Climate Change

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• Climate Change
• Health Consequences Healthy Solutions

Fourth Global Conference on Oceans, Coasts, and
Islands 7-10 April 2008, Ha Noi, Viet Nam
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Climate Change and Viet Nam
SLR
DROUGHT 2007
FLOODS Oct 2007
COLD 40 DAYS Jan-Feb 2008
TC
RICE
AQUACULTURE
LIVESTOCK
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Peru1991
Marine Ecosystems

Cholera
Climate Sea Surface Temperatures Extreme Weather
Events
Algal Blooms
Cholera
Cholera
Shrimp Exports and Tourism
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Deep Ocean Warming
Heat content in joules
22 times
Global Hydrological Cycle
Arctic Sea ice Mt glac Antarctic Atm Cont glac
Cont Ocean
Levitus et al. Science 2005
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Precipitation over the Continental U.S
Rain 7
gt2/d 14
gt4/d 20
12-14 snow in Buffalo Jan 2007
Mumbai 37.1 26 July 2005 1, 000 deaths
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West Antarctica Wilkins Ice Shelf Collapse in 10
Days
28 Feb 8 March 2008
MODIS Satellite
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Why is Climate Changing Faster than Models
Project?
380 ppm
?Small Caps
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280 ppm
Medium Polar Caps
CO2
180 ppm
Large Polar Caps
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460 CO2e
? ppm CO2-equivalent
SOxs black soot
CO2 NOxs CFCs methane H2O
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Albedo
Ice melt is accelerating
Sea level rise
H2O vapor
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Building an LME-Based GIS for Health Events
Dermo MSX
POLICIES
CAUSES CONDITIONS CONSEQUENCES
COSTS
HABs
Marine mammal mortalities
S
ADVERSE EVENTS
G
E
Seabird die-offs
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(No Transcript)
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GIS Composite Disease Across Taxa
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Meningitis belt
Burkina Faso, DRC, Sudan and Uganda gt15, 000
cases gt1600 deaths Mar 2007
RVF malaria cholera 2007
Floods
2004-2006
Chikungunya fever
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Coral Bleaching Warming and Microbes
Vibrio shiloi V. coralyticus - infection and
immunity are temperature-dependent -
optimal infection and lysis at 29ºC release
of zooxanthellae
ENSO Secular Trend
- pH 30 below pre-industrial levels
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Natural and Managed Systems
CLIMATE CHANGE FUTURES SWISS RE, UNDP
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TOURISM
Vector-borne diseases Dengue fever and
malaria
Water-borne diseases
Harmful Algal Blooms (Red tides)
Coral bleaching and disease
Hurricanes Dust storms
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Energy sector Vulnerabilities

• Storms oilrigs, pipelines refineries
• Heatwaves and A/C demands
• Tundra and Pipelines
• Mt. Glaciers and Hydropower
• SLR and Nuclear Plants
• Biofuels storms and drought
• Pests, pathogens and weeds

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OIL LIFE CYCLE COSTS
Harm Marine Mammals Shore birds Fisheries C
onsumers Livelihoods Poverty Conflict
Exploration Extraction Transport
crude Refining Transport refined
Spills Leaks
MERCURY
Benzene
Air Pollution
Eutrophication NOxs
Petrochemicals
Acid Rain
Combustion
Warming Oceans Coral Reefs SLR EWEs, spread of
EIDs Melting Polar Ice
Climate Change

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Stabilization Wedges
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Natural Sinks 9. Forest mgmt/nurturing
10. Conservation tillage
Energy Efficiency Conservation 1. Public
transport plug-in hybrids
2. Smart grid distribution, storage, use 3.
Green buildings 4. Conservation
Fossil Fuel-based 11. Switch from Coal to
Nat. Gas 12. C Capture Storage (CCS)
13. H2 Fuel Cells 14. Coal-to-Liquid w/ CCS
Renewables 5. Wind 6. PV/Solar
thermal 7. Geothermal 8. Biofuels
15. Nuclear fission
No regrets Study needed
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Biofuels

• For a stabilization wedge 1/6 cropland
• Biodiesel Monocultures, Indonesian/Malaysian
  forest fires
• Prices Corn and wheat
• Food and feed security
• Carbon pulse

Palm Oil Plantations
Cumulative CO2 from SE Asian Fires
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Distributed Generation Distributed
Development Water Purification Pump
ing Irrigation
Desalinization
Harmonizing Adaptation and Mitigation
MDGs
Schools Clinics Homes Computers Cooking
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Solar Thermal Desalination
Water Pyramid
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Conclusions

• Health X Taxa Integrating indicator
• Ocean nourishes, heals and regulates climate
  weather
• Clean energy transition serves adaptation
  mitigation
• Oil coal health, environmental social costs
• Healthy solutions avoid unintended health,
  environmental and liability/insurance
  consequences
• Upstream drivers GFAM (Stern Review HD Report)
  and Realign Financial Architecture

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• Financial and Policy Instruments

Aligning Rewards and Regulations
Private
sector Investments Insurance Ratings
Public sector
Incentives Infrastructure RD Procurement
practices
Carrots
Public Health
TAXES, SUBSIDIES, FUNDS
Security
Economy
INSTITUTIONAL FRAMEWORK
REGULATIONS EFFICIENCY STDS
Climate Stability
Sticks
THE ENGINE OF GROWTH for the 21st CENTURY
New Energy Plan
Transport Utilities Buildings
Corn Coal Nuclear Lobbies
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