Newspapers in the Second Millennium

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Newspapers in the Second Millennium

• Ronald Mulder, MORI Research
• NAA-Research FederationJune 15, 2000

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A Confusing Time!
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Feeling if Could Not Read a Daily Newspaper
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Method Preferred to Receive News and Information
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Agreement with Statement I feel people can be
adequately informed just by watching the news on
television.
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Audience Segmentation
Predisposed to Newspapers?
Yes
No
At-Risk
Loyal
Yes
Frequent Reader?
Poor Prospect
No
Potentials
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The Original Model-ASNE 1990
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MORI Model-1999
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MORI Model-2000
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MORI Model-2015
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Loyals by Age
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Implications
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Implications Gains from Potentials will not
offset losses from At Risks
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Implications More Churn

• 19 of newspaper audience at risk in 1990.
• 28 of newspaper audience at risk in 2015

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Implications Continued Erosion of soft days

• Single copy readers exhibit a net exodus from
• Tuesday
• Wednesday
• Saturday

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Implications 7-Day Subscriptions Will Decrease
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Implications Continued Price Sensitivity

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The Internet Will Hasten These Changes.
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Number of Years to Reach 50 Penetration

• 19 Years--Color Television
• 14 Years--VCR
• 6 Years--Internet

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The Internet Reaches Younger Residents

• 67 of 18-24 year olds regularly use Internet to
  gather information.
• 59 say Internet is more useful than newspapers.
• 53 say Internet is more useful than TV.

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After Two Years, Daily Internet Usage Skyrockets
Base Total Adults
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After Two Years, Internet Shopping Skyrockets
Base Total Adults
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On-line Employment Ads Will Show Dramatic Gains
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Internet and News Information

• 33 of adults go online for news at least once a
  week--up from 20 in 1998.
• 15 go online daily for news.
• Internet equals newspapers as a source of stock
  market updates among investors.
• Internet is twice as important as newspapers
  among active traders.

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Sensible Responses

• Exercise, stay in shape--postpone the inevitable!
• NIE programs are critical.
• Smaller, more compact newspapers with more
  revenue from circulation?
• Continue traditional upscale strengths.
• Maintain gate-keeper role to provide a credible
  beacon of information.

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Newspapers in the Second Millennium

• Ronald Mulder, MORI Research
• NAA-Research FederationJune 15, 2000