Modelling the influence of regulations upon harvest rate

1
Modelling the influence of regulations upon
harvest rate
2
How do regulations affect harvest rates?
PImportant to quantify the relationship between
the imposed regulations during a given year and
the observed harvest rate PPartial
controllability PRegulations vary across
provinces, states, countries PWhat are
restrictive, moderate, and liberal regimes?
3
Banding and recovery data
PJuvenile bandings only PCanadian bandings
between July-September PPooled across
sexes PRecoveries stratified by flyway and
Canadian region PPost-1960 USA recoveries,
post-1970 Canadian
4
Regression models
PMultiple logistic regression PPredictor
variables bag limit, season length,
interactions PCovariate hunter numbers PAIC
model selection PModel parameters and variances
pooled using matrix form of model for continental
predictions
5
Regulations package specification
High
Low
Pred
Bag
Season
0.009279
0.007223
0.008187
L
L
M
L
0.009092
0.007544
0.008282
R
L
0.011927
0.009776
0.010798
L
M
M
M
0.012786
0.009331
0.010924
R
M
0.012108
0.007769
0.009701
L
R
M
R
0.012382
0.007775
0.009814
R
R
6
USA Regulations
Outlier
0.12
Atlantic Flyway
0.10
1 S.D.
2 S.D.'s
0.08
Recovery Rate
0.06
0.04
0.012
Mississippi Flyway
0.02
0.010
0.00
0.008
Restrictive
Moderate
Liberal
Regulations Package
Recovery Rate
0.006
0.004
0.002
0.000
Restrictive
Moderate
Liberal
Regulations Package
7
Canada Regulations
Outlier
0.10
Canada East
0.08
1 S.D.
2 S.D.'s
0.06
Recovery Rate
0.04
0.018
0.02
Canada West
0.016
0.014
0.00
Restrictive
Moderate
Liberal
0.012
Regulations Package
0.010
Recovery Rate
0.008
0.006
0.004
0.002
0.000
Restrictive
Moderate
Liberal
Regulations Package
8
North America Regulations
Pooled across regions
North America
0.25
0.20
0.15
Recovery Rate
0.10
0.05
0.00
Restrictive
Moderate
Liberal
Regulations Package
9
Derived Regulations Packages
For use in optimization and simulation
modelling...
Season Length
Bag Limit
Package
Region
94.93
5.5
Liberal
Canada West
85.7
3.6
Moderate
78
1.5
Restrictive
92.05
5.3
Liberal
Canada East
85.14
3.6
Moderate
74.66
1.5
Restrictive
60
4
Liberal
Mississippi
45.77
2
Moderate
29.5
1
Restrictive
58.75
3
Liberal
Atlantic
48.45
2
Moderate
30
1
Restrictive