FUTURE WORLD

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FUTURE WORLD
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This presentation is one that has been given at
various universities for classes in international
business. My name is Dr. Alijandra Mogilner and
I am Executive Vice President of Faucon
International, a business development company. I
have over ten years experience solving problems
for businesses and as a futurist for individuals
and multinational businesses. I have worked for
businesses in the U.S., Mexico, China, Africa,
and throughout Europe and Eastern Europe. See
our website at http//www.fauconinternational.com
for more information Faucon International 3639B
Midway Drive Suite 176 San Diego, CA
92110 info_at_fauconinternational.com
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What is this Presentation? This presentation is
to give you some idea of the world in which you
will be working and investing. It includes some
of the methods I use in making business
projections. The overall system is rather
complicated, but you will at least see the basics
here and some of the most important projections
for business. The presentation also includes
some of the threats such as terrorism and natural
disasters that are involved in international
business. Most business people ignore such
threats, but proper planning can mitigate the
impact of such events and make the difference
between thriving despite a catastrophic incident
or having it be the reason a company or
individual is destroyed financially. I have
concentrated on the West Coast of the United
States for many of my examples because that is
where many of my students live and it is easier
to understand an environment with which you are
familiar. The issues are universal the same
throughout the world you ignore them at your own
risk.
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• METHODOLOGY
• Technology allows us to see what is happening NOW
  and helps project the future.

Mohave
Satellite image of Palo Alto
In 20 years 80 of the entire worlds population
is expected to be located in the urban littoral.
It will be slower in the United States, but it is
happening.
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San Francisco and Marin are excellent examples of
this heavy concentration of buildout along the
littoral.
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This shows the current distribution of energy in
the world and the concentration of settlement
along major waterways such as oceans, rivers, and
major lakes.
The Urban Littoral
The Urban Littoral is a 100 mile area that
borders major bodies of water and major rivers.
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Buenos Aires

• METHODOLOGY Gather Data from current sources
  and create databases. The past is prologue.
• (an intelligence operation)

Jakarta
Bejing
Rio
Mexico
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• METHODOLOGY
• Intelligence gathering on future plans

Planned development for Little Italy in San
Diego, California
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Los Angeles to San Diego. Futurists expect it to
become a megalopolis. The Boston/ NYC corridor
is the first such megalopolis in the U.S.
USING THE INFORMATION GATHERED WE CAN REACH
REASONABLE CONCLUSIONS
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Warfare, disease, food programs, etc. become
vertical not horizontal.
CONCLUSION
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• How does that vertical world affect you?
• property values both in the littoral and outside
  it.
• investments like health delivery systems, waste
  collection and containment, water availability,
  transportation and food.
• your career retail stores, professions, etc.
  must have clients available.
• At the same time, communications networks allow
  decentralization. You may not HAVE to live near
  your work if you are a writer, a bookkeeper, run
  an online business, have a radio show, etc.

CONCLUSION
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Manufacturing
Food and Raw Materials such as ores
Information Age
There are now First, Second, and Third World
Countries Whether you like it or not, we live in
a world of international business and
interdependence.
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Conflicts Water, Air, Food, Medicine, and Toys
the Quality of Life and Even Life
Itself Economic disparity between nations and
within cultures Loss of the middle class in first
world nations Asymmetric Warfare on the
traditional battlefield or in the homeland of the
enemy will be the primary form of conflict in the
world. This may include the political process,
battlefield conflict, and terrorism. Political
and Social Issues may or may not use
terrorism Often the Primary Goal is Change,
and/or Power Terrorism is one of the few ways a
smaller, poorer, group or country can hope to
gain any kind of victory against the power
structure. Additionally, terrorism is used not to
gain victory, but to gain money and power. Often
the stated goal is undesirable to the leadership.
Domestic Terrorism Primary Goal is Money
and Power International Terrorism Primary
Goal is Power Industrial Blackmail Primary
Goal is Money The less powerful the group, the
more likely they are to use biological weapons
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Genetics Technology World Trade and World
Government Immigration
Demonstrators converge on the U.S. Capitol during
the April 9 Jubilee 2000 mobilization for debt
relief.
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San Francisco now for some The disparities
between rich and poor are already being used for
political power and economic gain. Some of the
issues are real, some created, and some invented.
It is becoming more and more necessary to
distinguish between them.
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San Francisco now for others
It is YOU they want to eradicate!
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AIDS
Even AIDS is used for political and economic gain.
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Water is imported across hundreds of miles of dry
land in the world's longest aqueducts Fuel
through the world's largest, longest electric
wires sparks 1500 square miles of humans Food
trucked daily hundreds of miles to America's
largest wholesale market, on Central Avenue,
serves an appetite larger than most world nations'
VULNERABILITIES ARE GENERALLY IGNORED IN THE
UNITED STATES AND OTHER NATIONS.
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• METHODOLOGY Ask the people involved listen to
  what they say.

Ken Alibek ran the Largest Covert Biological
Weapons Program in the World.
Timothy McVeigh wasnt militia. He worked with
Iraq and white racists, but that wasnt
convenient.
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Removal of a liquefying cadaver.Note protective
gear.
Relatives touch the cadaver of anEbola victim.
Many will later succumb.
Ebola and other emerging diseases may be
weaponized or a threat in themselves.
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  BIOLOGICAL WARFARE
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Assassination of Rev. Dr. Martin Luther King
Jr. Despite the Lone Gunman claimed by law
enforcement, evidence shows there were many
individuals involved some perhaps in the U.S.
government.
Rabbi Meir Kahane (left) and his assassin El
Sayyid Nosair (right). Nosair was involved with
1st Trade Center Bombing and bin Laden
John Doe 2 at OKC? Padilla later picked up for
dirty bomb plot
PROBABLE TERRORIST ATTACKS (DOMESTIC OR FOREIGN)
ARE OFTEN ATTRIBUTED TO SOMETHING ELSE, OR THE
ALWAYS POPULAR LONE GUNMAN, BECAUSE OF ECONOMIC
CONSIDERATIONS AND TO KEEP POPULATIONS CALM. AT
OTHER TIMES THEY ARE USED TO MOVE AGAINST
UNPOPULAR GROUPS OR INDIVIDUALS.
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WHY SHOULD YOU CARE? IT MAKES YOU MORE
VULNERABLE BECAUSE THE PERPETRATORS ARE NOT
PURSUED AND STEPS ARE NOT TAKEN TO SEE THESE
ATROCITIES DO NOT HAPPEN AGAIN.
When the government DOES take responsibility and
let people know about possible terrorist threats
political enemies complain endlessly about
keeping the nation in fear. Our best
information on terrorist attacks come from the
public.
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Planning Ahead
Hints of the dark future terrorist have planned
for us.
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THE RN IN CBRN
Bin Laden is believed to have from six to 20
nuclear suitcase bombs. Purchased from the
Russians in the mid-1990s, they were not in
working order. Other groups have tried to buy or
make similar weapons over the past 10 years.
Scientists in Afghanistan and other countries
have sold their services to some groups.
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The following two slides are from a message sent
to bin Laden groups 25 Oct. 2001
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Posted on the Pakistani web site, this is the
beginning of advice given to the bin Laden group
Whether it were the result of a terrorist attack
using a "brief case" nuclear device or the first
salvo of an all out nuclear war, what you did
during the first few moments following a nuclear
blast would mean the difference between life and
death. It's important to realize that such
weapons will be relatively small. This reason for
this is that when a bomb increases in size by a
factor of ten, its destructiveness is only
roughly doubled. Militaries employ large numbers
of smaller nukes rather than just a few large
ones smaller bombs and warheads are more easily
delivered and give more bang for the buck.
Terrorists would use small bombs for much the
same reason. Small nukes would do a lot of damage
while being easy to conceal and deliver. While
the anti-nuclear activists of the 1980s liked to
describe the devastation the largest possible
nuclear bomb would cause, in reality much smaller
bombs would be used in almost any attack you
might face in the future. You can survive quite
close to "ground zero" if a small nuclear device
explodes. The population in Nagasaki was
unprepared for any sort of attack but there were
survivors who chanced to be in bomb shelters when
the nuclear explosion occurred. Some of these
people were just one third of a mile from ground
zero when the bomb exploded. A good shelter can
be the ticket to surviving a nuclear attack.
Since the Nagasaki bomb was not all that
different from those that might be encountered in
a limited war or terrorist operation, you could
survive a similar blast even if you're just a
mile from ground zero.
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(No Transcript)
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• Solutions
• How does this affect you?
• It actually presents business and investment
  opportunities.
• Honest and reliable threat assessments can save
  business billions of dollars and, perhaps, your
  life or the life of other workers.
• Knowledge about the culture into which you
  expand can virtually eliminate some attacks.
• Enlightened Self Interest can mitigate
  problems.
• Knowledge, education on issues, public
  relations programs, honest coverage of issues can
  make those who simply seek power and money
  ineffective.
• Understanding that news coverage, even
  government information, is not always accurate
  and serves economic, social, and political
  purposes. If something affects you INVESTIGATE
  for yourself.

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Freedom Ship contains a city with 50,000
residents and many amenities.
Las Hardes
Escape Many see escape as the answer. What
happens if a deadly disease breaks out on Freedom
Ship? It might be a good investment, but I
wouldnt want to live there.
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Every home and apartment is linked by a
fiber-optic cable network. Privacy?
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APPROPRIATE TECHNOLOGY
Solving problems provides both business
opportunities and real solutions.
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Mars before and after terraformation.
Japans Moon Base Plans
MOVING OFF WORLD Will we take the problems with
us? Or use it as an opportunity to build an Eden?
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EARTH RISE This may be the view from your new
front porch.