POTs to PANs

1
Titan against Titan What Technology will Win?
From Heavily Centralized Control Paradigms
To An Increasing Decentralized World via
Internet and Web Technology
John Waclawsky Ph. D. Services Architecture and
Governance Motorola, Inc.
2
Agenda

• Commonality vs. Competition
• Some Innovation Chemistry
• Chemistry Migration Lessons
• Innovation Eco-systems Model and Area of Common
  Benefit
• Goals and Results
• Technology Comparisons
• Some Challenges Always Something New!
• Lessons Learned

3
Competition and Commonality Standards vs. De
facto
ISO
IETF
ETSI
3GPP
W3C

• A Key Standards Perspective
• Common mechanisms are good for applications too?
  
• Some applications can leverage standards billing
  etc.
• Belief Common control into the application space
  will facilitate interoperability, easier
  application creation, more application utility
  and numerous new applications will emerge by
  extending commonality. This is a common
  perspective of IMS/SIP advocates
• BUT has IMS/SIP led to any new applications?

differentiation IS the game.... Geoffrey Moore
4
Competition and Commonality (continued)
Standards vs. De facto

• de facto Un-commonality is standard for
  applications
• Standards typically commoditize products
• tend to make products and services look more or
  less alike
• Standards may be giving competitors some control
  or even veto power
• Applications don't want to talk to each other
  for business reasons

• Innovators always look beyond standards for ways
  to lead

Smell Test Will competition stop? a single
solution /application / signaling / control /
format / data protocol, or any other common way
to serve customers in a non-competitive manner
Applications drive technology usage, not the
selection of some common protocol or standard.
5
Where is Innovation Thriving?and what is
driving it, as if we didnt know!
Consider the extended OSI model as
semi-permeable membrane for innovation
molecules!
a part of the Four Area Innovation Model
6
The OSI Model
L7 - Applications
L6 - Presentation
L5 - Session
L4 - Transport
L3 - Network
L2 - Data Link
L1 - Physical
7
Restricted Competition
Open Competition
8
RESULTS Innovation Movement Mostly FROM the
Internet
Restricted Competition Environment Telco/Cableco
Open Internet Environment
L10 - Religion
Layering
OSI
L9 - Politics
ISDN
L8 - Finance
L7 - Applications
L6 - Presentation
L5 - Session
?
SIP-3GPP
L4 - Transport
GSM/GPRS
L3 - Network
X.25
L2 - Data Link
ATM, DSL
DWDM, EDFA
L1 - Physical
9
Innovation Migration Lessons
Internet is willing to eat its own children as
well as the children of others. It isnt apparent
that any telco/cablecos innovations are eating
any Internet children.
10
Networking Protocol Layers
Restricted Competition
Open Competition
1- System-Based
Internet Technology is becoming increasingly
important to the restrictive competition
environment by providing access to and
interacting with the incredible number of web
destinations
L10
Religion
L9
Politics
L8
Finance
L7
L6
L5
L4
L3
L2
L1
11
Early / Obvious Model Conclusions

• Everyone needs the bottom four layers of the OSI
  modelThe split is over how to exploit the top of
  the extended OSI model
• Incentive to follow successful lower layer
  standards and, as a result, allow
  network-connected products and services to enjoy
  access to the widest audience
• Create new standards to extend connectivity when
  new technologies emerge or provide ways to better
  leverage the internet, such as WiMAX

connectivity is its own reward was often echoed
by the early Internet participants, and is
embodied in Metcalfes law
12
Networking Protocol Layers
Restricted Competition
Open Competition
Religion
L10
Politics
L9

• GOALS
• Standardize communication, NOT application
  behavior or control of end users.
• Everyone to benefits from connectivity.
• RESULTS
• Experimentation for new applications, services
  and technology exploded
• Innovation breeding ground spawning numerous
  high-market capitalization companies Amazon,
  Google, eBay
• Enormous wealth engine - February 6th 2006 SIP
  Forum1 presentation that concluded The
  Internet is responsible for the largest creation
  of shareholder value in the shortest time in
  history. 1 http//www.sipforum.com/

• GOALS
• Standardizing communications including
• Interoperability between applications in their
  respective vertical markets,
• End-user control
• Total control of application behavior.
• RESULTS
• Meeting goals rooted in existing thinking about
  networking
• A highly-controlled, but much-reduced
  experimentation environment
• Depressed innovation activity
• From our innovation migration lessons, it is
  becoming more apparent the trend is that the
  Internet is taking over

Finance
L8
L7
L6
L5
L4
L3
L2
L1
13
Networking Protocol Layers
Restricted Competition
Open Competition
L10
Religion
L9
Politics
L8
Finance
L7
Moving this way?
L6
L5
L4
Area of Common Benefit The standardized lower
levels have also helped solve the bootstrap
problem for innovators. These layers facilitate
the spread of new, unconventional products and
services at the higher layers of the protocol
stack. Via existing standardized lower networking
layers, anyone can now download and install the
software needed to use such new innovations
driving concepts such as social networking.
That's a key reason new innovations can reach
critical mass so quickly.
L3
L2
L1
14
Networking Protocol Layers
Restricted Competition
Open Competition
Religion
System-Based Innovation
Component-Based Innovation
L10
Politics

• System technologies about control
• IMS
• Quality of Service (QoS)
• Deep Packet Inspection (DPI)
• RST Injection for TCP protocol
• Session Initiation Protocol (SIP)
• Digital Rights Management (DRM)
• Control technologies are mainly desired by
  companies in the restrictive competition
  eco-system but have little value for the end-user
  customers.

• Consider an evolution about relationships
• Mash-ups
• P2P
• Encryption
• People technology
• Creating Blogs, user generated content,
  podcasts
• Connecting Social networks, virtual worlds
• Collaborating Wikis and Open Source
• Reacting to others Forums, Ratings, Reviews
• Organizing content Tags
• Staying aware RSS, widgets and Twitter
• Cloud computing (XMPP)
• Traffic Scattering
• Network coding
• Many of these technologies have demonstrated
  considerable end-user value (for example, Bit
  Torrent, Skype, etc.) but many provide little or
  no value to the restrictive competition
  eco-system.

L9
Mash-ups P2P
Finance
L8
L7
L6
L5
L4
L3

• Other related issues
• Infrastructure costs!
• Privacy concerns!
• Missing services/functions?

L2
L1
15
Networking Protocol Layers
Restricted Competition
Open Competition
Religion
L10
Application vs. No Application Is thinking about
applications passé?
Politics
L9
Finance
L8
Centralized delivered and controlled by a server
Distributed Built on demand, distributed and
controlled by the end user devices
L7
L6
L5
e.g. IMS and SIP technologies are designed
around an application infrastructure supporting
paradigm
Mash-ups and P2P technologies
L4
L3
Is current core network controlled thinking about
applications becoming obsolete?
L2
L1
16
P2P (edge to edge) Anyone can offer a service to
anyone else!

• Mainly Involves
• Sharing of resources by direct exchange (NO man
  in the middle!),
• Ability to self organize (NO control from the
  middle!),
• Deal with intermittent connectivity (NO state
  maintained or master data base in the middle!),

of the peers, for the peers, by the peers
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Networking Protocol Layers
Restricted Competition
Open Competition
Religion
L10
Control of What? and How?
Politics
L9
Centralized IMS and SIP
Distributed P2P and IM
Finance
L8
L7
L6
L5
L4
L3
We are moving from an early technology world
where we had to talk to machines in their
language to an emerging world where machines will
talk to us in our language
L2
L1
18
Networking Protocol Layers
Restricted Competition
Open Competition
Religion
L10
Another Example Circuit Voice vs. VoIP What
about Lawful Interception (LI)?
Politics
L9
Finance

• Centralized Circuit Switched network is easy
• Data network Session Border Controller (SBC)
  as the point of convergence for VoIP packets.
• Implementing LI on SBC is the VoIP equivalent of
  wire tapping on a circuit switched network.
• SBC is typically a VoIP session aware device
  that governs the manner in which VoIP calls are
  initiated, conducted and terminated in a network.

• Distributed VoIP
• IP provides numerous methods to ensure data
  security.
• no standardized manner to distinguish voice
  packets
• no telling which path the IP packet will take
• what headers get added.

L8
L7
L6
L5
L4
L3
L2
Decentralization is effecting LI too!
L1
19
Networking Protocol Layers
Restricted Competition
Open Competition
Religion
System-Based Innovation
Component-Based Innovation
L10
Politics

• System technologies about control
• IMS
• Quality of Service (QoS)
• Deep Packet Inspection (DPI)
• RST Injection for TCP protocol
• Session Initiation Protocol (SIP)
• Digital Rights Management (DRM)
• Control technologies are mainly desired by
  companies in the restrictive competition
  eco-system but have little value for the end-user
  customers.

• Consider an evolution about relationships
• Mash-ups
• P2P
• Encryption
• People technology
• Creating Blogs, user generated content,
  podcasts
• Connecting Social networks, virtual worlds
• Collaborating Wikis and Open Source
• Reacting to others Forums, Ratings, Reviews
• Organizing content Tags
• Staying aware RSS, widgets and Twitter
• Cloud computing (XMPP)
• Traffic Scattering
• Network coding
• Many of these technologies have demonstrated
  considerable end-user value (for example, Bit
  Torrent, Skype, etc.) but many provide little or
  no value to the restrictive competition
  eco-system.

L9
Finance
L8
L7
L6
L5
Traffic Scattering
L4
L3

• Other related issues
• Infrastructure costs
• Missing services/functions
• Privacy concerns

L2
L1
20
Traffic scattering
The world is increasingly connected
Bluetooth(R)
Cable TV
802.11a
Internet
What could STBs see?
What could end-users see?
802.11b/g
Digital Rabbit ears
GSM/GPRS
Satellite TV
CDMA
TV/Radio
IR
RFID
GSM/GPRS
GPS
CDMA
UWB
UWB
WiMAX
WiMAX
UMTS
UMTS
802.20
802.20
TV / Radio
NFC
NFC
Etc.
Etc.
21
Networking Protocol Layers
Restricted Competition
Open Competition
Religion
System-Based Innovation
Component-Based Innovation
L10
Politics

• System technologies about control
• IMS
• Quality of Service (QoS)
• Deep Packet Inspection (DPI)
• RST Injection for TCP protocol
• Session Initiation Protocol (SIP)
• Digital Rights Management (DRM)
• Control technologies are mainly desired by
  companies in the restrictive competition
  eco-system but have little value for the end-user
  customers.

• Consider an evolution about relationships
• Mash-ups
• P2P
• Encryption
• People technology
• Creating Blogs, user generated content,
  podcasts
• Connecting Social networks, virtual worlds
• Collaborating Wikis and Open Source
• Reacting to others Forums, Ratings, Reviews
• Organizing content Tags
• Staying aware RSS, widgets and Twitter
• Cloud computing (XMPP)
• Traffic Scattering
• Network coding
• Many of these technologies have demonstrated
  considerable end-user value (for example, Bit
  Torrent, Skype, etc.) but many provide little or
  no value to the restrictive competition
  eco-system.

L9
Finance
L8
L7
L6
L5
Network Coding
L4
L3

• Other related issues
• Infrastructure costs
• Missing services/functions
• Privacy concerns

L2
L1
22
Network Coding

• Network coding is a field of information theory
  and coding theory and is a method of attaining
  maximum information flow in a network
• The core notion of network coding is to allow
  and encourage mixing of data at intermediate
  network nodes.
• In contrast to traditional ways to operate a
  network that try to avoid collisions of data
  streams as much as possible
• A receiver sees these data packets and deduces
  from them the messages that were originally
  intended for the data sink.
• This is an elegant principle that implies a
  plethora of surprising results

http//searchnetworking.techtarget.com/sDefinition
/0,,sid7_gci1267914,00.html http//www.sciam.com/a
rticle.cfm?idbreaking-network-logjamsSIDmail
Is current core network controlled thinking about
packets becoming obsolete?
23
Networking Protocol Layers
Restricted Competition
Open Competition
Religion
System-Based Innovation
Component-Based Innovation
L10
Politics

• System technologies about control
• IMS
• Quality of Service (QoS)
• Deep Packet Inspection (DPI)
• RST Injection for TCP protocol
• Session Initiation Protocol (SIP)
• Digital Rights Management (DRM)
• Control technologies are mainly desired by
  companies in the restrictive competition
  eco-system but have little value for the end-user
  customers.

• Consider an evolution about relationships
• Mash-ups
• P2P
• Encryption
• People technology
• Creating Blogs, user generated content,
  podcasts
• Connecting Social networks, virtual worlds
• Collaborating Wikis and Open Source
• Reacting to others Forums, Ratings, Reviews
• Organizing content Tags
• Staying aware RSS, widgets and Twitter
• Cloud computing (XMPP)
• Traffic Scattering
• Network coding
• Many of these technologies have demonstrated
  considerable end-user value (for example, Bit
  Torrent, Skype, etc.) but many provide little or
  no value to the restrictive competition
  eco-system.

L9
Finance
L8
L7
L6
L5
L4
L3

• Other related issues
• Infrastructure costs
• Missing services/functions
• Privacy concerns

L2
L1
24
QoS How can QoS work today and in the future?
.when you consider

• Emerging future overlay techniques (P2P),
  mash-ups, traffic scattering, network coding.
• Encryption or use packet-obfuscation
• Lowest prioritization for all encrypted traffic?
  Privacy is systematically discriminated
  against.
• Most of the time the SERVERS ARE SLOW and NOT
  the network.
• Low Utilization is a fundamental part of network
  design
• Redundancy for reliability. Capacity for peak
  loads. What does it mean to run a link/box at
  10?
• Race with Moore's Law
• Link queue can empty faster than you can run
  instructions to make QoS decisions.
• QoS adds complexity
• Fiber capacity shifts bottlenecks from pipes to
  nodes and because of the enormous fiber speeds
  available, adding node queues to the mix of
  things that need to be QoS configured and managed
  doesn't appear to simplify the QoS challenges.
• Where is the ROI?
• etc.

QoS is NOT an adequate substitute for capacity
and potentially makes a bad situation much worse
25
At the Heart of the thing known as The Internet

• Its an environment that fosters experimentation
• Clearly "the place" for innovation of
  communication services
• Seems to be about the absence of impediments
• The lack of impediments seen in one eco-system
  and not the other appears to be making a huge
  difference in where innovation (and the
  associated wealth it generates) will be most
  successful.
• More experimentation then more luck!
  More !
• A major part of innovation is what we can call
  unexpected usage (or luck). However, the luck
  seems to be on the Internet side these days.
• Application-independent,
• TCP/IP or UDP are the backbones of the end-to-end
  nature of the Internet.

If history is any guide, a betting man would
probably look for the next large market cap
company to be about services and come from the
Internet eco-system.
26
A Major Challenge for the Restricted eco-system
Technology.
How can any technology which relies on extensive
core network control and takes an application
focus and consider packet information invariant,
adapt to overlay techniques found in P2P
networks, traffic scattering, network coding, the
increasing use of encryption, the emergence of
cloud computing, as well as trends related to
dynamically composed and instantiated concoctions
(formally known as applications) at the edge of
the network?
The web is becoming THE programming development
platform. Now, many view the web as the ultimate
programming platform that helps all of humankind
27
Lessons Learned

• Early, half-baked is rewarded better
• striving for perfect is the enemy of good, and
  doing so is very time consuming, very expensive,
  and easily by-passed
• Everyone wants to differentiate their products
• People always dream of reaching de facto nirvana
  
• Lock in your customers
• mine your customer set with derivative products
  and advertising
• Politics (or group affiliation) overrides many
  choices
• Economic incentives to succeed in the market are
  the major goals tied to differentiation
  strategies
• Technology religion (personality preferences)
  will override the benefits of standards to
  product developers and people running companies
  focused on success.

28
Conclusions

• Which Titan is winning??
• Restricted vs. Open this debate is still being
  waged on the technology battlefield
• The Internet eco-system has spawned great
  wealth, a massive number of jobs and even helped
  governments to grow tax revenues across the
  planet.

Understanding competition dynamics on innovation
is critical for any company trying to anticipate
where the technology is going, instead of chasing
it
29
Advice .Some Thoughts

• It is about winning..
• You should ask for the serenity to accept the
  things I cannot change, the courage to change the
  things I can, ..(and most importantly)
• the wisdom to know the difference!