Michael S. Pollard

1
Comparing Rates of Marriage and Divorce in
Civilian and Military Populations
Michael S. Pollard David Loughran (RAND)
Benjamin Karney
(UCLA Dept. of Psychology)
Contact mpollard_at_rand.org loughran_at_rand.org
karney_at_psych.ucla.edu
Enlisted - Marriage
Enlisted - Divorce
Introduction
Officers

• How prone to marriage and divorce is the military
  relative to civilians?
• What is a comparable civilian comparison?
• Have recent high rates of deployment been
  accompanied by changes in military marriage and
  divorce?
• No existing studies include post-2002 data.

• Differences in both marriage and divorce rates
  are smaller among Officers compared with Enlisted
  men.
• Differences in both marriage and divorce rates
  are generally stable 1998-01 / 2002-05 (not
  shown).

• The levels of Enlisted divorce are lower than for
  comparable civilians at all ages and for each
  race/ethnic group.

• Enlisted marriage rates are comparable across
  race/ethnic groups.

Conclusions

• Relative to comparable civilians, enlisted
  military males are more likely to marry and less
  likely to divorce, especially Blacks and younger
  individuals.
• Differences in marriage and divorce are both
  smaller for Officers than for Enlisted men.
• There has been no relative decrease in enlisted
  military marriage since 1998, but there has been
  some convergence in military and civilian divorce
  post-2001.
• There has been little change in the relative
  marriage and divorce of Officers since 1998.
• Possible Mechanisms
• Military benefits function as incentives to marry
  and remain married, particularly for civilian
  spouses.
• Key incentives may include medical benefits,
  housing allowance, separation pay, and relatively
  high total income relative to civilians at same
  education level.
• Selectivity of military population.
• Selection on sociodemographic factors.
• Selection on attitudes/preferences.

Data Methods

• Military Data
• DEERS 1998-2005
• (Defense Enrollment Eligibility Reporting
  System).
• All regular active-duty male personnel (entire
  military population).
• Civilian Data
• CPS 1998-2005.
• Male, non-veterans.
• Currently employed and working 35 hours.
• Have earned at least a high school degree.
• Methods
• Examine ever married and currently divorced
  (among those who ever married) in cross sections,
  by
• Age,
• Race (white, black, Hispanic),
• Calendar year, and
• Compare Enlisted males to civilian males with
  high school/some college compare Officers to
  civilians with a college degree or higher.

• Differences in divorce are greater for Hispanics
  at younger ages and greater for Whites at older
  ages.

• Civilian marriage rates are substantially lower
  for Blacks and Hispanics relative to Whites.

• Slight convergence over time in enlisted and
  civilian divorce rates for Whites Convergence
  for Blacks is greater (not shown).
• Trends over time are less apparent for Hispanics.
• Convergence in divorce rates is attributable to
  rising military divorce rates Civilian divorce
  remains stable (not shown).

• Slight increase in the difference between
  enlisted and civilian marriage rates in recent
  period Black trend is similar (not shown).
• Trends over time are less apparent for Hispanics.