Launch Vehicle Failure Mode

1
Launch Vehicle Failure Mode Database AST
Research and Development Project
Presented to COMSTAC RLV Working Group By
Nickolas Demidovich Date May 17, 2007
2
Overview

• Historical Database Tasking
• Phase 1
• Phase 2
• Status
• Findings to date
• Overall
• Trends
• Scope of Phase 2
• Path Forward
• Questions/Discussion

3
Historical Database

• Description of Project
• AST should compile and maintain a database of
  historical data on failures and reliability of
  rocket-powered vehicles. An exhaustive database
  would include not only percentage reliability and
  number of vehicles, but type and class of vehicle
  and, to the extent possible, the results of the
  failure analysis. The ultimate goal is to provide
  the industry with insight into what fails and
  why.
• Phase 1 orbital space launch vehicles
• Phase 2 available data on suborbital rocket
  powered (non-missile) vehicles (X-15 and others)
• Schedule
• Study Period November 2006 June 2007
• Draft Report Aug 2007
• Briefing Next COMSTAC
• Goal
• Enhance Safety

4
Status of Phase 1

• Historical Database on ELVs was created using
  open-source documentation on known failures
• Database is Not proprietary
• Database is Not ITAR controlled
• Database is Preliminary
• Timeframe 1957-2007
• 28 percent of all launch failures over entire
  period had unknown failures
• Early Soviet (late 50s and 60s) data not
  publicly available
• Failure is as defined in FAA/AST report Guide
  to Probability of Failure Analysis for New
  Expendable Launch Vehicles
• An in-flight failure occurs when a launch
  vehicle does not complete any phase of normal
  flight.

5
Status of Phase 1

• Launch vehicle Database Sources
• Periodicals (i.e. Satellite News Digest, Janes
  Space Directory etc)
• Books (i.e. Encyclopedia Astronautica,
  Spaceflight and Rocketry, International Reference
  Guide to Space Launch Systems, etc)
• Futron Corporation database from 1957
• Electronic Library of Space Activity (ELSA)
• Press releases
• Cross checked data base with internet sites
• USAF, NASA , etc

6
Known Cause of ELV Launch Failures Worldwide by
Vehicle Subsystem 1957- May 2007

• Propulsion anomalies
• are salient failure
• mode historically

7
Known Cause of Launch Failures Worldwide by
Vehicle Subsystem 1980-May 2007

• Propulsion anomalies
• remain salient
• failure mode to date

8
ELV Launch Failures Relative to Total Launches
US Soviet Early Launches

Initial Launches By New Entrants
9
Percentage of Failed ELV Launches by Country and
Decade
   
10
Summary of Findings to Date - Trends
 
 

• 39 percent occur of failures occur during
  operation of the final stage
• US vehicles have improved in this regard since
  1990s
• Nations generally have early surge in failure
• Then decline and level off
• Propulsion anomalies have been and continue to
  cause most known failures in ELV launches
• All nations
• Liquid, solid and combination

 
 
11
Summary of Findings to Date - Trends
 
 

• Guidance and navigation have historically been
  second leading cause of failure
• Have dropped over time
• Software and computing systems are a growing
  concern
• 8 of failures from 1990-1999
• 21 of failures since 1999

 
 
12
Scope of phase 2

• Historical database on failures of rocket-powered
  aircraft currently being scoped
• Database to focus on
• Post-World War II U.S. government and commercial
  rocket-powered aircraft (such as X-planes, etc.)
• Other Western post-World War II rocket-powered
  aircraft (such as French and British jets with
  auxiliary rocket engines)
• Post-World War II Soviet rocket-powered aircraft
• World War II and earlier projects (German ME 163,
  etc.)
• Research to include NASA logs and other primary
  sources

13
Path Forward

• Updating ELV Database as launches occur
• Historical Database of rocket powered lifting
  bodies in progress
• Scoping for Relevance
• Will update summary and database by next COMSTAC
• Provides opportunity for RLV community to learn
  from anomalies in ELVs and rocket-powered lifting
  bodies