The Public and Foreign Policy

1
The Public and Foreign Policy

• Public Opinion Trends
• Elections
• The Media

2
Public Opinion Trends

• Elites, Interested- Disinterested-Public
• http//www.ccfr.org/globalviews2004/index.htm
• Honeymoon
• Rally Round the Flag
• Halo
• Public Diplomacy (PsyOps)

3
Prudent Public?

• Bruce Jentleson Public knows what it likes
  concerning the use of force
• Impose Foreign Policy Restrain (FPR)
• Force Internal Political Change (IPC)

4
Support Use of Force?

• Libya 1986 IPC FPR
• Polls higher if asked FPR
• Panama 1989 IPC
• Support after operation Halo
• Persian Gulf Reflagging 1987 FPR
• Support high, despite RR low credibility
• Nicaragua mid-1980s IPC
• Support Low

5
One more good one--

• Afghanistan late-1980s IPC FPR
• Mixed goals, mixed support
• Support for US-supported Mujaheddin fell to
  all-time lows following Soviet withdrawal in
  October 1988

6
Elections and Foreign Policy

• Foreign Policy can affect elections
• Daisy commercial in 1964
• Nixons Secret Plan to end the Vietnam War
• Dukakiss tank in 1988
• Re-Made Daisy in 2000
• Iraq, OBL, in 2004??
• See http//www.ammi.org/livingroomcandidate/

7
Other Electoral Trends

• Rallies, Haloes, and the Diversionary Theory of
  War?
• Wag the Dog
• Carter and the Hostages in 1980
• Bush and Saddam in summer 1992
• U.S.S. Cole in 2000?
• Keep it off the Agenda?
• Bosnia in 1995?
• Middle East in 2000?

8
How Elections Affect Foreign Policy

• Elections pick winners
• Winners bring people into government with them
• Elected and appointed officials make policy
  decisions
• They (President and Congress) put people into the
  Judiciary
• Bush differences from Gore, e.g. 

9
Media and Foreign Policy

• Media as a Medium
• Information deliverers and Opinion shapers?
• Views also shaped President via persuasive
  communication and symbolic politics
• Indexing
• Priming
• Presidential Advantages
• Media not a Monolith

10
Media Bias?

• Liberal bias?
• Business bias?
• CNN Effect
• Uncritical acceptance and incomplete
• Stenographers?