Utility, Persuasion & Parenting, and Scientists in the Crib

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Utility, Persuasion Parenting, and Scientists
in the Crib
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From Expected Value to Expected Utility

• Expected Value (of a bet or a choice)
  likelihood of winning/probability times the
  size of the potential payoff
• EV LW (0-100) x SPP (0-infinity)
• The Expected Value of betting 5 on a coin toss
  is 5
• - (EV) 0.5 or 50 heads x 10
  (payoff/pot)
• - You can expect either heads or tails, with
  equal
• likelihood. So you know precisely that
  you have
• a 50 chance of winning and a 50 chance of
  losing.
• But everyday life is often quite different in
  that the EV for many decision scenarios is
  often subjective.
• (e.g., should I join the basketball team or
  chess clubboth meet at 3pm?)

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From Expected Value to Expected Utility

• Lightning or flying in an airplane poses the same
  exact risk for everyone, but not everyone has the
  same tolerance for risk.
• Hence, the EV for people varies, even when the
  probability/likelihood of winning (LW) and the
  size of the potential payoff (SPP) are exactly
  the same.
• - EV becomes EU (Expected Utility)
• Scenario Harvard/Yale/Princeton/Dartmouth/Stanfor
  d 75 admissions scenario (you choose)

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Subjective-Expected-Utility

• But what do you do when the probability or
  likelihood of winning (LW) is NOT known?
• How do you determine what the Expected Utility
  (EU) will be when the probabilities (LW) of
  future outcomes are not well defined?
• Answer -- People make them (LW estimates) up
  based on their own intuitions, previous
  experiences, word-of-mouth, especially from
  people you respect (trendsetters)!

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Persuasion

• Because so many decisions you make in life, then,
  involve unknown probabilities and because people
  respond to this by making up probabilities based
  on things like personal experience and
  word-of-mouth, the ability to persuade is of
  enormous significance.
• The Hidden (in Plain Sight) Persuaders

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The Hidden (in Plain Sight) Persuaders
BzzReport of the Month BzzAgent
LHardegreePlaytex Bottles06/16/06 I attended a
breastfeeding support group meeting for new and
expectant Moms. We were discussing what to do if
you have to be separated from your baby for a
period of time... how to get them to eat. Several
moms were saying that either they were afraid to
give their babies a bottle because of concern the
baby would become confused and have trouble
nursing. Other moms were saying that they were
having a hard time finding bottles that would
work for their baby either because the baby would
not accept the bottle or others because the baby
got bad gas from air bubbles when bottle feeding.
I brought up the Playtex Drop-In nurser and the
VentAire bottles. We discussed the benefits of
the Drop-In nurser, but the woman running the
group kept saying the VentAire bottles would not
be a good choice because they did not come in a
wide neck version with a nipple designed for easy
transition from breast to bottle and back. I
commented that I wasn't aware of that either
until just recently when I received one (as part
of the BzzKit) but that they do, in fact, now
come in a wide neck version. I commented that I
was really glad to see that as there are not many
options for a slanted bottle with the wide neck
and that type of nipple. She kept insisting that
I must be mistaken. I said I would bring mine in
at the next meeting to show her. Several moms
asked for more info on that bottle to check out!
Later this evening the woman who ran the meeting
called me at home to apologize and said she went
to check it out and found that they do now have a
wide neck version. She was very glad to have that
information and said she would be updating the
list of information she gives to new and
expectant moms that includes a list of products
to try that will help with those little
breastfeeding challenges.
Tremor Teens are Trend Spreaders "I really
like to be the first one in my group to get the
latest info and tell others about the scoop. My
friends always come to me for the latest. I love
being the "source" and "in the know." I actively
check out what's new and hot, so I can fill
everybody in when I am hanging out at school or
at the mall."
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Non-Verbal Cues

• examples
• - Peter Jennings ABC News
• (Gladwell, pp. 74-80)
• - college tuition/headphone experiments
• (Gladwell, pp. 77-78)
• One of the main reasons people with autism
  struggle so much!

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Baby Steps Nature via Nurture

• the 0-to-3 movement
• animal experiments that highlight the role of
  nature and nurture in brain development
• Terrible Twos . . . What are they?
• Children show scientific-like behavior very
  early they develop theories and interpret
  evidence (data) from the world around them (e.g.,
  Berkeley psychology professor, Alison Gopniks,
  experiments with 14-month-old toddlers).
• What are some of the possible public policy
  implications of the research on neurological
  development in children?

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Adolescent/Teen Research Do Parents Matter?

• Judith Rich Harris New Jersey housewife and the
  Nurture Assumption
• nature vs. nurture (genes vs. environment) and
  the Colorado Adoption Project adopted kids and
  their parents
• - parents who smoke and their children
• - the Cinderella effect, spanking, picky
  eating (home and school effects)
• Harris argument Whatever our parents do to us
  is overshadowed, in the long run, by what our
  peers do to us.

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Adolescent/Teen Research Do Parents Matter?

• Implication Is a child better off living in a
  troubled family in a good neighborhood than
  living in a good family in a troubled
  neighborhood?
• Do peers trump parents?
• Whats worse fatherlessness or poverty?