Foreign Policy Analysis

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Foreign Policy Analysis

• University of Helsinki, Department of Political
  Science, Fall 2003
• Christer Pursiainen
• For downloading the Power Point presentation, go
  to
• www.kolumbus.fi/christer.pursiainen
• ? teaching

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Contents

• Foreign Policy Analysis and IR
• First models
• A rational state
• or a bureaucratic policy model
• or an organisational model?
• The role of cognitive factors
• Foreign policy change
• Discourses and storylines

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1. Foreign Policy Analysis and IR

• Economics Strategy History
  Philosophy International Law
• Thucydides Aquinas
• 16th
• 17th Machiavelli Grotius
  
• 18th Smith
• 19th Marx Clausewitz
  Rousseau Kant
• 20th Imperialism theories History
  of Diplomacy
• Geography Geopolitics
• WWI The birth of the discipline
• 1920-30s IDEALISM
• WWII REALISM Traditionalism
  First Debate
• 1950s Functionalism
• Natural sciences SCIENTISM FPA
  
  Second Debate
• 1960s Peace research
  Realism revisited Third
  Debate
• 1970s Dependency (Marxism) NEOREALISM LIBERALISM
  
• 1980s Critical theory
  Rationalism
  INSTITUTIONALISM
• Humanities Feminism Fourth debate
• 1990s Postmodernism CONSTRUCTIVISM
• 2000s Postructuralism Developed Game theory
  Fifth Debate?
  

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1. Foreign Policy Analysis and IR

• which actor or agent?
• which action principle?
• object of explanation?
• structure of explanation?

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2. First models
Snyder et al. 1954
External setting
Internal setting
Decision-making process
Social structure and behavior
Action
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2. First models
Brecher et al. 1968
Operational environment
external/ levels
internal/ issue areas
Communications
Decision-making elite
Psychological environment attitudional
prism elite images
external/ levels
internal/ issue areas
Formulation of foreign policy decisions by issue
areas
Decision implementation
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3. A rational state?

• giving preference to a better alternative of
  those available when trying to fulfil desires and
  objectives
• rational choice theory shows us what to do to
  achieve our goals, but it does not tell what we
  want to achieve

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3. A rational state?

• in parametrical choices an actor is under
  external limitations that are mostly given or
  parametrical
• the task of an actor is to assess these
  restrictions and then decide what to do
• in strategic choice situations there is a mutual
  dependency of a decision
• these situations are studied with game theory,
  that is, with a game of two or n-players

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3. A rational state?
Prisoners dilemma
Y
non-cooperation
cooperation
(x,y)
1,4
3,3
cooperation
4 best
3 second best
X
2 second worst
1 worst
4,1
2,2
non-cooperation
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3. A rational state?
Chicken
Y
non-cooperation
cooperation
(x,y)
2,4
3,3
cooperation
4 best
3 second best
X
2 second worst
1 worst
4,2
1,1
non-cooperation
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3. A rational state?
x chooses (between negotiations or a violent
solution/threat)
y chooses
x chooses
alternative outcomes and their utility
functions for x and y
nego
cap
war
cap
war
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3. A rational state?
Allisons three models 1971
Black box
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4. or the bureaucratic policy model?
Allisons three models 1971
a d e f b c
Black box
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5. or the organisational model?
Allisons three models 1971
a d e f b c
Leaders
Black box
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6. The role of cognitive factors?

• a human beings ability to process information
• for some reason a person almost always neglects
  some of the alternatives, or refuses to perceive
  given information
• the facts do not say or tell anything by
  themselves

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6. The role of cognitive factors?

• an actor must choose them, put in order and
  classify them, to give them meaning, and then act
  on the basis of knowledge thus accumulated
• adopted attitudes or belief systems can make
  decision-makers to close their mind to
  controversial information

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6. The role of cognitive factors?

• faced with critical information a person is
  inclined to misunderstand it, to deny it or leave
  it totally unnoticed
• all information is interpreted whenever possible
  so that it supports existing beliefs
• when a change is necessary, the first way out is
  chosen
• post factum rationalisation

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6. The role of cognitive factors?

• groupthink
• an urge to agree is greater than the urge to find
  the best possible solution
• after the decision, the risk of breaking the
  consensus appears greater than the risk of faulty
  decision
• strict boundaries to outsiders and opponents

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6. The role of cognitive factors?

• crisis decision-making
• a threat to essential goals
• time pressure
• a lot of unpredictable factors

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6. The role of cognitive factors?

• number of misjudgements and miscalculations
  increase
• aggressive inclinations more frequent
• consideration of relevant facts more selective

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6. The role of cognitive factors?

• the ability to abstract from details weakens
• more difficult to tolerate complexity
• the difference between irrelevant and essential
  disappears

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7. Foreign policy change?

• early studies on foreign policy adaption or
  cybernetics
• a new interest from the early 1980s onward
• increased focus after the end of the Cold War

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7. Foreign policy change?

• Hermann 1990
• Degrees of foreign policy change
• revision of policy (quantitative)
• programmatic change (qualitative)
• redefining the problem
• reorientation of foreign policy
• sources leader driven bureaucratic advocacy
  domestic restructuring external shock

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7. Foreign policy change?
Holsti 1992

• Independent variables
• external factors
• domestic factors
• historical and cultural factors

• Intervening variables
• policy-makers perceptions and calculations
• policy-making process
• personality factors
• elite attitudes towards external actors

• Dependent variables
• intent to restructure foreign policy

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7. Foreign policy change?
Goldmann 1988
policy-making system
conditions
composition
policies
ideas, learning
power-balance
residual factors
stabilizers
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7. Foreign policy change?

• organisational and inividual learning
• feedback reactions
• adaptive reactions (new circumstances)
• simple vs. complex learning

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7. Foreign policy change?
Carlsnaes 1992
Structure
Conditions
Institutional settings
Agency
foreign policy action
Values
Choice
Perceptions
Preferences
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7. Foreign policy change?
Carlsnaes 1992
Structure II
Structure I
Agency
Agency
action I
action II
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8. Discourses and storylines
Ó Tuathail
Foreign Policy Process
Story-Line Construction
Cultural storehouse
Deliberative Public Arena
Media representations
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Foreign Policy Analysis

• University of Helsinki, Department of Political
  Science, Fall 2003
• Christer Pursiainen
• For downloading the Power Point presentation, go
  to
• www.kolumbus.fi/christer.pursiainen
• ? teaching