City of Los Angeles Department of City Planning

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City of Los AngelesDepartment of City Planning
City Planning CommissionGrowth Workshop
Citywide Planning Division
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PRESENTATION OVERVIEW

• WHAT IS GROWTH?
• HISTORICAL DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITY AND POPULATION
  INCREASES
• FUTURE NEEDS CREATED BY CONTINUING GROWTH
• INFRASTRUCTURE ISSUES

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WHAT IS GROWTH?

• POPULATION INCREASES
• ECONOMIC EXPANSION
• LAND USE DENSIFICATION/INTENSIFICATION

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POPULATION GROWTH

• NATURAL INCREASE
• NET DOMESTIC MIGRATION
• IMMIGRATION

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POPULATION LEVEL

• DATA SOURCES
• U.S. CENSUS BUREAU
• STATE DEPARTMENT OF FINANCE (DOF)
• PRIVATE VENDORS
• DATA USUALLY MAINTAINED BY CENSUS TRACTS

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ECONOMIC EXPANSION

• TYPES OF MEASURES
• PERSONAL INCOME BUREAU OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS,
  FTB, BLS
• RETAIL SALES BOARD OF EQUALIZATION
• EMPLOYMENT STATE EDD, SCAG (DUN BRADSTREET
  ABI), UI
• RETAIL, OFFICE, INDUSTRIAL SPACE BUILDING PERMITS
  
• LEASING OF COMMERCIAL AND REAL ESTATE BROKERAGE
  FIRMS
• INDUSTRIAL SPACE
• DATA OFTEN CITYWIDE OR COUNTYWIDE, BUT
  DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITY AND JOBS OCCASIONALLY
  AVAILABLE AT CENSUS TRACT LEVEL

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LAND USE DENSIFICATION / INTENSIFICATION

• POPULATION DENSITY
• EMPLOYMENT DENSITY
• BUILDING HEIGHTS
• BUILDING BULK (FAR)
• HOUSING DENSITY
• DATA LARGELY MAINTAINED IN PARCEL LEVEL FILES

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A Growing City - Population
Source Census Bureau, Department of Finance,
Department of City Planning.
Numeric Total
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A Growing City - Population Changes
Source Census Bureau, Department of Finance,
Department of City Planning.
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A Growing City - Employment
Source Employment Development Department, SCAG.
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A Growing City - Employment Changes
Source Employment Development Department, SCAG.
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Comparing Population and Housing
Source Census Bureau, DOF , and DCP.
Numeric Total
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Comparing Population and Housing
Source Census Bureau, DOF , and DCP.
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Comparing Population and Employment
SourceCensus Bureau, DOF, EDD, and SCAG.
Numeric Total

• Note (1) EDD 1973 Total Employment Estimate.
• Note (2) EDD 1997 Total Employment Estimate.

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Comparing Population and Employment
SourceCensus Bureau, DOF, EDD, and SCAG.
(1)

• Note (1) EDD 1997 Total Employment Estimate.

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Industrial, Retail, and Office Space
Source Department of City Planning, Department
of Building and Safety.
Numeric Total (Square Footage)

• Industrial space includes factory and warehouse.
• Retail space includes store, hotel, restaurant,
  and theater.
• Office spaces includes office.

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Industrial, Retail, and Office Space
Source Department of City Planning, Department
of Building and Safety.

• Industrial space includes factory and warehouse.
• Retail space includes store, hotel, restaurant,
  and theater.
• Office spaces includes office.

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FUTURE NEEDS CREATED BY CONTINUING GROWTH

• LONG TERM ECONOMIC EXPANSION DEPENDS ON PROVISION
  OF
• SUITABLE SITES FOR INDUSTRY,
• ADEQUATE HOUSING,
• SUPPORTING INFRASTRUCTURE, AND
• A SKILLED LABOR FORCE

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ADEQUATE LAND/SPACE FOR EMPLOYMENT GROWTH IS
NEEDED

• TO MAINTAIN PERSONAL INCOMES FOR RESIDENT
  POPULATION
• TO MAINTAIN FISCAL STRENGTH OF THE CITY
• TO STIMULATE ADEQUATE GROWTH OF INDUSTRIAL,
  OFFICE, AND RETAIL ACTIVITY
• TO PROVIDE FOR NEW INDUSTRIES WITH CHANGING SPACE
  REQUIREMENTS
• TO HAVE LOCATIONS WHICH MINIMIZE CONFLICTS WITH
  ADJACENT RESIDENTIAL AREAS
• TO HAVE LOCATIONS WITH ADEQUATE SUPPORTING
  INFRASTRUCTURE

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ADEQUATE HOUSING, ESPECIALLY AFFORDABLE HOUSING,
IS NEEDED

• TO REDUCE THE INCREASING DEFICIT OF SUITABLE
  HOUSING
• TO REDUCE TRAFFIC CONGESTION CAUSED BY
  HOUSING/JOB LOCATION MISMATCH
• TO PROVIDE ADEQUATE LOCAL HOUSING WHICH IS
  ESSENTIAL TO MAINTENANCE OF CONTINUING ECONOMIC
  GROWTH
• TO PROVIDE FOR POPULATION GROWTH WHICH WILL
  RESULT FROM A STRONG ECONOMY

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ADEQUATE SITES FOR INFRASTRUCTURE AND MUNICIPAL
FACILITIES ARE NEEDED

• TO MAINTAIN QUALITY OF LIFE FOR RESIDENT
  POPULATION
• TO FACILITATE ECONOMIC GROWTH ON A LONG TERM
  BASIS
• TO MAINTAIN AN EDUCATED POPULATION
• TO FACILITATE DELIVERY OF PARK, LIBRARY, POLICE,
  AND FIRE SERVICES ..

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ADEQUATE SITES FOR INFRASTRUCTURE AND MUNICIPAL
FACILITIES ARE NEEDED -- CONTINUED

• TO FACILITATE DEVELOPMENT OF INFRASTRUCTURE
  (POWER, SOLID WASTE DISPOSAL, WASTEWATER, WATER
  FACILITIES)
• TO ALLOW FOR NEEDED EXPANSION OF THE PORT AND
  AIRPORTS WHICH FACILITATE ECONOMIC GROWTH AND
  DEVELOPMENT
• TO PROVIDE FOR ADEQUATE MOBILITY WITHIN THE CITY

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REGIONAL TRAFFIC TRENDS

• INCREASE IN AVERAGE NUMBER OF VEHICLES PER
  HOUSEHOLD
• INCREASE IN AVERAGE NUMBER OF TRIPS PER HOUSEHOLD
• VEHICLE MILES TRAVELED (VMT) AND VEHICLE HOURS
  TRAVELLED (VHT) ARE GROWING FASTER THAN
  POPULATION
• TRUCK TRAFFIC IS NOTICEABLY INCREASING
• RIDESHARING (CARPOOLING AND TRANSIT USE) HAS
  DECREASED (SLIGHTLY)
• GAS PRICES (IN ADJUSTED DOLLARS) DECREASING

/Department of Transportation
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POPULATION AND EMPLOYMENT GROWTH LEADS TO MORE
TRAFFIC

• MORE POPULATION MEANS MORE
• HOME TO WORK TRIPS
• HOME TO SCHOOL TRIPS
• HOME TO SHOP TRIPS
• SERVICE TRIPS
• MORE JOBS MEANS MORE
• COMMUTER TRIPS
• CUSTOMER TRIPS
• GOODS DELIVERY TRIPS
• OTHER BUSINESS TRIPS

/Department of Transportation
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RISING INCOMES RESULT IN MORE TRAVEL

• STATISTICS SHOW THAT RISING INCOMES INCREASE
  DEMAND FOR AUTOMOBILE TRAVEL.
• AS INCOMES RISE, HOUSEHOLDS OWN MORE CARS AND
  DRIVE THEM MORE MILES. THE MORE CARS A
  HOUSEHOLD OWNS, THE MORE TRIPS THEY TEND TO
  MAKE. ..

/Department of Transportation
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RISING INCOMES RESULT IN MORE TRAVEL-- CONTINUED

• STATISTIC (ACCORDING TO SCAG 1998 RTP)
• A SINGLE FAMILY DWELLING WITH TWO CARS GENERATES
  AN AVERAGE OF 8 TRIPS PER DAY
• A SINGLE FAMILY DWELLING WITH ONE CAR--- 7 TRIPS
  PER DAY.
• A MULTIPLE FAMILY DWELLING WITH NO CARS --- 4
  TRIPS PER DAY.
• STATISTIC (CMP MONITORING DATA)
• TRAFFIC COUNTS IN LA COUNTY DROPPED SHARPLY
  BETWEEN 1992 AND 1997, IN THE WAKE OF THE
  RECESSION AND DROP IN EMPLOYMENT, THEN ROSE
  SHARPLY IN 1999, DURING THE RECOVERY AND
  RESURGENCE IN EMPLOYMENT.

/Department of Transportation
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EFFECTS OF NEW DEVELOPMENT

• LOCATION
• MAJOR EMPLOYMENT CENTERS WHICH ARE NOT CLOSE TO
  THE EXPECTED LABOR POOL MEANS
  LONGER TRIPS
• CONGESTED CORRIDORS
• SITE SPECIFIC IMPACTS (SUCH AS DRIVEWAY
  LOCATION) CAN CAUSE
• INTERSECTION CONGESTION
• NEIGHBORHOOD IMPACTS ..

/Department of Transportation
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EFFECTS OF NEW DEVELOPMENT-- CONTINUED

• IMPACTS VARY BY TYPE OF LAND USE
• EXAMPLE
• FAST FOOD (1,000 SQ FT) ---------------- 496
  VEHICLE TRIPS (ALREADY ON THE ROAD?)
• LIGHT INDUSTRIAL (70,000 SQ FT)-----490 VEHICLE
  TRIPS (ALL NEW TRIPS AND TRUCK IMPACTS)

/ Department of Transportation
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E-COMMERCE ECONOMY LEADS TO MORE MOBILITY

• THE NEW INFORMATION ECONOMY MAKES HOUSEHOLDS AND
  FIRMS MORE FLEXIBLE THAN EVER IN TERMS OF WHERE
  THEY CAN LOCATE AND WHAT HOURS THEY WORK.
• EFFICIENT TELECOMMUNICATIONS, A FLUID JOB MARKET
  AND FLEXIBLE JOB ARRANGEMENTS ENABLE FIRMS AND
  HOUSEHOLDS TO MOVE AWAY FROM URBAN CENTERS TO
  LESS CROWDED, MORE AFFORDABLE AREAS AT THE URBAN
  FRINGE, GRADUALLY BRINGING URBANIZATION AND
  TRAFFIC WITH THEM.
• WITH ONLY ABOUT A THIRD OF THE WORKFORCE NOW
  ESTIMATED TO BE IN TRADITIONAL 9-TO-5 JOBS, AND
  MORE PEOPLE WORKING OUT OF THEIR HOMES, THERE IS
  MORE POTENTIAL FOR NON-PEAK HOUR TRIP-MAKING.
• E-COMMERCE ENABLES THE JUST IN TIME DELIVERY.
  TRUCKS ARE BECOMING ROLLING WAREHOUSES.

/Department of Transportation
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CONCLUSION

• TRAFFIC CONGESTION IS A BY-PRODUCT OF ECONOMIC
  GROWTH
• THE DEVELOPMENT PROCESS CAN ONLY PARTIALLY
  MITIGATE THE IMPACTS

/Department of Transportation