
Sea Shield
This slide is UNCLASSIFIED

• RADM Walsh
• MajGen Nash
• RDML Byus
• RADM McCullough

3
WCP Capability Coverage Sea Shield
This slide UNCLASSIFIED
Sea Shield JCAs
?
Covered in WCP
Assessed but no POM-08 Issues
Does not meet SECDEF / Tank approved definitions
Insufficient analysis or tools
This slide UNCLASSIFIED
4
Sea Shield Capability Card Mapping
This slide UNCLASSIFIED
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5
Ocean/Hydro/Riverine Survey
This slide UNCLASSIFIED
ASW
Distributed ASW Systems
Capability Driver (MCO-2 MCO-3)
MIW
Distributed Expeditionary MCM
TAMD
ESG/CSG defensive netted sensors
Today
2012
2024
NPOESS National Polar-orbiting Operational
Environmental Satellite System LBSFI Littoral
Battlespace Sensing, Fusion Integration
(Gliders/AUVs/TEP/ Processing)
NPOESS Altimeter
GFO Altimeter
T-AGS
Observe and Collect
Ocean Gliders/AUV
limited demonstration capability
Data Fusion Algorithm IOC
Process and Exploit
Mission Threads
Battlespace Prep and Monitoring Cell
Analyze and Produce
Green Employment of systems fully
effective Yellow Employment of systems
compromised Red Employment of systems
significantly impaired
Integrate
Summary
Enhanced Summary
LBSFI

• Capability Gap Higher-confidence environmental
  databases in MCO regions needed to support
  distributed/netted USW systems
• Change Option Reduce risk by improving
  capability to collect and process environmental
  data in littoral and denied areas

This slide UNCLASSIFIED
6
Ocean/Hydro/Riverine SurveySurvey Impact on USW
in MCO-2
SSNs Needed to Maintain 42 nm Barrier w/ 0.90
Effectiveness
Acoustic Bottom Loss Database

• Impact of IPE on MIW
• Reduction in time to clear
• Reduction of munitions expended
• Accurate assessment of remaining risk (number of
  mines)
• Impact of IPE on ASW
• Optimize sensor and weapon effectiveness
• Reduce tactical timelines
• Reduce risk

5
4.0
SSNs Required
Average Transmission Loss Error (dB) 0.0
3.3 2.4 4.8 4.4 6.8 6.8 20.0
4
3
2
1.3
1
0
Legacy New Bottom Database
Database
Barrier with 1 vice 4 SSNs

• Warfighting Impact Better knowledge of
  environment improves sensor performance allowing
  more efficient allocation of assets
• Capacity Four years were needed to survey
  high-confidence areas (green) with dedicated
  T-AGS ship. Emerging technologies (e.g., AUVs
  and gliders, A/C sensors, Through-the-Sensor
  exploitation) improve survey capacity. Increased
  surveys, analysis, and production will improve
  effectiveness in low-confidence areas (red)
• Capability Emerging technologies provide
  potential access to denied littoral areas (white)

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Ocean/Hydro/Riverine Survey
(This slide is UNCLASSIFIED)

• Capability Gap Higher-confidence environmental
  databases in MCO regions needed to support
  distributed/netted USW systems
• Change Option Reduce risk by improving
  capability to more rapidly sense, fuse and
  integrate environmental data in littoral and
  denied/contested areas yielding
• Warfighter Knowledge of the
• Ocean Volume Domain (Gliders and AUVs)
• Ocean Bottom Domain (AUVs, FSTs and Airborne
  Survey)
• Atmospheric Domain (Sounders, Aircraft Sensors,
  Shipboard Radars)
• And, Fullest employment of systems to detect,
  engage and defeat potential threats
• Overall change option fiscal impact(32M/259M)
  (FY08 / FYDP)

(This slide is UNCLASSIFIED)
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POM-08 Endgame and PR-09Front End Assessment
Pre-decisional - Not for release outside of
OPNAV This slide UNCLASSIFIED

• Sea Shield
• October 27, 2006
• DRAFT
• Issue Review with N81 on 27 October

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Ocean/Hydro/Riverine Survey
ASW
Distributed ASW Systems
MIW
Distributed Expeditionary MCM
TAMD
ESG/CSG defensive netted sensors
Today
2012
2024
LBSFI Littoral Battlespace Sensing, Fusion
Integration (Gliders/AUVs/TEP/
Processing) NPOESS National Polar-orbiting
Operational Environmental Satellite System
GFO Altimeter
T-AGS
Observe and Collect
Altimetry Gap
Ocean Gliders/AUV
limited demonstration capability
Data Fusion Algorithm IOC
Process and Exploit
Mission Threads
Battlespace Prep and Monitoring Cell
Analyze and Produce
Green Employment of systems fully
effective Yellow Employment of systems
compromised Red Employment of systems
significantly impaired
Integrate
PB-07
POM-08
LBSFI
Altimeter mission dropped from NPOESS

• Capability description - Reduced risk in
  data-sparse and denied/contested regions due to
  LBSFI. Broad ocean acoustic characterization
  degraded after FY13 due to deletion of Navy
  altimeter.
• PR-09 issues - Reduce risk to ocean acoustic
  predictions as part of a mitigation strategy IAW
  USD ATL direction.

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Altimetry Capability
Altimeters provide global measurements of Sea
Surface Height
SSH is combined with other measurements to
compute sound speed profiles in the ocean
Sound speed profiles are input to compute
acoustic propagation in ASW tactical decision aids
Tactical Decision Aids allow ASW asset commanders
to optimize system performance and force posture

• Without Altimeter (based on MCO-2 Analysis)
• Mean Detection Range errors increase 100
• Force allocation errors increase
• Blue ship losses likely to increase

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Altimetry Status

• PR-09 Issue
• After FY12, there will be no satellite ocean
  altimetry capability for any Western nation
• Fielding a capability by FY12 would require an
  FY09 program start

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Review of Previous Analysis

• SmartSearch 05 (SPA)
• Focus Augmenting databases with in-situ
  collections (glider)
• Finding CONOPS shift reduced time-to-detect by
  5hrs (more area searched)
• Lead Shield III (CNA)
• Focus Detailed bottom mapping ISO Change
  Detection
• Finding MCM Timelines reduced by 6 days.
• PR-07 Yellow Sea Study (SPA)
• Focus LFBL Measurements in low-confidence
  regions
• Finding Resources needed to maintain barrier
  reduced by 1/2
• Ocean Altimetry (SPA) (see back-up discussion
  and classified enclosure)
• Focus Determine impact on warfighting of
  incorporation of remote ocean altimetry data.
• Finding Improved Surface Duct characterization
  reduced MDR errors by over 100
• ASW Battle (SPA) (see classified enclosure)
• Focus Understand how knowledge of the
  environment impacts campaign level ASW metrics.

Based on Fleet Experiments
Altimeter data improves surface duct
characterization
Environmental variability impacts campaign-scale
outcomes
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ROI for Environmental Knowledge StudyProposed
Framework

• Assumption Campaign Analysis baseline WITTW
  metrics represent best casei.e., Environmental
  Certainty.
• Hypothesis Decreasing Environmental uncertainty
  will improve WITTW metrics toward the baseline.

1.0
Under Invested
Target Capability Range (notional)
0.5
Environmental Uncertainty
WITTW (e.g., HVU Losses)
Over Invested
0.1
0
300M
100M
600M
Current Capability
Campaign Baseline
LBSFI
Oceanography Investments (notional)
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ROI for Environmental Knowledge StudyChallenges

• 1. Representing Environmental Uncertainty in
  Campaign scale analysis
• SEJHU SL - 2TL TS RD RL or
  (NL-DI) /- 9dB (c. 1s)
• 2. Correlating significant uncertainties with
  WITTW metrics

Environmental Uncertainty
Combined Uncertainty term
Other Uncertainties

• Environmental Uncertainly is conflated with many
  other uncertainties when simulated Pd is
  calculated
• Strategy Identify environmental parameters with
  current uncertainties large enough to impact mean
  Pd (uncertainty is distributed normally).

High Environmental Uncertainty High WITTW
variability
Reduce Uncertainty Here!
Environmental Uncertainty
Strategy Conduct Environmental Excursions on
POM-08 ASW studies (DNS/SSWA) to determine most
dependent parameters.
WITTW variability
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Ocean/Hydro/Riverine SurveyForce Structure
Analysis
(This slide is UNCLASSIFIED)

• With MIW IPE investment knowledge of the
  environmental conditions could result in up to
• 40 reduction in time to clear.
• 40 reduction in neutralization munitions
  expended.
• Without IPE investment environmental conditions
  could result in up to
• 134 increase in mines remaining.
• 200 increase in time to clear.

(This slide is UNCLASSIFIED)