Motivations for Proliferation and the Emerging Energy Problem

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Motivations for Proliferation and the Emerging
Energy Problem
AIR FORCE INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY

• Student ANS Conference
• Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute
• March 31, 2006
• 500 700 pm

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Proliferation

• A process in which a new type of weaponry is
  introduced into an area where it was previously
  not yet available. It is typically reserved for
  highly sophisticated weapon platforms or for
  weaponry considered to be unconventional and
  their delivery systems.
  Langford Intro To WMD
• Non-proliferation A decision (declaration) not
  to proliferate.
• Counterproliferation Actions taken to stop
  proliferation.

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Bottom Line

• Once technology is achieved, no absolute barrier
  to production.
• Difference between proliferation and
  non-proliferation
• Intent
• Opportunity

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Globalization

• Global Economy
• Interdependence
• Global Awareness
• Political / Nationalism
• Religion
• Human Rights
• Collective and Individual Rights (i.e. U.S.
  system protects both)
• Collective Rights (emerging issue in developing
  democracies)

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Technology

• Technology offers better standard of living,
  wealth, independence
• Communication / Information exchange increases
  education, capability, standing
• Raw materials are not a necessary key economic
  ingredient.
• ButUS security is dependentupon a technological
  advantage.

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Energy Finite Resources

• 84 million barrels/day
• Energy consumption to increase 57 from
  2002-2025, only 27 in US (Source EAI)

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Independence and Energy

• Oil is key to industrial development
• Abundance of sweet crude limited to a few
  regions.
• The Middle East accounted for over 65 of the
  total. Saudi Arabia alone had more than 25 of
  the worlds known oil reserves.
• Nuclear Energy Offers a viable alternative
• Raw materials available worldwide
• Technology for fuel production, separation needed
  for independence.

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Monopolar World

• Cold war ends - countries adjust strategies for a
  new paradigm
• Between 40-70 of USSR GNP supported military
  endeavors
• The elite professionals (weapons designers) were
  left in poverty after fall of USSR
• Wholesale expertise became available to the world
  market
• Protection/control of materials and facilities
  lost.

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Strategy Against Proliferation

• Counterproliferation to Combat WMD Use
• Measure, Interdict, Verify
• Strengthened Nonproliferation to CombatWMD
  Proliferation
• Diplomacy, Multilateral Agreements, Compliance
• Consequence Management
• Protection, Health Services, Communications

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Opportunities?

• Research Education
• Alternate technologies in support of fuel cycle
• Policy Take away advantage to proliferation
• Detection verification, analysis, protection
• Sensors Monitoring, verification
• Medicine reduce outcome

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Near Term Issues - 20 Years

• Environmental - Global warming, loss of
  biodiversity, depletion of fisheries, water
  deficits,
• Institutional -Poverty, terrorism, infectious
  diseases, natural disasters, and
• Structural -Taxing internet commerce,
  biotechnology ethics, global economy, trade
  policies, intellectual property rights, energy
  and water supply

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Shifting WealthThe Fuel for Change

• Wealth is a key ingredient for proliferators
• The US had 70 of worlds wealth after WWII
• Nuclear technology is expensive
• The US invested 5.5 Trillion dollars in nuclear
  weapons since 1940
• It takes 30 billion dollars per year to maintain
  the US stockpiles
• The USSR went bankrupt trying to keep up with the
  US

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Energy and the Volatile Mix

• The world currently consumes about 390 quads per
  year.
• Of these 390 quads, the US uses 96 quads per
  year, or about one-quarter of the world's energy
  production.
• The US population is about 290 million people,
  less than five percent of the world's total
  population.
• What happens as China and India emerge?

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Competition for Resources

• Increasing populations demand
• Fresh Water
• Rich agriculture land
• Developing countries demand
• Oil (e.g., China and India)
• Raw materials

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Seeds of Change

• The redistribution of wealth
• The rapid pace that knowledge is distributed
  through the internet
• The development of new technologies
• The competition for and the depletion of scarce
  resources
• The ability of rogue states and terrorist groups
  to wage asymmetric warfare