How CEOs View Future Trends in Education

1
How CEOs View Future Trends in Education
CHANGE IS COMING
It is not a question of whether change will
occur, rather a question of whether we will help
shape that change or be shaped by it.
From a League for Innovation survey of current
CEOs
2
Factors That Will Force Change

• The amount of information in the world is
  doubling every 18 months
  
• The world population will increase by 33 in the
  next 25 years
  
• The amount of data that can be placed on a
  microchip doubles every18 months
  
• By 2002, 329 million people will be connected to
  the Internet worldwide

• E-commerce sales will increase 600 by 2002
• By 2022 more than one billion will be connected
• New professions will arise to serve new markets
  and new institutions will be created - replacing
  old ones
  
• Change will occur in most cases because the
  current approach no longer meets the demand

3
Demographics that will Force Change

• Fewer than 25 of higher education students are
  now in the 18-22 year old age range
  
• 75 million people are participating in non-credit
  higher education learning experiences
  
• The USDOE projects 15.4 million US students will
  be in institutions of higher education
  
• Arizonas Community College population will
  increase 50 by 2020
  
• The number of students over the age of 50 will
  increase 101 by 2020
  

4
Educational Factors That Will Force Change
78 of all institutions of higher learning offer
at least one remedial course

• 2/3s of Community College faculty work part-time
  because of the part-time nature of our students
  

In 1995, almost all two-year, 3/4 of the
four-year and 1/2 of all private
colleges/universities offered remedial courses
More than 40 of all college and university
faculty work part-time

In 1995, 29 of first-time freshmen were enrolled
in at least one remedial course Reading, Math,
Writing

5
Key Issues Which Will Affect Our Future

• Enrollment Pressures
• Turnover Impact
• Partnerships
• At-Risk Accessibility

• Funding Accountability
• Technology Transitions
• A Learning Renaissance

6
Enrollment Pressures

• Increasing Diversity
• Anglo population in states like California and
  Arizona will no longer be a majority in the next
  decade
  
• Immigration, both legal and illegal, continues at
  an unprecedented pace
  
• So-called minority populations have huge
  percentages of their population under the age of
  18
  
• By 2010, US American Indian, Asian and Hispanic
  high school graduates will increase by 33
  
• Returning Graduate Students
• Specialties in Health professions require more
  training
  
• New computer skills are constantly required
• Changing software skills require regular
  retraining
  
• Competition
• University of Phoenix Harvard Online

• Regional Variations
• The Southwest is growing faster than any other
  region in the US
  
• Arizona is one of the two fastest growing states
• The Phoenix Metropolitan Area is one of the two
  fastest growing metros
  
• Economic Variations
• In the past, when unemployment was high, college
  enrollment rose
  
• Today, enrollment continues to rise in the lowest
  unemployment market in thirty years
  
• Credit/Non Credit
• Seniors are the fastest growing segment of
  computer users and are seeking non-credit
  courses
  
• Retiree enrollment is increasing as Baby Boomers
  retire and lifelong education becomes a reality

7
Turnover Impact

• Leadership
• Retirement is more attractive as more income is
  allowed under social security and more attractive
  retirement packages are offered
  
• Private industry is providing better pay and
  better opportunities as new industries emerge and
  unemployment remains low
  
• Faculty
• Large numbers of permanent faculty are nearing
  retirement.
  
• At MCCD, at least 25 of our faculty will be able
  to retire before June, 2005
  
• Technology Staff
• Retaining technology talent on public employment
  salaries is more and more difficult as private
  industry offers better pay and stock options
  
• Our booming economy keeps the demand for
  technology talent very high

Part-Time/Adjunct Faculty Low unemployment in p
rivate industry makes the low wages of adjunct
faculty less attractive Better opportunities fo
r part-time work in private industry exist due to
low unemployment Part-Time Staff The increasin
g utilization of part-time staff is a national
trend For the employer no benefits are required
resulting in lower cost For the employee there
is more flexibility and the ability to work more
than one job
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Partnerships

• Corporations have a huge demand for workforce
  development
  
• Welfare to Work has created new opportunities
  for higher education
  
• Foundation development creates opportunities for
  more private support of public institutions
  
• K-12/University Alliances are necessary for
  community colleges to insure a
  properly trained entry student and to insure a
  smooth transition for transfer students
• Partnerships at work
• Joint Use Facilities
• Estrella Mountain and Community Arts Center
• Roosevelt School District and Community
  Technology Center
  
• NFL-YET Center SMCC, Espiritu Charter School,
  community
  
• NAU Extension PVCC, SCC
• MCC, ASU Transfer Center
• Think Tank, East Valley Partnership
• Providing expanded opportunities for corporate
  and public partnerships
  
• Outsourcing of Service
• Cooperative arrangements with existing entities
  for service delivery
  
• Contracting with private enterprise for service
  delivery

9
At-Risk Accessibility
Basic Skills Courses Increase A third of first-ti
me freshmen are enrolled in at least one remedial
course

• Digital Divide
• As President Clinton recently stated on the
  Navajo Nation. You cannot be part of the
  digital revolution if you cannot access the
  Internet. You cannot access the Internet if you
  cannot get telephone service.
• In lower socioeconomic communities the desire for
  computer access is overwhelming
  

• The uneven level of student capabilities is
  increasing as the income gap widens in the US
  
• Arizona has the widest income gap in the nation
• In the past decade, income in the upper fifth has
  increased (in real dollars) 21
  
• Income in the bottom fifth has decreased 15
  Economic Policy Institute
  

• Computer labs in the NFL-YET Center and the
  Roosevelt Community Technology Center are always
  filled to capacity
  
• Some colleges are designated providers of
  Developmental Education under state/federal
  contracts
  

10
Funding Accountability

• Funding fluctuates
• For MCCD Federal (11), State (12.8),
  Local, Grants, Tuition (22)
  
• Calls for greater accountability by State
  Legislature
  
• Accrediting Agencies require greater
  accountability
  
• Performance Based Funding
• Collecting more quality data in standardized
  formats is required by many funding and
  accrediting agencies
  

11
Technology Transitions

• More than 1/2 of college classes use email
• 40 of classes use internet resources
• 50-80 of all students and faculty access the
  internet at least once each day
  
• More than 400 virtual colleges and universities
  are now available on the internet
  
• Crescendo in E-major
• Thomas Friedman of the New York Times says
  (11/29/99) that The next big killer application
  for the Internet is going to be education.
  Education over the Internet is going to be so big
  it is going to make e-mail usage look like a
  rounding error. E-learning, if done right, can
  provide faster learning at lower costs with more
  accountability thereby enabling both companies
  and schools to keep up with changes in the global
  economy. Schools and companies that ignore this
  will suffer the same fate as big department
  stores who thought e-commerce was overrated.
• Greater use of new technologies in Instruction,
  administration and support services
  
• Human Dimension
• Consideration must be given to student services
  in a competitive environment where customer
  satisfaction is a major factor in determining
  where students buy their education
• Integrated Technology System
• Technology Outsourcing
• Cost concerns for new and replacement technology

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A Learning Renaissance

• Place learning first
• 21st Century learning outcomes
• Fast Track Certification programs
• Health Care, EMT, Chip Workers, etc.
• Mind-Body Wellness programs
• As Michael Wolf said in the conclusion to his
  new book The Entertainment Economy,
  
• In the high-tech entertainment economy, the
  old-fashioned, low-tech motivator of change and
  innovation still reigns supreme The most valued
  commodity is the human imagination.

13
We All Must Learn to Accept Change and to Deal
With It

• In summary, CEOs believe that change will be
  forced upon us whether by changes in
  demography, funding, staffing or technology. No
  matter how it appears, change will occur and it
  will occur more rapidly as the years go by.
• In a time of drastic change, it is the learners
  who inherit the future. Those who have finished
  learning find themselves equipped to live in a
  world that no longer exists.

Robert Kennedy
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The Maricopa Community Colleges have a great and
strong story to tell to our future students and,
as Dana Atchley said,

• Humanity makes it impossible not to take notice
  of great stories, whether they are told around a
  Neolithic campfire or in the cathode-ray-glow of
  the digital hearth. It all starts with a well
  told Once upon a time
• If we all tell our stories honestly and well, the
  future never looked brighter for higher
  education.
  
• Dana AtchleyThe Sedona Conference 1999