Environmental Problems, Their Causes, and the Issue of Sustainability

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Environmental Problems, Their Causes, and the
Issue of Sustainability

• APES Lecture
• August 2006

We are the guests, not the masters, of nature
and must develop a new paradigm for development
and conflict resolution based on the costs and
benefits to all peoples and bound by the limits
of nature herself rather than by the limits of
technology and consumerism---M. Gorbachev
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KEY QUESTIONS OF UNIT I

• See Essential Questions for Unit I
• See Miller page 6 next to Section 1-1

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Major Environmental Problems

• Biodiversity Depletion
• Habitat destruction
• Habitat degradation
• Extinction

• Air Pollution
• Global climate change
• Stratospheric ozone depletion
• Urban air pollution
• Acid deposition
• Outdoor/Indoor pollutants

• Food Supply Problems
• Overgrazing
• Farmland loss
• and degradation
• Wetlands loss
• and degradation
• Overfishing
• Coastal pollution
• Soil erosion
• Soil salinization
• Soil waterlogging
• Water shortages
• Groundwater depletion
• Loss of biodiversity
• Poor nutrition

Major Environmental Problems

• Water Pollution
• Sediment
• Nutrient overload
• Toxic chemicals
• Infectious agents
• Oxygen depletion
• Pesticides
• Oil spills

• Waste Production
• Solid waste
• Hazardous waste

These are all directly/indirectly are related to
HUMAN HEALTH!
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Example of Critical Habitat Loss

• 108,000 acres of rainforest are lost each day
  (that is 39 million acres per year)
• The rainforest is critical habitat because
• 80 of all surface vegetation is in the RF
• 50 of the worlds oxygen supply is from here
• 50 of all pharmaceuticals originated from plants
• Only 1 of rainforest plants have been screened
  for medicinal use
• The vast majority of biodiversity occurs in these
  forestsa single tree could contains literally
  thousands of species of insects, birds, mammals
  etc

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Areas Disturbed by Humans
48 of land partially or totally disturbed If we
subtract out uninhabitable area73
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Causes of Environmental Problems
Population growth
Unsustainable resource use
Poverty
Not including the environmental costs of economic
goods and services in their market prices
Trying to manage and simplify nature with
too little knowledge about how it works
Fig. 1-10, p. 14
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Population Growth Drives Environmental Problems

• Or so say the environmentalists!
• In order to understand human population dynamics,
  we need to better understand the difference
  between linear and exponential growth
• We will return to the issues surrounding human
  population growth later this year in Chapter 7

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Exponential vs. Linear Growth

• A quantity increases by a fixed percentage of the
  whole in a given time
• Starts off slowly but after a few doublings it
  grows to enormous numbers
• Rule of 70 70/growth ratedoubling time
• N(t)N0ert
• What is increasing exp?
• Pop growth, resource and energy use, CO2 levels,
  premature extinction of plants/animals,
  pollution, poverty, area of deserts, trash,
  clearing of rain forests.etc etc

• A quantity increases by a constant (slope) amount
  independent of the whole
• Constant growth
• Ymx b

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Exponential vs. Linear Growth
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Examples of Exp. Growth

• Suppose you agree to eat 1 p-nut on the first day
  of the month, 2 on the second, 4 on the third,
  etc etc until day 30?
• 10th1, 15th32, 21st1 ton, 30th500 tons
• Fold a piece of paper in half to double its
  thicknessif you could continue doubling the
  thickness 42 times, the stack would reach from
  the Earth to the Moon (386K kilometers)if you
  could double it 50 times, the stack would reach
  to the sun (149 million km away)
• Exp Growth can make the cupboard bare very fast
  if the entire earth were filled with high grade
  crude oil, if we used it at an annual rate of 7
  (starting at oil consumption in 1989) it would be
  gone in 342 years
• Suppose you own a pond on which a water lily is
  growing. The lily doubles in size each day. If
  it was allowed to grow unchecked, it would cover
  the pond in 30 days. On what day will the lily
  cover half the pond? (29th)

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Human Population Milestones
For much of recorded time human populations
remained relatively stable as various checks and
balances kept growth flat. What caused the
rapid increase in population since the Industrial
Revolution???
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Watch ZPG Human Pop Growth Video
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Key Population Trends to 2050

• The population will be bigger
• 2.6 B projected to be added in next 45yrs exceeds
  total population of world in 1950
• Fastest growing regions are Africa, Asia, and
  Latin/Central America
• In 1950, developing countries were twice
  population of developed by 2050 they will be 6X
  the population!
• The population will be slower growing
• World growth rate 1.2-1.3 down from peak of
  2.1
• The population will be more urban
• Urban pop will swell from 3B to 6B by 2050
• The population will be older
• 20th century last time young outnumbered old

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Demographic Projections The good and the bad.

• Good news/Bad news
• Rate of natural increase of world dropped 40
  since 1963 (from 2.2 to 1.2)
• But during this time population still doubled
  from 3.2B to 6.4B
• Between 2005 and 2050 the population will triple
  in
• Afghanistan, Burundi, Chad, Congo, East Timor,
  Liberia, Mail, Niger, and Uganda (among poorest
  nations on earth)
• Virtually all population growth in next 45yrs is
  expected to happen in developing countries
• Half the global increase will take place in
  (order)
• India, Pakistan, Nigeria, Dem. Rep. Of Congo,
  Bangladesh, Uganda, the USA, Ethiopia, and China
• Virtually all pop. growth will be in URBAN areas
• Poor countries will have to build a city of 1M
  people/wk for next 45 years!!!
• Many developed countries will shrink!
• This too will cause challengeslike what?

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Population Estimates by 2050(based upon
assumptions)
Constant 1.2
MEDIf downward Trend in FR Continues
LOWIf .5 less children per woman
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Where is the population growth?
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The Demographic Divide in a Nutshell
Developed
Developing

• 1.6 children/woman
• 2050, 1 in 3 over 60
• 51 countries will lose pop. b/w now and 2050
• Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia

• 2.9 children/woman
• 2050, 1 in 5 over 60
• Growth rate is greatest in the poorest countries
  in the world
• Virtually all pop growth will take place in
  developing countries
• Urban population will double from 3B to 6B
• Wastes around coastal cities could pose big
  challenge
• Infrastructure?

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The Population DebateThe Elephant in the Room

• Can the world provide an adequate standard of
  living for 3 billion more people without causing
  widespread environmental damage?
• What if everyone in China and India lived like an
  American, could nature handle it?
• Is the earth already overpopulated?
• What measures should be taken to slow growth?
• Instead of asking what is the carrying capacity,
  some believe we should be asking what the optimum
  sustainable population of the earth might be
• Should people be allowed to have as many children
  as they want?
• If we all agree to lower the growth rate even
  more, how might this be accomplished (without
  coercion or moral depravity?)
• What is your opinion on these issues?

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Annual Population Growth Rate
Worldwide Currently 1.1 to 1.2 per year
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Which Country Is More Over-Populated?

• The United States of America
• China
• Watch Clip from Population Bomb
• Compare a family in Nepal to a family in
  California

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Who is overpopulated?

• Developed Countries
• Japan, US, GB, Canada
• GNPabove 10k/yr
• Higher standard of living per capita
• Extensive industry and use of technology
• Rely mostly upon nonrenewable energies
• 1.2 Billion (20)
• 85 of wealth
• Greater disposable income more spent on luxury
  items
• Use 88 of resources
• Ave US citizen consumes 35X as much as a citizen
  in India
• Water usage 1400gal/pp/day
• Generate 75 of pollution and waste
• Low fertility rate

• Developing Countries
• Africa, Asia, etc
• GNPgt1K/yr
• Lower standard of living per capita
• Limited technology less industry
• Use more renewable resources /energies
• 4.9 Billion (80)
• 15 of wealth
• spent primarily on necessities
• Use 12 of resources
• Water usage 12gal/pp/day
• 1 million people added every 5 days 9k/hr
• Huge percentage of the population under 15
• Means built in momentum to increase population
• High fertility rates (why?)

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Some statistics about the divide

• The ave US citizen uses 159 gallons of water per
  day 3 Billion live on 25 gallons/day
• With only 5 of the worlds population, Americans
  consume 24 of the worlds energy, 20 of all
  metals, 30 of all paper, and generate 75 of all
  toxic waste
• On average, an American consumes as much energy
  as 2 Japanese, 6 Mexicans, 13 Chinese, 31
  Indians, 128 Bangladeshis, or 370 Ethiopians

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Distribution of Wealth
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Global Outlook
Percentage of World's
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Population
81
0.1
Population growth
1.5
Wealth and income
85
15
88
Resource use
12
75
Pollution and waste
25
Developed countries
Developing countries
Fig. 1-4, p. 9
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The nebulous concept of Sustainability

• A sustainable society meets the needs of the
  present without compromising the ability of
  future generations to meet their own
  needsBrundtland Commission of UN (1987)
• Implies that humankind must live off the
  income generated by the stocks of remaining
  natural capital
• In other words, natures capital should be used
  no more rapidly than it can be replenished
• Living off the interest of natural capital
• Rates of harvest should not exceed rates of
  renewal
• This is one of the most important CONCEPTS that
  we will pursue throughout the year. The ultimate
  question for our planet is how do we become
  sustainable?

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Sustainability Reprised

• See handout and readings on Sustainability
• Know Brundtland 1987 Definition
• Understand how this applies to
• Economic capital
• Natural capital (see the Earth as a bucket
  analogy)
• Renewable Resources
• Non-Renewable Resources
• Waste/pollution
• What would a sustainable society look like?
• What would a sustainable economy look like?
• Do we have a moral obligation to do this for our
  children?

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How do we measure progress towards sustainability?

• Ecological Footprint
• IPAT

Living on interest vs. depleting your capital
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Ecological Footprint

• World Average 5.8 Acres (2.3 hectares)
• 2.5 acres (1 hectare) in developing countries
• 3.8 acres (1.5 hectares) in China
• 6.2 acres (2.5 hectares) in Mexico
• 2.0 acres (0.8 hectares) in Ethiopia
• 5.0 acres (2.0 hectares) in Peru/Philippians
• 24 acres (9.6 hectares) in United States
• 22 acres (8.8 hec) in Canada/New Zealand
• 12 acres (4.8 hectares) in Japan
• 13.2 acres (5.3 hectares) in England
• What are some of the things that go into this
  footprint?
• Average amount of productive land and shallow sea
  needed by each person (or COUNTRY!) for water,
  housing, energy, food, transportation, commerce,
  and waste absorption
• Inverse of carrying capacity

10X
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Ecological Footprint
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IPAT
Developing Countries
X
X

Consumption per person (affluence, A)
Technological impact per unit of consumption (T)
Environmental impact of population (I)
X
X

Population (P)
X
X

Developed Countries
Fig. 1-13, p. 16
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Overshooting Carrying Capacity

• ECOLOGICAL FOOTPRINT
• World Average 2.3 hectares per global citizen
• Ecological Reality 2.0 TOTAL with only 1.7
  hectares per capita are available for human use.
• Our planet currently overshoots capacity by 20
• And this is a conservative number that assumes
  biodiversity can be preserved on only 0.3
  hec/capita
• For every person in the world to reach present US
  levels of consumption would require 4 more planet
  earths

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Povertywhat is the connection to Environmental
Problems?

• Short term survival needs deplete resources
• Most of these resources are renewable like trees,
  water,
• Poor forced to live in marginal/polluted areas or
  take jobs with unhealthy working conditions
• Have children as a form of economic security
• Richest 20 have 85 wealth the poorest 20 have
  1.3 of wealth
• Net wealth of 3 richest people GDP of poorest
  47 countries
• It would take 40B/yr to eliminate poverty (this
  represents less than 0.1 of worlds income)

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Some Harmful Results of Poverty
Lack of access to
Number of people ( of world's population)
Adequate sanitation
2.4 billion (37)
Enough fuel for heating and cooking
2 billion (31)
Electricity
1.6 billion (25)
Clean drinkingwater
1.1 billion (17)
1 in 6 people
Adequate health care
1.1 billion (17)
Enough food for good health
1.1 billion (17)
Fig. 1-11, p. 14
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(No Transcript)
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Does The Tide of Economic Growth Raise All
Boats?
Since 1960, the richest 20 have increased their
share of global income from 70 to 86, the
poorest 20 saw their share decline from 2.3 to
1.1
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Economic Development
Trade-Offs
Economic Development
Good News
Bad News
Global life expectancy doubled since
1950 Infant mortality cut in half since
1955 Food production ahead of population growth
since 1978 Air and water pollution down in most
developed countries since 1970 Number of people
living in poverty dropped 6 since 1990
Life expectancy 13 years less in developing
countries than in developed Countries Infant
mortality rate in developing countries over
9 times higher than in developed countries Harmfu
l environmental effects of agriculture may limit
future food production Air and water pollution
levels in most developing countries too
high Half of world's workers trying to live on
less than 2 (U.S.) per day
Fig. 1-6, p. 10
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How is the Status of Women Related to Env. Issues?

• Studies show that women tend to have fewer and
  healthier children and live longer when they
• Are educated, have access to jobs, live in
  societies where they are not oppressed
• Women make up 50 of population but
• Make up 70 of worlds poor 66 can not
  read/write
• Do almost all domestic and child rearing
• 60-80 of work growing food, getting H2O
• 66 of all hours worked 10 of worlds income
• Own less than 2 of worlds land
• Many do not have right to own land, inherit
  estates, or borrow moneyMany are completely at
  the mercy of their husbands.a version of modern
  day slavery

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Show clips from Population Bomb on the Status of
Women
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Resources

• Types Economic, Human, Environmental (aka
  Natural Capital)
• Perpetual (sunlightbillions of years!)
• NOT counted as natural capital
• Natural Resources/Natural Capital can be
• Renewable (hours to decades to replenish)
• Forests, grasslands, plants/animals, fresh air,
  soil
• Non-renewable (exist in fixed quantity)
• Coal, natural gas, fossil fuels, metals,
  minerals, salt
• IB students must also know that replenishable
  refers to NON-LIVING things (air, water, ozone
  layer)
• Common Property (Tragedy of the Commons)
• Sustainable Yield
• Highest rate at which a renewable resources can
  be used INDEFINATELY without reducing its
  available supply

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Types of Resources
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Renewable Resources

• Normally replenished by natural processes
• Depends on solar engine to be renewed
• Self producing and self maintaining
• Stock not necessarily depleted with use
• Essentially inexhaustible on human time scale
• Tidal, biomass, solar, wind, geothermal energy
• Trees, organisms, soil, topsoil, H2O, O3, O2
• IB folks
• An abiotic (non-living) renewable resource is
  called a Replenishable resource (water, ozone,
  etc)
• Idea of Sustainable Yield applies only to
  renewables.what would be an example?

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Non Renewable Resources

• Not replenished by natural processes within a
  useful timescale
• Exist in fixed quantity within earths crust
• Depleted with use
• Energy (oil, gas, coal, etc)
• Metallic minerals
• Fe, Cu, Al, Zn, Ag etc
• Can be recycled
• Non-metallic
• Salt, clay, sand (too costly to recycle)
• Becomes Econ. Depleted

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Common Property Resources and the Tragedy of the
Commons

• Any resource which is shared by a group of people
  but owned by no one person
• The atmosphere, the ocean, fisheries, water on
  public property, national forests, etc etc
• ToC is a metaphor used to illustrate the conflict
  between individual interests and the common
  good(stop big)start here

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The Logic of The Tragedy of the Commons

• The cause of any tragedy of the commons is that
  when individuals use a public good, they do not
  bear the entire cost of their actions.
• If each person seeks to maximize their individual
  share of the resource, s/he ignores the negative
  costs borne by others. This is an example of an
  externality.
• The best (non-cooperative) short-term strategy
  for an individual is to try to exploit more than
  his share of public resources.
• Assuming a majority of individuals follow this
  strategy, the theory goes, the public resource
  gets overexploited.
• Overfishing and the decline of ocean resources is
  a classic example.

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Pollution

• What is it?
• Natural vs. Anthropogenic
• Two Types
• Point Source
• Single identifiable source
• Smokestack, drainpipe, one specific exhaust pipe
• Non-point Source
• Come from dispersed sources (cars!)
• Runoff
• Pesticides
• Two ways to control
• INPUT (prevention)
• The 4 Rs Refuse reduce reuse recycle
• OUTPUT (clean-up)

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Cultural Changes Over Time

• Hunter gatherers until 12,000 years ago
• Moved as needed to find food for survival
• Necessitated a detailed intimate knowledge of
  patterns of productivity in the ecosystem
• No way of accumulating a surplus of food or fuel
  nrg
• Used the sun renewable energy sources (ie
  dung/biomass)
• Small populations
• Short life span variable but generally low birth
  rate
• Exploited environment but impact limited
• Low resource use, migrationrepair/recovery of
  the natural systems, lack of technology

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Cultural Changes Over Time (cont)

• Agricultural Revolution (Settlement)
• Permanent agricultural communities
• Shift to agricultural economy
• Domestication of animals and culture of plants
• Secured access to food resources from commons
• Increase in human population
• Increased female fertility surer food supply
  fewer hazards increased life expectancy
  offspring were desirable as labor
• Intensification of human impact on environment
• Clearing via fire of forest for fields?soil
  erosion irrigation overgrazing by livestock
  exhaustion of soil fertility
• Energy use was human labor power or wood that was
  used for energy and construction
  material?deforestation

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Cultural Changes Over Time (cont)

• Industrial Revolution
• Began in England in 18th century
• Completely reshaped relationship between humans
  and nature
• Industrialization dramatically increased
  humanitys use of energy and natural resources to
  support human life and led to a dependence on
  non-renewable fossil fuels (first coal now also
  gas)
• Demand remained high for wood as building
  materialdeforestation
• Went from renewable wood to machines running on
  non-renewable resources
• Led to a second revolution in agriculture (labor
  intensive to mechanized)?increased population
  (could be used in industry in cities as opposed
  to in farming communities)
• Advances in medicine increased food supply
  better sanitation?resulted in decreased death
  rates and life span increased
• IR produced more humans (consumers) and
  industrial products
• Resulted in massive migrations to cities and
  infrastructure issues
• Lead to scarring of landscape massive pollution
  of air and water threat of exhaustion of natural
  resources and a greater perception of distance
  between humans and nature

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Globalization An Integrated World
Traditional decision making
Decision making in a sustainable society
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Sustainability Revolution
Current Emphasis
Sustainability Emphasis
Pollution cleanup Waste disposal(bury or
burn) Protecting species Environmentaldegrada
tion Increased resourceuse Population
growth Depleting anddegrading naturalcapital)
Pollution prevention(cleaner production) Waste
prevention reduction Protecting wherespecies
live (habitat protection) Environmentalrestorati
on Less wasteful (more efficient)resource
use Population stabilization bydecreasing birth
rates Protecting natural capitaland living off
the biological interest it provides
Fig. 1-14, p. 18