TECHNOLOGIES FOR TOMORROW

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TECHNOLOGIES FOR TOMORROW

• Michael A. Einhorn, Ph.D.
• Affiliate
• Center for U.S. Ukrainian Relations
• meinhornphd_at_yahoo.com

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UKRAINIAN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

• Software and Outsourcing
• Academic Science
• Mining and Metals
• Agriculture
• Energy

3
HISTORICAL MODELS FOR INDUSTRIALIZATION

• 1860 U. S. and Germany (growth in technology
  helped by academics and government)
• Poland and Hungary follow
• 1880-1960 Japan (imitation, management)
• 1960-2010 Taiwan and South Korea (information
  technology)
• 1990 India (software)

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STIMULATING ECONOMIC GROWTH

• market economies
• Information technology
• intellectual property
• basic research funding
• spillovers synergies
• academic and industrial clusters
• first mover advantages
• gains from imitation
• network and cluster effects
• user networks and declining costs
• ON THE SHOULDERS OF GIANTS

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KEY TRENDS IN INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY

• MAINFRAME TO PC information becomes more
  accessible.
• MOORES LAW chip speed double ever 18 months
• MEMORIES improve
• PRIVATE NETWORKS data can be exchanged through
  software-defined channels.
• INTERNET, INTRANET, AND WEB open networks
• CLOUD COMPUTING move functionalities back into
  network through software and
• CHEAP INFORMATION APPLIANCES put software
  intelligence in network, off personal computer

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INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES

• fiber optic
• packet switching
• storage
• Private and virtual private networks
• computer assisted design, manufacture,
  engineering
• world wide web
• cloud computing

• outsourcing
• joint ventures
• strategic alliances
• LDC development
• cyber-communities
• RD consortia
• open source
• Open innovation

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INFORMATION ARENAS

• outsourcing
• joint ventures
• strategic alliances
• consortium research
• cyber-communities
• open source
• open innovation

• outsourcing
• joint ventures
• strategic alliances
• LDC development
• cyber-communities
• RD consortia
• open source
• Open innovation

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CLOUD COMPUTING

• Computing platforms in the network, not the edge
• Network provides software-enabled virtual
  services
• PCs need less or no software they became cheaper
  and enable more connectivity
• Less need for dedicated capital expenditures
• Dynamically scalable
• Providers Sun, IBM, Amazon, Google, Yahoo,
  Microsoft, Vmware
• Users General Electric, Procter Gamble,
  Vmware

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SOFTWARE NETWORKS IN BANGALORE

• General Electric installed first dam in 1902
• Understood Indian competence in ST
• Established campus in Bangalore for engineering
  research
• Developed outsourcing center 22,000
• Call center, back office, software development,
  product design, RD
• Virtual plastics plant Spain/India
• 50 of GEs software is now developed in India

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WHAT SOFTWARE ENABLES

• Instant access to manufacturing process -- CAD,
  CAM, CAE
• Process modularity, optimal location, and
  feedback
• Wider connectivity, cyber-meshes, and team
  production
• Cloud computing- information in network, not
  nodes
• Interactivity, Virtual organization, and
  experimental science
• Knowledge Emergence
• Academic, government, business interconnection

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OPEN RESEARCH INNOVATION

• Conducted in real or virtual research groups
• Primary data and methodologies can be posted
  which can be added to/interpreted by any
  qualified collaborators.
• Virtual scientific experiments are possible
• Knowledge emerges and end-products arise from
  many contributions distributed throughout the
  network.
• Can be preferred to proprietary research if
  positive network effects arise from collaboration
  

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ACADEMIC SCIENCE

• Academics share ideas German metals, U.S.
  agriculture
• Industry partnerships government roundtables
• Academic goes commercial U.S. Biotechnology
• Spillovers and local economy effects Stanford,
  MIT
• National competitive advantage Japan, Korea,
  Taiwan

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VIRTUAL ORGANIZATIONS

• A virtual organization is one whose members are
  geographically apart, usually working by computer
  e-mail and groupware while appearing to others to
  be a single, unified organization with a real
  physical location.
• VIRTUAL CORPORATIONS outsource the majority of
  functions
• VIRTUAL BUSINESSES operate without a
  corresponding physical identity and transact
  entirely via the Internet
• VIRTUAL ENTERPRISES share resources to achieve
  their goals

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CLUSTERS CRITICAL MASSES

• Factor endowment or academic/research geographic
  core
• Increase cost-economies and process
  productivities through relationships, scale/scope
  efficiencies and network effects
• Extend core competencies through
  learning-by-doing and information-sharing
• Educated labor pool and social relationships
• Create innovations, spin-offs, and economic zones
  
• Foreign investors, partners, joint ventures,
  strategic alliances

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HI-TECH CLUSTERS

• Computer U.S. Silicon Valley, Boston, Austin,
  Research Triangle, Seattle, Albany
• Pharma and Biotech New Jersey, New Mexico,
  Research Triangle, Leiden, Switzerland,
• Europe Delft, Eindhoven, Oeiras, Heidelberg,
  Stockholm (telecom), Hilversum (multimedia),
  Toulouse (aerospace), Grenoble (micro-technologies
  ), Cambridge (biotech), Tuttlingen (surgical
  instruments)

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SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT

• system of agents and technologies involved in
  transform raw materials and components into
  deliverable product
• production links include extraction, component
  construction, assembly, merging, transportation,
  storage, distribution.
• optimization balances sourcing, distribution
  capacity, inventory costs, and TD.
• global supply chains Ford, Intel, Apple, Boeing
• manufacture parts, not products
• nations develop and specialize in core
  competencies.

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UKRAINIAN SOFTWARE AND OUTSOURCING

• .
• Termed most attractive and fastest growing
  outsourcing destination in East. Europe by
  GoalEurope.com.
• Market size 246 million in 2006, up 47 from
  previous year .
• 30,000 IT graduates per year
• Of the 70 companies interviewed, seven employed
  300 people whilst 21 had 100.
• Economically competitive with EU
• Poland and other EU members now seek qualified IT
  resources in Ukraine.
• Germany employs 6 of all outsourcing resources
  in Ukraine.
• Big firms Siemens, Phillips, Alcatel,
  Flextronics, HP

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VIRTUAL DESIGN IN UKRAINE

• planes, ships, trucks buses, cars, trains
• computer and electronic equipment,
• precision instruments
• agricultural machines and sugar refining,
• TV and radiosets,
• chemicals and textiles
• OUTSOURCING, DIFFUSION, GLOBALIZATION

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UKRAINIAN METALS

• 25 of industrial output and 40 of goods exports
  
• vast deposits of iron/manganese ores and bauxite
• coking coal and non-metallic materials
  limestone, molding sand, and refractory clay.
• gold, titanium, potassium, magnesium, table salt,
  sulfur
• dense transport network efficient delivery of
  raw materials and goods to the plants.
• reliable workforce training
• machine building industry and other industrial
  buyers
• superconducting materials, hard alloys, and pure
  metals
• export goods and ideas ?
• import Western/Japanese/Chinese technology ?

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UKRAINIAN AGRICULTURE

• Wheat harvesting and sugar refining
• Ukrainian research labs (e.g., soil at Lviv
  Odessa)
• American land grant universities
• Pollution, toxicity, and pest control
• fertilizer production
• water use and dams
• farm machinery (metals)
• plant genetics and new products

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UKRAINIAN ENERGY

• oil substitutes coal, shale, hydro electric
• safe nuclear
• alternatives wind, thermal waters, safe nuclear
• superconductivity
• smart (software modulated) grids
• Improved metallurgy

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SMART ELECTRICITY GRIDS

• dispatch/routing automatic efficient
  self-healing
• programmable and controllable appliances
• metering, real time pricing, load shedding
• can integrate power and telecom channels
• now receives 50 of venture K in U.S. cleantech
  sector
• smart devices/integration Cisco/Google
• wide area Smart Grids Technology in Europe
• local Austin (TX), Ontario, Telegestore (IT)
• U.S 2009 11 b of government aid

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ECONOMIC PRESCRIPTION

• Extend advantages in ag mining move beyond
  commodity-based economy
• Promote core competencies in STEM develop
  educational and research bases and networks
• Use IT to integrate core-specific technologies
  with global community
• Develop local economic clusters in
  ag/mining/academic regions outsource when
  possible to rural areas.
• Produce parts and Integrate into global supply
  chains
• Create accounting transparency seek direct
  foreign investment
• Promote exports in world markets encourage
  domestic savings