Policy Advice and the Singapore Issues

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Policy Advice and the Singapore Issues

• Simon J. Evenett
• Oxford University and Brookings
• simon.evenett_at_sbs.ox.ac.uk

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Objectives of this presentation

• Brief description of the four Singapore Issues.
• Summary of views about them.
• Presentation of a neutral means of assessing the
  case for including such issues in trade
  agreements.
• Discuss implications for regional as well as
  multilateral trade negotiations.

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What are the Singapore Issues?

• Investment.
• Competition law.
• Transparency in government procurement.
• Trade facilitation.

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WTO discussions on the Singapore Issues

• Singapore Ministerial Declaration in 1996.
• Creation of Working Groups.
• Doha Ministerial Declaration in 2001.
• Modalities.
• Timing of decisions.
• Cancun Ministerial Declaration in 2003.
• December 15th 2003 deadline.

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Often-heard arguments pro and con

• Pro
• Complementarities with trade reform and other
  reforms.
• Preserving the existing bargain.
• Rules would be of distinct intrinsic value.

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Often-heard arguments pro and con

• Pro
• Complementarities with trade reform and other
  reforms.
• Preserving the existing bargain.
• Rules would be of distinct intrinsic value.

• Con
• Generic concerns about the WTO

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Often-heard arguments pro and con

• Pro
• Complementarities with trade reform and other
  reforms.
• Preserving the existing bargain.
• Rules would be of distinct intrinsic value.

• Con
• Generic concerns about the WTO
• Mission creep.
• Grievances about Uruguay Round.
• DSU.

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Often-heard arguments pro and con

• Pro
• Complementarities with trade reform and other
  reforms.
• Preserving the existing bargain.
• Rules would be of distinct intrinsic value.

• Con
• Generic concerns about the WTO.
• Case for collective action at the WTO.
• Market access only.

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Often-heard arguments pro and con

• Pro
• Complementarities with trade reform and other
  reforms.
• Preserving the existing bargain.
• Rules would be of distinct intrinsic value.

• Con
• Generic concerns about the WTO.
• Case for collective action at the WTO.
• Costs and benefits of implementation.
• Analogy to SPS and TRIPS agreements.

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Often-heard arguments pro and con

• Pro
• Complementarities with trade reform and other
  reforms.
• Preserving the existing bargain.
• Rules would be of distinct intrinsic value.

• Con
• Generic concerns about the WTO.
• Case for collective action at the WTO.
• Costs and benefits of implementation.
• Constraining policy space.

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Deeper questions raised by Singapore Issues

• What are the boundaries of the WTO?
• Should it be confined to market access issues?
• Membership and content of future agreements.
• To what extent have the benefits of prior reforms
  depended on presence or absence of complementary
  policies?
• What economic and political-economy factors
  motivate international collective action in these
  four areas?

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Guiding principles for good policy advice on the
Singapore Issues

• Understanding the policy proposals is critical
  few bother to read the relevant proposals and
  many mischaracterize what is on the negotiating
  table.
• Even though there is little empirical research on
  these issues, an over-reliance on first
  principles is unhealthy.
• Country heterogeneity mitigates against sweeping
  conclusions be suspicious of them.

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A step-by-step approach to analyses of the
Singapore Issues

• 1. What is the key development issue at stake?
  (This is not necessarily the key negotiating
  issue).
• 2. What rationale, if any, is there for different
  types of international collective action (ICA) in
  a given policy arena?
• Cross-border spillovers and externalities.
• Political economy of reciprocal reform.
• 3. From an economic perspective, which type of
  ICA is preferable?

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A step-by-step approach to analyses of the
Singapore Issues

• 4. What is the economic case for undertaking the
  preferred type of ICA in the WTO?
• 5. What proposals have actually been advanced in
  this policy area at the WTO?
• 6. How do those proposals stack against the
  arguments advanced in 2.-4. above?
• 7. Are there other initiatives in this policy
  area that might better advance development than
  those currently proposed at the WTO?

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Implications for Bank policy advice

• Despite the Cancun Ministerial, demand for advice
  on Singapore Issues is likely to be high given
  their inclusion in many preferential trade
  negotiations.
• An inadequate research base, plus variation in
  country circumstances, will limit the amount of
  papers that are directly relevant to the country
  that you are responsible for.
• Beware of generic policy conclusions.

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Implications for Bank policy advice

• However, all is not lost.
• Hopefully this presentation has demonstrated that
  there is a neutral step-by-step method for
  assessing proposals for the Singapore Issues.
• Even though weve talked a lot about trade
  negotiations, dont forget that countries can
  unilaterally reform.