Hazards of large magmatichydrothermal systems

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Hazards of Large Magmatic-Hydrothermal Systems
Hugo Delgado Instituto de Geofísica, UNAM
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Overview

• Volcanic hazards and megacities (PowerPoint 1)
• Volcanic hazard assessment at the restless Campi
  Flegrei caldera (Italy) (PowerPoint 2)
• Volcanic hazard assessment at the Masaya caldera
  (Nicaragua) (PowerPoint 3)

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Volcanic Hazards and Megacities
Grant Heiken Los Alamos National Laboratory
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Global Urban Population at Risk?
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Volcanic Eruption Phenomena and Hazards

• Understanding Volcanic HazardsVideo produced
  by the International Association of Volcanology
  and Chemistry of the Earths Interior

• Ash fall
• Pyroclastic (ash) flows
• Lava Flows
• Lahars (volcanic mudflows)

• Earthquakes
• Tsunamis
• Volcanic Gases

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Manila, Philippines

• Population, metro area10 million
• Two caldera complexes, many smaller volcanoes
• Last large-scale eruptionTaal, 5380 years ago
• Last significant eruption in the regionPinatubo,
  1991

PhiVolcs
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Manila, Philippines

• Potential risks from
• Ash fall
• Pyroclastic (ash) flows
• Gases
• Lava flows (low probability)

• Response and Planning
• Mapping of deposits from past eruptions
• Geophysical monitoring
• Emergency response plans (near Taal, but not
  Manila)
• Education (near Taal), including the public and
  students

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Auckland, New Zealand
Kermode, 1992

• Population 1 million
• Located in a 360 km2 volcanic field scoria cones
  and tuff rings
• 49 volcanoes erupted during the last 140,000
  years
• Last eruption about 1000 years ago

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Auckland, New Zealand

• Potential risks from
• Ash fall ballistic ejecta
• Pyroclastic surges
• Gases
• Lava flows
• Potential hazards of pyroclastic flows from
  distant calderas

• Response and Planning
• Mapping of deposits from past eruptions
• Geophysical monitoring
• Emergency response plans evacuation and
  infrastructure protection
• Education including the public and students

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Quito, Ecuador

• Population1.1 million
• Located below Guagua Pichincha, a large composite
  cone (stratovolcano)
• 12 eruption periods since 1533 AD.
• Erupting now (since October, 1999)

M. Hall
El Comercio
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Quito, Ecuador

• Response and Planning
• Mapping of deposits from past eruptions
• Geophysical monitoring
• Emergency response plans evacuation, cleanup
• Education including the public and students
• Especially good reporting on eruptions in the
  newspapers

• Potential risks from
• Ash fall ballistic ejecta
• Pyroclastic flows
• Mudflows (lahars)
• Gases

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Seattle/Tacoma, Washington, USA

• Population, metro Seattle and Tacoma3.4 million
• Mount Rainier, large composite cone
  (strato-volcano) east of the cities
• Over the last several thousand years, lahars
  (mudflows) have reached the lowlands every
  500-1000 years
• Minimal risk from Mt. Baker and Glacier Peak
  volcanoes (northeast of Seattle)

USGS, 1997
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Seattle/Tacoma, Washington, USA

• Response and Planning
• Mapping and dating of deposits from past
  eruptions
• Geophysical monitoring, especially seismic
  detection of collapse and flow monitors along
  valleys
• Emergency response plans for communities along
  valleys warning systems
• Educationstudents and public

• Potential risks from
• Lahars (mudflows) along valleys radiating from
  Mt. Rainier
• Minimal risk from ash fall fallout usually to
  the east

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Napoli, Italy
US Army, 1944
Orsi et al., 1998
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Napoli, Italy

• Population, metro area 3 million
• Vesuvius frequent historic eruptions last
  eruption 1944 AD
• Phlegrean Fields two calderas (last large
  eruption 12,000 years ago) multiple smaller
  scoria cones and tuff rings (last eruption-1538
  AD) restless calderas

Il Mattino, 1906
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Napoli, Italy

• Potential risks from
• Earthquakes, uplift and subsidence
• Ash fall and pumice fall
• Pyroclastic surges and flows
• Secondary debris flows (lahars)
• Lava Flows
• Gases
• Panic

• Response and Planning
• Mapping and dating of deposits from past
  eruptions tectonic framework
• Geophysical monitoring Seismic, GPS, Gases,
  Tilt, Temperature variation, etc.
• Emergency response plans with Civil Defense,
  City, Province
• Educationstudents and public museums
  publications public lectures and TV
  presentations

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Potential Problems Common to All Volcano Cities
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(No Transcript)
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(No Transcript)
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The Goal for all Volcano Cities during the 21st
Century
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IDNDRIAVCEI Decade VolcanoProjects-"Reducing
Volcanic Disasters LeaderChris Newhall

• Decade Volcanoes Near Cities
• Colima, Mexico (Colima)
• Merapi, Indonesia (Yogyakarta)
• Mount Rainier, USA (Seattle-Tacoma)
• Santa Maria, Guatemala (Quezaltenango)
• Taal, Philippines (Manila, Batangas)
• Sakurajima, Japan (Kagoshima City)
• Vesuvius, Italy (Napoli)
• Galeras, Colombia (Pasto)
• Teide, Spain (Santa Cruz de Tenerife)
• Avachinsky-Koriaksky, Russia (Petropavlovsk-Kamcha
  tsky

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Disciplines Represented at Cities on Volcanoes
(Roma Napoli, 1998)

• Volcanology
• Geographic Information Systems
• Public Health
• Remote Sensing
• Risk Analysis
• Civil Engineering
• Hydrology
• Sociology Psychology

• Civil Defense
• City Management
• City Planning
• Education
• The Media (Science Reporters)
• City Officials
• Insurance Industry
• Infrastructure management

Cities on Volcanoes-II Auckland, NZ
February, 2001
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What should be done to reduce urban volcanic risk
in the 21st century?

• Follow the examples for integrated programs of
  observation, planning and education established
  in several of the worlds volcano cities. Use
  the potential for Geographic-Information
  System-based integrated analysis, with heavy use
  of visualization to present results.
• Continue to raise the level of awareness of
  volcanic risk. Use all available modern
  educational tools, including the internet.
  Integrate disaster awareness into the culture
  (e.g., a national disaster day). Annual
  training of civil defense officials with virtual
  reality scenarios that require real-time
  responses.

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What should be done to reduce urban volcanic risk
in the 21st century? (continued)

• Earth scientists working for the cities, with
  integrated teams, which include environmental
  scientists, engineers, planners, and social
  scientists to prepare science- and culture-based
  emergency response plans. Frequent workshops and
  meetings like Cities on Volcanoes.
• Provide the scientific basis for cost-benefit
  analyses of the value of mitigation and disaster
  education to decision-makers. Get the politicians
  and business people involved.

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Who pays for urban disaster mitigation in the
volcano cities?

• Traditional support
• The Nation
• The State
• National and international disaster relief
  organizations and NGOs (always comes after an
  eruption very little goes toward mitigation)
• The insurance industry (again, after the
  eruption)
• Non-traditional support
• The insurance industry (great interest in
  mitigation and threat reduction)
• The utilities (infrastructure)mitigation,
  hardening facilities

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Volcanoes, integrated science, and cities in the
21st centurySuggestions for Professional
Geoscience Associations

• GeoRisk program for the International Unions of
  Geodesy and Geophysics and Geological Sciences
• 2000-2010the proposed Decade of Geosciences in
  the Cities with each nation picking a decade
  city for integrated scientific study
• Urban geoscience curricula need to be encouraged
  at universities
• Communicate the importance of geosciences to
  mayors, city planners and engineers
• We (geoscientists) need to come out of the
  woods and into the cities

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Mexico City and Volcanoes

• Continue (possibly increase) support for
  geoscientists at CENAPRED and UNAM
• Education at all levels for the public with
  regard to volcanic hazards and risk
• Geoscientists and atmospheric scientists working
  with urban planning teams for Mexico City