Making Your Own Pace Figures and Profiting From Them

1
Making Your Own Pace Figures and Profiting From
Them

• Tom Brohamer and Cary Fotias
• Moderator Barry Meadow
• February 28, 2004

2
Pace Numbers
Two basic types of pace ratings
Quirin style Velocity based (Brohamer-Sartin)
Xtras based on ft/sec calculations and closer i
n spirit to Sartin numbers
3
Mitigate the effect of turns by assuming par
times for 35,000 claimers at Belmont Park
4
Challenges of Making Pace Numbers

• Accurate track-to track comparisons at pace and
  final calls
  
• Calculating good daily variants and distributing
  them properly during races
  

5
Challenges of Making Pace Numbers

• Interday changes in track conditions (split or
  sliding variants)
  
• Rails on the turf
• Wind
• Timer malfunctions
• Chart caller errors
• Runups
• Configuration of turns, etc

6
Challenges of Making Pace Numbers

• Human judgment needed to produce superior numbers

7
New Pace Tops

• Look for horses with lifetime best pace numbers
  on dirt
  
• Early exertion usually affects final time
• Improved early pace at stressful points may yield
  improved future race results

8
New Pace Tops
Pace Final Pace Final 80 66 82
63 76 68 70 64 77 69 72
55

9
New Pace Tops
Pace Final Pace Final 74 60 82
73 68 61 69 74 67 60 73
74
66 60 68 57
10
New Pace Tops
Common with young, developing horses
Cyclical pace top is key in spotting improvement
in older horses (raced into shape) and can help
determine when big efforts are likely
11
Delayed Pace Tops
Turf race is a classic example of darkening the
horses form while building its stamina
Pace Final 63 62 80 66 74
68
12
Distance Switches
Using pace numbers in conjunction with final
numbers results in clearer understanding of a
horses potential suitability for different
distances
13
Distance Switches
Horse A Horse B Pace Final Pace Final
78 70 70 70 79 67 70
67
77 69 74 69 sprinters
14
Distance Switches
Look for tightening spreads or reversals in
horses that stretch out from sprints to routes,
or have limited route experience
A reversal defines a horse that, for the first t
ime in its career, runs a better dirt final
number than pace number
15
Distance Switches
More even energy distribution is often necessary
to route effectively

16
Distance Switches
In races longer than six furlongs, final numbers
do not illuminate performance of fading horses at
the ¾-mile mark Access to six furlong turnback
numbers can provide generous overlays
17
(No Transcript)
18
Turf Racing
Dirt racing tends to favor early or tactical
speed Turf racing tends to favor late pace Imp
roved early speed signals improved condition on
dirt Improved late speed signals improved conditi
on on turf
19
Turf Racing
Horse A Horse B Pace Final Pace Final
72 69 61 69 71 68 68 68

72 68 72 68
20
Turf Racing
On final numbers both Horse A and Horse B appear
equal on grass Incorporate pace numbers and Hor
se B becomes the better candidate for improvement
next time he races (final numbers remain same,
while pace numbers decline).
21
Turf Racing
Look for turf pace lows when the distance of the
last two races are within 1/8 of a mile of each
other, and associated final numbers are
comparable.
22
Turf Racing
Although pedigree and trainer stats are useful i
n evaluating first timers on the grass, pace
numbers in conjunction with final numbers can be
just as valuable.
23
Turf Racing
Horse A Horse B Pace Final Pace Final
60 68 78 69 70 67 79 67


24
Turf Racing
Horse B has a better final figure on dirt, but H
orse A is preferred on grass due to his
demonstrated ability to unleash the bulk of his
energy late in the race.