War: Bargain Failures and Violence

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WarBargain Failures and Violence

• The Anatomy of War

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Summary

• The Anatomy of War WWI, Persian Gulf War I.
• Bargaining Failures Why do conflicts of interest
  turn violent?
• Private information with incentives to
  misrepresent
• Problems of Credible Commitment
• Issue indivisibilities

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Summary continued

• Ethnic Conflict
• Breakup of Yugoslavia
• Same logic of warfare
• Confidence-building measures
• Third-party enforcers
• Terrorism What do we know?

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World War I
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The War No One Wanted

• At deepest level, the war was caused by the
  growth of German industry and power.
• Following unification (between 1866 and 1870),
  Germany became the economic powerhouse of Europe.
• Germany experienced one of the greatest gaps
  between the distribution of power and the
  distribution of benefits of any country in
  history.
• Also important was Austrian-Russian rivalry in
  the Balkans, especially in Serbia.

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The Catalyst

• On June 28, 1914, Archduke Franz Ferdinand (heir
  to the Austrian-Hungarian Empire) is assassinated
  in Sarajevo (in Serbia).
• July 23-28, Austria issues ultimatum to Serbia,
  then declares war.

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The Schleiffen Plan

• July 31-August 1, European states announce
  mobilizations.
• August 2, German troops invade Belgium and France.

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By 1915, the war became a bloody stalemate in the
West.
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Russia Collapses

• In the East, Russia collapses into revolution in
  March 1917. Under the stress of the war, the
  Communists seize power and pull out of the war.

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The US Enters

• January 1917, President Woodrow Wilson calls for
  peace without victory and a postwar League of
  Nations.
• April 6, 1917, the US joins as an associated
  power. First US troops arrive on June 25, 1917.
• January 1918, Wilson delivers his 14 Points
  calling upon all the parties to clarify their war
  aims and outlining American goals.

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The End

• November 11, 1918 Armistice announced.
• July 1919 Treaty of Versailles completed, ending
  the war and creating the League of Nations.
• Overall, World War I produced 37 million
  casualties and 7 million deaths (approximately 5
  percent of Europes population).

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The Persian Gulf War I
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Persian Gulf War I Fundamental Issues

• Growing division in the Arab world, worsened by
  the end of Cold War.
• Moderates willing to work with US recognized
  that in a one superpower world, it was bad policy
  to be on the wrong side of the US.
• Radicals unwilling to accept US hegemony.
• Iraq sought vanguard position as leader of
  radical group.

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Persian Gulf War I Proximate Issues

• Increasingly desperate financial straits of Iraq,
  a product of the earlier war with Iran and
  declining oil revenues.
• Demanded that Kuwait write-off 30 billion in
  prior loans and cut back oil production to raise
  prices.
• Kuwait tried to bargain.

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The Invasion

• August 2, 1990 Iraq invades Kuwait in lightening
  strike.

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The Response

• August 5 President George H. W. Bush declares
  invasion will not stand.

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Putting the Coalition Together

• August 6 Economic embargo mandated by UN
  Security Council.
• August 6 Secretary of Defense Cheney meets with
  King Fahd. Agreement to send 250,000 US troops to
  Saudi Arabia.
• August 6 Morocco commits troops to defense of
  Saudi Arabia. First Arab state to join coalition.
• August 11 Syria commits troops to Saudi Arabia.

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The Embargo

• August 12 US blockades Iraq. Joined by 12
  coalition partners.
• August 25 UN Security Council authorizes use of
  force to enforce embargo.

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Gearing Up for War

• October 31 President Bush decides to double US
  force in Saudi Arabia. Decision announced after
  mid-term elections on November 8.
• November 29 UN Security Council authorizes use
  of all means necessary to eject Iraq from
  Kuwait. Insists upon a seven week pause for
  peace.

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The US Opts to Fight

• January 12, 1991 Congress authorizes use of
  force.
• January 17 Air war begins.

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January 18 Iraq launches SCUD missiles,
intercepted by Patriot missiles
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February 24 Ground War Begins
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Joint Forces The Left Hook
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Triumph Without Victory?

• February 28 Cease-fire announced, to take effect
  100 hours after ground war began.

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Military Positions at Ceasefire
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Why did the War End?

• US had international support only to expel Iraq
  from Kuwait. This was embodied in the mandate
  given to the coalition.
• 37 countries participated in the military
  coalition, including NATO members, Egypt, and
  rogue states like Syria.

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Personnel Contributions
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Financial Contributions
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Why the Coalition?

• Key to war effort was deployment of US forces on
  Saudi territory.
• US and SA built coalition to create counterweight
  to the dominant position of the US.
  Multilateralism was a means of tying the hands
  of the US, a power restraining strategy.

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Conduct of the War

• Constraints of coalition seen most clearly in the
  conduct of the war.
• American war aims grew over the course of the
  conflict.
• Coalition members insisted on limited objective
  of expelling Iraq from Kuwait.
• War ended at 100 hours because of military
  success and coalition members who would not
  support destruction of a clearly defeated enemy.