Brinksmanship

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Brinksmanship

• The Arms Race and the Cuban Missile Crisis

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Nuclear weapons

• First nuclear bomb dropped on Hiroshima and
  Nagasaki August 1945, killed more than 150,000
  people (more affected long-term)
• Soviet Union detonated first nuclear device 1949

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Nuclear weapons

• Explosive force of nuclear bombs measured in
  kilotons (thousands) or megatons (millions) of
  TNT
• Hiroshima 13 kilotons
• Largest bomb ever tested 59 megatons 4,500
  times that of Hiroshima bomb
• Most current nuclear weapons between 100 and 1
  megaton

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Types of nuclear weapons

• Three main categories
• Strategic (long-range)
• Intermediate (medium-range)
• Tactical (short-range)
• Strategic missiles
• Cruise missiles - rise into atmosphere and fall
  towards target almost vertically
• ICBMs (Intercontinental ballistic missiles) can
  hit targets 6,000 miles away in 30 minutes or
  less
• SLBMs (submarine-launched ballistic missiles)
  shorter range, less accuracy, but harder to
  attack than ICBMs

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Mutually Assured Destruction

• With nuclear weapons came questions about
  strategic, political and moral use of them
• MAD key to US thinking about the arms race
• Name coined 1960s, but idea traced back to
  earliest days of atomic era
• Not a nuclear strategy does not tell either
  country what weapons to build or how to use them,
  but acknowledges that launching a nuclear attack
  would bring a devastating response
• MAD criticised for threat to civilians many
  nuclear weapons in US and USSR were (are?)
  trained on cities
• Joint declaration Gorbachev and Reagan 1986 A
  nuclear war cannot be won and must never be
  fought.

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US development

• US atomic monopoly 1945-49 gave freedom rebuild
  Germany and Japan
• 1949 US sought maintain nuclear superiority
  through increased production atomic weapons and
  devt. hydrogen bomb
• 1950-53 US extended armed forces by 1 million
  troops, increased production aircraft, ships,
  combat vehicles
• Devoted to countering Soviet conventional
  superiority in Europe
• Balance of power in Europe , with nuclear
  superiority would extend deterrence

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Eisenhowers administration (1953-61)

• Decided pursue containment by cutting back
  conventional forces, while threatening to respond
  to aggression by launching a massive nuclear
  strike against the SU
• Also relied heavily on the CIA
• 1953 approx. 1,000 nuclear warheads, by 1960
  18,000
• September 1955 Eisenhower approved plans calling
  for ICBMs as highest national priority

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Overseas bases

• Crucial to US strategy
• No capability of a strike directly from US to SU
• Dependent on bases in territory of allies
  explains efforts of US to ring SU and PRC during
  1950s with bilateral and regional security pacts
• By mid-1960s US had 375 military bases in foreign
  countries and 3,000 other facilities encircling
  the SU and its allies

10
Soviet Union policies

• Korean War changed policies Red Army increased
  from 2.8 million (1950) to 5.8 million (1955)
• Death Stalin changed policy successors wanted
  reduce military spending and adopt less
  confrontational policies towards West to shift
  economic priorities
• Khrushchev stressed defensive orientation towards
  West, reconciliation with Yugoslavia, more active
  policy towards Third World

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Nuclear as focus

• Reduction troops 1955-60 to 3.6 million
• Continued development strategic nuclear forces
• Developed and deployed long-range bombers with
  theoretical capacity to reach the US on one-way
  missions
• However, focused on ballistic missiles 1958
  only 85 ballistic missile bombers vs. 1769 for US
  (221)
• 1957 launched Sputnik (earth-orbiting satellite)
  demonstrated ICBM capacity

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Increased tension

• Soviet ICBM transformed strategic environment
• US threatened, no known means defending against
  ICBM and warning time reduced from hours to
  minutes
• US analysts feared Soviet ability to strike US
  result in US reluctance to respond to attack in
  Western Europe need to convince NATO allies
  would take action if necessary
• After Sputnik US population feared SU winning
  the arms race

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The reality

• Eisenhower knew not as serious as appeared
• 1956 U-2 spy planes mapped and photographed the
  SU learned that SU ICBM programme experiencing
  difficulties
• Also knew US many medium-range missiles and
  bombers in Europe, and US ICBM capability close
  (1959)

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Result

• US need to increase military spending
• Late 1957 CIA claimed Soviets had ability build
  and deploy 500 ICBM by 1962
• Report said US strategic forces vulnerable to
  surprise attack called for 50 increase
  military spending, including 20 billion for
  fallout shelters
• missile gap became impt. in presidential
  campaign

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Kennedy 1961-63

• Increase military spending 15 1960-62
• Spending on space programme increase 400 million
  to 5 billion
• Lead to massive lead in US strategic weapons
• 1961 McNamara publicly declared no missile gap
• Increase conventional forces in Europe, build up
  of NATO forces this would allow US to deal with
  instability in the Third World (flexibility)

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Soviet response

• Looked like the US planning to fight a war
• Rocket that launched Sputnik unsuitable for
  military use
• Khrushchev policy of bluff claiming SU was
  producing missiles like sausages
• Hoping would deter US, Khrushchev announced plans
  in 1960 to cut troops by 1.2 million
• Argued that SU security no longer dependent on
  mass armies, but nuclear weapons
• Also ended moratorium on nuclear testing, and
  detonated 59-megaton hydrogen bomb

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Cuban Missile Crisis sources

• National Security Archive at the George
  Washington University
• http//www.gwu.edu/nsarchiv/nsa/cuba_mis_cri/docs
  .htm
• http//www.gwu.edu/nsarchiv/nsa/cuba_mis_cri/

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How did the Crisis affect the Cold War?

• Treaty Banning Nuclear Weapon Tests In The
  Atmosphere, In Outer Space and Under Water -
  abbreviated as the Partial Test Ban Treaty
  (PTBT), the Limited Test Ban Treaty (LTBT), or
  the Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (NTBT)
• Intended to slow arms race, and to reduce nuclear
  fallout (residual radiation) in the atmosphere
• Signed 5 August 1963, entered into force 10
  October 1963
• 113 nations signed

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Other effects?
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• Thirteen Days
• 7.30pm Thursday
• A1