Online Games

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Online Games

• Past Through Future

Greg Costikyan Chief Design Officer, Unplugged
Games costik_at_ungames.com http//www.costik.com
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Online Games

• Past Through Future

Evolution Business Models Technology
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Me

• 27 published games
• MadMaze (1st online game with 1m players
• Games industry analyst consultant
• Founder Chief Design Officer, Unplugged Games
• Write about games industry.

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Evolution

• It Didnt Begin with Doom

1969 Plato 1978 MUD 198490s Era of the
COLs 1985 Habitat (persistent world) 1988 Modem
Wars 1993 Doom ( DWANGO) 1995 Low Latency
Start-Ups 1996 The End of Connect-Time
The Boxopoly Discovers Online
Gamesville 1997 Ultima Online 1999 Aggregators
Mutate EverQuest
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Today

• Three MarketsAd-supported mass audienceRetail
  Purchase, Free Online PlayPersistent World w/
  Monthly Charge
• New Entrants to Mass Audience Games EA.com,
  Games.com Hasbro, PureSkill Walker
  Digital/Priceline, Sony
• New Genres for Persistent Worlds Anarchy Online,
  Sovereign
• Online Play now Standard for PC Retail Build
  Site vs. Work with Aggregator

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Near Term Future

• New Game StylesNeverwinter Nights
• Proprietary Mass-Audience GamesThe importance of
  EuchreLicenses Reiner Knizia
• Niche AudiencesSimutronics, Skotos.net,
  GameGate, Warcry
• Indy Games MovementSissyfight, Shockwave.com
• The Search for the Middle Ground
• Online Console Gaming Chimaera or Reality?

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Business Models

• Forrester Claims 1b US Market in 1999I Want
  What Theyre SmokingMaybe 400m Tops
• Three Viable Models NowAd Supported Mass
  Audience (Prize-Based, Classic)Buy at Retail,
  Play for Free (Quake III)But at Retail Monthly
  Fee (EverQuest)
• Viable (?) Near-Term ModelsFree Client Monthly
  FeePay for Components (Achaea)Shareware Revival

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Technology

• BroadbandDoes Nothing for LatencyUser
  Customization, Easy Component Update
  Distribution The Death of Retail Revival of the
  Doom Model
• Voice-over-IP Socialization Key Technology for
  Consoles?
• Streaming Media Completely Irrelevant
• Distributed Processing Harnesses Enormous
  ResourcesSecurity Charge Model Problems

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This is What Computer Games Were Meant to Be

• Games are social activities.
• The single-user of the PC has warped them in
  peculiar ways.
• As broadband spreads, online will swallow
  conventional PC gaming

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The Future is Late, but Not Cancelled

• 3 years ago, the analysts were wildly optimistic.
• We predict things on a linear curve, but growth
  is parabolic--falling below initially, but then
  shooting far above.
• Were now poised for takeoff.
• The futures so bright.

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Presentation may be downloaded from www.costik.co
m/pres/iirLondon/ Questions Queries to Greg
Costikyan costik_at_ungames.com