A special presentation by

1
Womens Council of Realtors
A special presentation by Christine M. Todd, CA
E, RCE Chief Executive Officer Northern Virginia
Association of Realtors
March 6, 2009
2
Existing Home Sales
Source www.calculatedriskblog.org
3
National Home Price Growth Total Homes, Median
Sales Price
change from a year ago
Source NAR
4
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria
DC-VA-MD-WV/ Median Home Price Growth
change from a year ago
Source NAR
5
Annual Existing-Home SalesIncludes Single
Family, Condos, Coops
Excessive Boom
In thousand units
Home sales have retreated back to pre-boom years,
which was then considered to be at healthy levels.
Source NAR
6
Average Sales Price Percent ChangeWashington
Metro AreaAll Housing Types
Annual Change
Annual Change by Month
2007
2008
Source MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
7
Metro Comparisons Mortgage Foreclosure RatesQ3 -
2008
Foreclosures /10,000 Owner-Occupied Units
Source Source Realty Trac, GMU Center for
Regional Analysis
8
Annual Percent Change by Jurisdiction
Source Source MRIS, GMU Center for Regional
Analysis
9
Average Sales Price All Housing Types / Washingto
n Metro Area
Source Source MRIS, GMU Center for Regional
Analysis
10
Single-Family Housing Starts(Major fall but,
good trend to control inventory)
In Thousand Units
Source Census
11
VirginiaSingle Family Home Permits
Thousands
Source Census
12
Annual Existing-Home Salesat 1998 levels
In thousand Units
13
1998 vs. 2008
Existing Home Sales are stable, but trending at
levels from 10-years ago. From 1998 to 2008 25
million more people 13 million more jobs Co
mparable affordability conditions
Is it credit tightening? Is it excessive pess
imism?
14
Mortgage Obligation ManageableMedian as Percent
of Income
Source NAR
15
FHA Market Share for Home Purchase
Source HMDA, NAR Estimate
16
Foreclosure Rate by QuarterWashington Metro Area
Source RealtyTrac, GMU Center for Regional
Analysis
17
Mortgage Foreclosure Rates by County Jan 08
Jan 09
Montgomery Arlington Frederick D.C.Alexandria
Metro Area Prince Georges Fairfax Stafford L
oudoun
Prince William
2008
2009
0 100 200 300 400 500
600 700 800
Source Source RealtyTrac, GMU Center for
Regional Analysis
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One For Every 100 Households
100 Households 32 renters and 68 homeowners
22 have no mortgage 46 have mortgage
3 are delinquent 43 are
current 1 gets foreclosed 2 work it out
Historically only ½ gets foreclosed

19
Consumer Confidence
Present Situation
Expectations
Source Conference Board, GMU Center for Regional
Analysis
20
15 Largest Job Markets Job Change Nov. 07 Nov.
08
In thousands
Washington 31,100
Source GMU Center for Regional Analysis
21
Annual Change in Employed U.S.
In thousand Units
Source BLS Establishment Survey
22
Annual Job Change Washington Metro Area
Annual Change
Annual Month-over-the-Year
2007
2008
In Thousands
Source BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
nvar.com
Women's Council of Realtors
23
Average Sales Price Percent ChangeWashington
Metro Single Family Attached-TH
-21.6
Source MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
24
Average Sales Price Percent ChangeWashington
Metro Condo
-8.0
Source MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
25
The Northern Virginia Housing Market
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Percent of Sales at Price Source MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
27
Average Sales Price Percent ChangeNVAR Single
Family Detached

Annual Change Annual Change by Month in
2008
Source MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
28
NVAR Home Sales Jan. 09 vs. Jan. 08
2008 2009
UNDER CONTRACT 2008 1,262 2009 1,550 LISTING
S 2008 8,937 2009 7,545 SOLD 2008 716
2009 998 (Up 39.39)
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NVAR Active Listings Jan. 09 vs. Jan. 08
2008 2009
AVERAGE SOLD PRICE 486,060 376,669
(Down 22.51) MEDIAN SOLD PRICE 200
8 400,000 2009 320,000 (
Down 20)
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Prince William County Home Sales
Jan. 09 vs. Jan. 08
2008 2009
UNDER CONTRACT 2008 498 2009 987 LISTINGS
2008 1,431 2009 987 SOLD 2008 312 2009 647
(Up 52)
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Prince William County Active Listings
Jan. 09 vs. Jan. 08
2008 2009
AVERAGE SOLD PRICE 318,859 210,255
(Down 34) MEDIAN SOLD PRICE 2008 2
86,750 2009 175,900 (Down 3
9)
32
Loudoun County Home Sales Jan. 09 vs. Jan. 08
2008 2009
UNDER CONTRACT 2008 379 2009 463 LISTINGS
2008 943 2009 626 SOLD 2008 216 2009 284
(Up 24)
33
Loudoun County Active Listings
Jan. 09 vs. Jan. 08
2008 2009
AVERAGE SOLD PRICE 431,811 328,254
(Down 24) MEDIAN SOLD PRICE 2008 3
70,000 2009 287,950 (Down
22)
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Year End Home Sales 2008 vs. 2007
AVERAGE SOLD PRICE 2007 540,381 2008
460,392 (Down 14.8) MEDIAN SOLD PRICE
2007 460,000 2008 385,000
(Down 16.3)
UNITS SOLD 2007 19,363 2008 18,593 (Down 4)
DAYS ON MARKET 2007 83 2008 93 (Up
12.05)
35
Trends Under Contract
Source MRIS
36
U.S. Gross Domestic ProductQuarterly Change
2006 2011

Forecast
2006 2007 2008
2009 2010 2011
Source Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional
Analysis
37
Bottom Line
There is a price correction currently underway
Affordability is keeping many buyers on the side
lines The average price appreciation for Northern
Virginia is 6 Real Estate should be viewed as a
long term investment
38
Key Indicators to Watch
SUPPLY/INVENTORY listings are declining and
building permits low. Question? Is there a shado
w inventory waiting in the wings?
PRICES Continued stabilization in inner areas o
f the region, easing of declines in outer areas
and continued increases in sales in those areas
FORECLOSURES An easing of foreclosure rates, pr
ice declines to stop and level off, head up in
some areas Question Is there another round of f
oreclosures for 2009?
Source GMU Center for Regional Analysis
39
Homeowners in Denial?
62 of homeowners no price decline
Most U.S. Markets are experiencing price decline
Price info gleamed from transacted homes and not
all homes More transactions from REO-foreclosed a
nd short-sales 90 of homes are not on the market
Only 9 of homeowners have subprime loans Homeo
wners have a long-term view
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Advice to Sellers
Heed the advice of their Realtor on pricing

Be flexible on buyer concessions
41
Washington, D.C. Shows Annual
Sales Gain Nov. 08
The month-to-month weakening in pending home
sales is understandable, but because the index
remains above year-ago levels it means we're
still in a broad period of stabilization,"
Lawrence Yun pointed out. "Conditions remain
mixed around the country, but markets that are
showing annual sales gains include Long Island,
N.Y. Boston Minneapolis Denver and Washington,
D.C.
Source Real Estate Channel realestatechannel.com
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American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009
H.R. 1, the American Recovery and Reinvestment
Act of 2009, passed the House on February 13,
2009, by a vote of 246 -184. Later that day, the
Senate also passed the bill by a vote of 60-38.
The President signed the bill on February 17,
2009. The bill is a 780 billion package, with
roughly 35 of the package devoted to tax cuts
(mostly for 2009) and the rest to spending
intended to occur in 2009 and 2010. 
Source NAR
43
Realtors Advocate Quick Implementation of
Stimulus Package
"We are pleased that Congress and the
administration have taken prompt action to
address the current economic crisis," said NAR
President Charles McMillan, An economic recove
ry is not possible without a housing recovery,
and the legislation contains two important
housing provisions championed by NAR. The final
stimulus bill increases the first-time home buyer
tax credit to 8,000 and eliminates the repayment
requirement of earlier legislation. In addition,
the credit availability has been extended until
December 1.
Source NAR
44
Get the Facts!
Realtor.org
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NAR to the Rescue!

• NAR has a full court press to
• Save MID
• Increase services to members, not cut them
• Open REALTORS Federal Credit Union, 2009
• Big news on the way for health insurance

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NAR News!

• Fannie Instructs Its Servicers Not to Cut
  Commissions on Short SalesOn February 24, 2009,
  Fannie Mae sent Announcement 09-03 to its
  servicers instructing them not to negotiate
  commissions on short sales below the amount
  negotiated by the listing agent (unless the
  commission exceeds 6 percent).  The requirement
  took effect March 1, 2009.

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Get the Facts!
mris.com
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Get the Facts!
nvar.com
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Upcoming Events
SPRING FORECAST Thursday, March 19, 2009 930 a.
m. 1230 p.m. Herndon Service Center Present
ers Dr. Stephen Fuller Center for Regional Ana
lysis/GMU TJ Doyle NAR Rese
arch Division
GREEN DESIGNATION COURSE April 2 3, 2009 9 a.m
. 5 p.m.
Herndon Service Center
Register online at nvar.com or call 703.207.3206