10 Trends Affecting the Future of Higher Education

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10 Trends Affecting the Future of Higher
Education

• Ralph Wolff
• President and Executive Director
• Senior College Commission, WASC
• World Future Society

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Overview of U.S. Higher Education

• Greatest diversity of institutions in the world
• Long considered the best system in the world
• Major innovations independent boards of
  trustees, community colleges, open access
• Massification since Korean War

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Mission Differentiation

• Research
• Liberal arts
• Comprehensive universities
• Community colleges
• Faith-based
• Specialized/single purpose
• One solution never fits all.

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Institutions

• Public 4-year institutions 643
• Public 2-year institutions 1,045
• Private 4-year institutions, nonprofit 1,533
• Private 4-year institutions, for-profit 453
• Private 2-year institutions, nonprofit 107
• Private 2-year institutions, for-profit 533
• Total 4,314

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Where Students Go

• Public 4-year institutions 6,955,013
  (39)
• Public 2-year institutions 6,225,120
  (35)
• Private 4-year institutions 4,285,317 (24)
• Private 2-year institutions 293,420 (1)
  
• Total 17,758,870
• 81 of all freshmen in the fall of 2006 who had
  graduated from high school in the previous year
  attended colleges in their home states.

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Demographics

• Women 57.3
• Full-time 61.7
• Minority 31.5
• Foreign 3.4

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1. Financial Meltdown

• At a time of increased need for higher education
• Public funding cuts
• Endowment decline gt 20
• Crunch on lines of credit
• Limits on tuition increases at private
  institutions
• Increases at public universities

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3-5 Year Setting

• Every state will have a structural deficit
• Pell increases do not make up differences
• 50 billion stimulus money for higher education
  is one time, focused
• Student debt load increasing
• Student work hours increasing

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Short Medium Term Consequences

• Immediate response is to freeze and cut, not
  restructure
• Will shift most public supported institutions to
  public assisted
• Lead to search for new sources of revenue --
  increased business partnerships, joint ventures
• Need for new models are they out there?

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2. President Obamas Priorities

• Highest proportion of college graduates in the
  world by 2020 (40 ? 60)
• National high school exit standards
• Linked to college readiness standards
• 15 billion community college initiative
• 50 million for free online courses
• Centers to develop and share best practices

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Short Medium Term Impact

• Shift toward vocational and technical
  education/jobs
• Partnering with major Gates and Lumina Foundation
  Initiatives
• Recognition that community colleges are today
  what high schools were 30 years ago
• Increased access through open admissions
• Increased participation of underrepresented
  groups

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3. Influence of For Profits and Market Capital

• Fastest growing sector
• Increasing mergers, acquisitions
• Conversion of nonprofit universities
• Joint ventures with mainline institutions
• Growth, scalability and high profitability of
  proprietary systems
• Increasing connections with industry e.g., 500
  million BP grant to Berkeley

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4. Technology and Distance Education

• gt 2 million students
• Growing rapidly, increasing competition
• Hybrid programs most effective
• Greatest number within traditional settings
• High tech does not always mean high enrollment
• Can be centers of high profit
• Continuing Congressional concerns

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5. Internationalization

• Lincoln Commission value to US students of
  study abroad
• Increase in international students in US
• Increased competition here and abroad for best
  international students
• Infusion of international perspectives -- a
  course or a holistic perspective?

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6. Globalization

• International recognition of importance of higher
  education
• Major investments in local systems
• Bologna Process will have significant impact over
  time
• Cross-border offerings increasing Australian
  medical school opening in US new programs and
  institutions in China, former Soviet bloc, Middle
  East
• Creation of new partnerships, joint degrees, dual
  degrees

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7. Quality Assurance and Accountability

• Completion rates
• Placement rates
• Learning results
• Costs
• Debt load
• Executive compensation
• Board accountability

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Has Quality Declined?

• NAAL Performance of college graduates and those
  with graduate degrees 1992 to 2003
• -- college graduates proficient in English
  fell from 40 to 31
• -- Proficient in prose literacy fell from 51
  to 41
• National Survey of Americas College Students
  significant numbers of college grads (20-30)
  have only basic quantitative skills
• No significant differences between public and
  private institutions
• In 2 year schools, no significant difference
  based on academic or technical curricula
• Employers college grads lack skills for the
  workplace (AACU surveys)

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6 Year Graduation Rates at 4-year Institutions

• All 56.4
• Men 53.0
• Women 59.2
• Visit www.edtrust.org College Results Online

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Global Competitiveness

• Drop in high school graduation rates (77.5)
• Dropped from 1st to 7th in college participation
  rates of 18-24 year olds
• 2d for 35-64 yr. olds 10th for 25-34
• 15th in completion rates
• Lower than OECD average for science and math
  literacy for 15 yr. olds (PISA scores)

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8. Sustainability and the University

• Presidents Climate Commitment
• Involvement of professional associations
• Moving from facilities to curriculum to
  institutionalization
• Major area of scientific research
• Need equal work in social and behavioral
  sciences, arts and humanities for the change in
  consciousness needed

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9. 21st Century Learning Competencies

• We are responsible for preparing our students to
  address problems we cannot foresee with knowledge
  that has not yet been developed using technology
  not yet invented.
• The problems we have cannot be solved at the
  same level of thinking at which we created them.
  Albert Einstein

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Is Higher Education Primarily for Economic Gain?
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Or Developing the Nations Talent and Creativity?
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Changing Character of Knowledge

• Sources of Knowledge
• education institution ? everywhere
  (deinstitutionalized learning)
• Understanding of Knowledge
• static ? dynamic (openness to new knowledge,
  ability to unlearn)
• Structure of Knowledge
• compartmental ? holistic
• Nature of Knowledge
• external authority ? personal and contextual

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21st Century Skills
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10. New Forms of Institutions

• Institutional consolidations/closures
• Cloud programs across institutions
• The partnering university
• Privatized public universities
• Credit banks
• Transnational universities

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What Is On Your List?

• Ralph Wolff
• rwolff_at_wascsenior.org