Week Monday, October 24

1
Week Monday, October 24

• IT Project Management
• Decision and Group Support
• Knowledge Work

2
Project Management

• Application of knowledge, skills, tools and
  techniques to project activities to meet project
  requirements
• Processes involve initiating, planning,
  executing, controlling and closing
• Knowledge areas involve integration
  (coordination), scope (project boundary), time,
  cost, quality, human resources, communication,
  risk, and procurement

3
Project Manager

• Setting up the project establish the scope,
  time frame and deliverables
• Managing the schedule coordinating activities
  and resources, and schedule of deliverables
• Managing the finances costs, cash flows,
  benefits
• Managing the benefits profitability, cost
  reductions, changes to working capital, and
  adherence to regulatory/legal reform
• Managing the risks, opportunities and issues
  identify and weigh
• Soliciting independent reviews

4
Change Management

• Helping people to accept change
• Overcoming resistance
• Accept and adopt changes

5
Lewin-Schein Model for Change
Getting people to change their behavior.
Move
Freeze
Unfreeze
Prepare for change
Implement change
Stop change

• Assurance that change comes with predefined goals
• Stopping change with goals are achieved

• Convincing people to accept change
• Selling the benefits of change

• Managing change

6
Lewins Theory of Change
Change
Restraining Forces
Driving Forces
Driving forces must overcome restraining forces
7
Fred DavisPerceived Usefulness, Perceived Ease
of Use, and Perceived Use

• Perceived Ease of Use
• Self-efficacy beliefs Perceived exertion level
  to implement behavioral change
• Perceived Usefulness
• Outcome beliefs Perceived success resulting
  from behavioral change

Perceived Use
8
Fred DavisPerceived Usefulness, Perceived Ease
of Use, and Perceived Use
Perceived Ease of Use
Perceived Use
Perceived Usefulness
Perceived use is the best predictor of actual
future use
If a person believes the amount of expended
energy to adapt to a new system will place
him/her in a better position as a result of its
use, he/she is more likely to commit him/herself
to using it.
9
Risk Management

• Types of risk
• Technical failure due to technology
• Business failure do due organizational issues
• Assessment of risks
• Projects leadership commitment, experience,
  abilities, formal and informal management skills
• Employees perspective acceptance to change
• Scope and urgency extent of change (breadth and
  depth), need to implement change

10
Risk Management
Likelihood of Business Change
Employees Perspective
Project Scope and Urgency
Recommended Project Method
Leadership
High
Big Bang

Less Risky
Improvisation
-

Guided Evolution


Top-down Coordination
-
-
Championed Dealmaker


More Risky
-
Championed Improvision
-
Champion Guided Evolution
-

Migrate or Kill the Project
-
Low
11
Other Aspects of IT Project ManagementBased on a
Survey of 10 Executives in Sacramento

• Develop and compare feasibility, complexity,
  scalability and cost of possible solutions
• Project portfolio investing in the right
  projects
• Aligning projects and initiatives to strategic
  objectives
• Risk management risk considerations, factors
  and plans
• Contingency plans
• Managing multiple vendors and workflow
• Regulatory and compliance issues
• Leveling resources over projects human,
  financial, technical

12
Other Aspects of IT Project ManagementBased on a
Survey of 10 Executives in Sacramento

• Project planning, execution and scheduling
  Prioritizing, defining performance measures,
  tracking processes to ensure performance,
  schedule resources, project monitoring, change
  and service controls, quality assurance and
  testing, identify key drivers
• Project leadership Assessing change and change
  management, communication and organizational
  skills
• Adoption issues
• Identify and understanding stakeholders

13
Good IT Project Management

• Deliver on time
• Come in or under budget
• Meet the original objectives
• Establish ground rules
• Foster discipline, planning, documentation and
  management
• Obtain and document the final user requirements
• Obtain tenders from all appropriate potential
  vendors
• Include suppliers in decision making
• Convert existing data
• Follow through after implementation

Successful project characteristics
14
Value of a System or Application

• Benefits the business will receive from the IT
• IT by itself provides no benefits or advantages
• Measuring benefits
• Distinguish between the different roles of the
  systems support role, integral to strategy, or
  product/service offering
• Measure what is important to management
• Assess investments across organizational levels

15
Measuring Benefits Role of System

• Measuring organizational performance ability to
  support the organization and its users with their
  tasks
• Measuring business value help meeting
  organizational and business goals
• Measuring a product or service profitability of
  product or service

16
Measuring Benefits Importance to Management

• IT is usually not viewed as a revenue generator
• Investment to improve the business
• Corporate effectiveness
• Less tangible benefits includes
• Customer relations (satisfaction)
• Employee morale
• Time to complete an assignment

17
Measuring Benefits Across the Organization
Sources of Value

• Potential benefits differ at various
  organizational levels
• Dimensions
• Economic performance payoffs (market measures of
  performance)
• Organizational processes impact (measures of
  process change)
• Technology impacts (impacts on key functionality)

Individual
Corporate
Division
Assess ITs impact in each cell
18
Value of IT Investments to Investors

• Brynjolfsson, Hitt and Yang study
• Every 1 of installed computer capital yielded up
  to 17 in stock market value, and no less than 5
• Led to organizational changes that created 16
  worth of intangible assets
• Past IT investments correlated with higher
  current market value

19
Value of IT Investments to Investors

• Brynjolfsson and Hitt study
• Organizational factors correlated to and
  complemented IT investments
• Use of teams and related incentives
• Individual decision-making authority
• Investments in skills and education
• Team-based initiatives
• Businesses making the highest IT investments not
  only invest in IS but also invest in making
  organizational changes to complement the new IS

20
Value of IT Investments to Investors

• Brynjolfsson and Hitt study (cont.)
• Led to adoption of decentralized work practices
• Frequent use of teams
• Employees empowered (i.e., given broader
  decision-making authority)
• Offer more employee training

21
Value of IT Investments to Investors

• Brynjolfsson, Hitt and Yang study
• Companies with the highest market valuation had
  the largest IT investments and decentralized work
  practices
• Market value of investing in IT is substantially
  higher in businesses that use these decentralized
  practices because each dollar of IT investment is
  associated with more intangible assets because
  the IT investments complement the work practices

Other resource
IT
Leveraging
22
Decision and Group Support
23
Anthony's Taxonomy of Managerial
ActivitiesMatching Information to Management
Levels
Aggregate
Infrequent
Quite old
External
Future
Wide
Low
Strategic Planning
Management Control
Source
Scope
Time Horizon
Currency
Frequency of Use
Required Accuracy
Level of Aggregation
Operational Control
High
Internal
Detailed
Historical
Well defined
Very frequent
Highly current
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Decision Making and Problem Solving
Herbert Simons Phases of Decision Making
Intelligence
Design
Choice
25
Decision Making and Problem Solving

• Intelligence
• Organizational objectives
• Search and scanning procedures
• Data collection
• Problem identification
• Problem ownership
• Problem classification
• Problem statement

Herbert Simons Phases of Decision Making
Intelligence
Design
Choice
Turban and Aronson, 1998
26
Decision Making and Problem Solving

• Design
• Formulate a model
• Set criteria for choice
• Search for alternatives
• Predict and measure outcomes

Herbert Simons Phases of Decision Making
Intelligence
Design
Choice

• Choice
• Solution to the model
• Sensitivity analysis (what-if, goal seeking)
• Selection of best (good) alternative(s)
• Plan for implementation

Turban and Aronson, 1998
27
Structured vs. Unstructured vs. Semi-Structured
Decision Making

• Structured DecisionsA procedure (i.e., rules,
  algorithms, etc.) can be followed in each phase
  of decision making and provides the
  decision-maker with a correct solution.
• Unstructured Decisions No procedures are
  available to guide the decision-maker during any
  of the phases of decision making.
• Semi-Structured DecisionsOccur when procedures
  are available to guide the decision-maker in one
  or two of the decision making phases, but not in
  all of them

28
Decision Making in the Organization
Management Level
Operational Control
Management Control
Strategic Planing
Structured
Greater Opportunities
Types of Decisions
Semi-Structured
Greater Opportunities
Unstructured
29
Decision Making Techniques
Satisficing and Heuristic Approaches,
Effectiveness
Strategic Planning
Management Control
Operational Control
Optimization, Efficiency
30
Decision Support Systems (DSS)

• Characterized as
• Computer-based systems that help decision makers
  confront ill-structured problems through direct
  interaction with data and analysis models

31
Decision Support Systems

• A DSS is an interactive computer-based system
  that utilizes decision models, gives users easy
  and efficient access to significant data bases,
  and provides display possibilities. The flexible
  capabilities of a DSS gives the user the
  opportunity to ask for information, to test out
  alternative ways of viewing the problem, to
  subsequently ask for different information, to
  use preprogrammed models, to construct his own
  decision-aiding models, etc. King, 1983

32
Major Components of a DSS
? Data Management
?
?
Model Management
DSS Software

• Database
• Data Warehouse

• Models
• Strategic, tactical, operational
• Financial
• Statistical analysis
• Graphical
• Project management

DialogComponent
?
?
Decision Maker
Turban and Aronson, 1998 Sauter, 1997
33
DSS and Problem Solving

• A DSS facilitates the decision-maker in solving
  ill-defined or underparameterized problems.
• Its most distinguishing feature is its ability to
  incorporate the judgment, knowledge, intuition,
  decision style and personal traits of the
  decision-maker into the solution.
• In a DSS environment, the decision-maker remains
  in control of the decision making process and
  directs the formulation of the solution.
• As opposed TPS and MIS solutions, a DSS solution
  does not always represent the best solution
  (i.e., maximum, minimum, optimum) since
  qualitative factors are usually considered during
  the decision making process.

34
Ski Resort Planning DSS

• An Application of Decision Support

35
Ski Area Planning

• All ski area physical designs require basically
  the same inputs and the decision making process
  is the same
• Each resort offers a unique system of trails that
  appeals to different skill levels and social
  groups
• Long-range objective is to maximize profits for
  the given terrain and market mix
• An optimum design concentrates on balancing the
  downhill and uphill capacities
• The system of trails cannot be easily changed
  once they have been carved

36
Ski Area Planning

• (cont.)
• Summer activities can complicate the design
• The industry is capital intensive

37
Ski Resort PlanningPrimary Objective
Downhill Capacity
Uphill Capacity

(Trails)
(Lifts)
Production Capacity
Market Demand
38
Ski Resort Planning

• Terrain Capacity Analysis
• Examine the physical attributes of the mountain
• Create initial set of trails
• Determine the mountain's downhill capacity (i.e.,
  trail system)
• Market Analysis
• Match the trail system to the market mix

Downhill Capacity
Best Design
Uphill Capacity
39
Topography Map (Terrain)
Steep slope
Expert and advance trails
Lift
Lift
Lift
Gentle slope
Lift
Novice and beginner trail
Each circle represents an altitude change of 250
feet
40
Topographical MapAn Example
Source Dept. of Geosciences, Idaho State
University
41
Physical Design

• Physical terrain and constraints
• Slope of mountain sides
• Physical obstacles (e.g., cliffs, boulders,
  creeks, etc.)
• Aesthetics (i.e., forest scenery)
• Designer selects the initial layout
• Initial set of trails
• Downhill capacity of skiers calculated
• Number of skiers per acre (judgmental)
• Type of skier (i.e., skill level)
• Regional density

42
Market Analysis

• Objective match the trail system to the market
  demands
• Seven skier skill levels
• Beginner
• Novice
• Low intermediate
• Intermediate
• High intermediate
• Advance
• Expert

Market Mix Percentage from each category
43
Decision Support System

• Calculates trail system capacity
• Matches skill levels to trail via slope grades
• Takes into account the skier density per acre by
  skill level
• Calculates the market mix of skier skill levels
• Provides the expected numbers from a given market
  mix distribution

44
Decision Support System (Cont.)

• Balances trail system to market mix
• Changes input parameters
• Trail attributes
• Density levels
• Market mix distribution
• Examines uphill capacity

45
Terrain Capacity Analysis Slope Inventory
46
Market Display Design for 3,837 Skiers
Number of Skiers
Skill Level
Goal
Goal
Current
Beginner
.05
192
224
Novice
.10
384
1166
Low Intermediate
.20
767
1418
Intermediate
.30
1151
478
High Intermediate
.20
767
217
Advance
.10
384
164
Expert
.05
192
170
Computed by the DSS
Market percent estimated by the planner
47
Skill Balance
Skiers per acre
Estimated for market
Designed into layout
48
Ski Resort Planning DSS

• Iterative process
• Adjusts made to physical design
• Skier capacities for each level are recalculated
  and compared to the market demand estimates
• Process ends when the uphill capacity (i.e.,
  market demand) is approximately equal to the
  downhill capacity (i.e., physical layout)

49
Data Mining

• Knowledge discovery
• Knowledge extraction
• Data archaeology
• Data exploration
• Data pattern processing
• Data dredging
• Information harvesting

50
Data Mining

• Five common types of information obtained by data
  mining
• Classification
• Clustering
• Association
• Sequencing
• Forecasting

51
OLAP and Multi-dimensional Database (MDDBMS)
Products
Sales medium (e.g., retail, Internet, mail order)
Geographic locations
Time is an implied dimension
52
Multi-dimensional Database (MDDBMS)
For example
Computers
Printers
Products
Scanners
Retail
Mail
Cameras
Internet
Sales medium
Oregon
Nevada
California
Geographic locations
53
Multi-dimensional Database (MDDBMS)Working with
Two Dimensions
Q1
Internet
April
95
Electronics
96
Q2
Mail Order
Audio
May
Total Revenue
Receivers
97
Speakers
Q3
98
June
Speakers
Retail
CD/DVD
Repeated for each quarter
99
Repeated for each medium
Visual
Q4
Entertainment
Repeated for each year
54
Multi-dimensional Database (MDDBMS)Working with
Three Dimensions
Q1
Internet
95
USA
Electronics
96
N. America
Q2
Mail Order
Audio
Total Revenue
Receivers
97
Europe
Speakers
Q3
98
Speakers
Retail
Aisa
CD/DVD
99
Visual
Q4
Entertainment
55
Time dimension
Retail sales dimension
Dimensions
Oracle Express
56
Distribution channels dimension
Retail sales dimension
57
Geographic Information Systems (GIS)

• Computer-based system for capturing, storing,
  checking, integrating, manipulating, and
  displaying data using digitized maps

58
Geographic Information Systems (GIS)

• Computer-based system for capturing, storing,
  checking, integrating, manipulating, and
  displaying data using digitized maps

Telecommunications, Teligent IT/Applications,
Vienna, Virginia By Jubal Harpster, Mike Ruth,
and Brian Sandrik
59
GIS
A GIS combines layers of information about a
place to give you a better understanding of that
place. What layers of information you combine
depends on your purposefinding the best location
for a new store, analyzing environmental damage,
viewing similar crimes in a city to detect a
pattern, and so on.
Source GIS.com
60
Source Edgetech America (discovergis.com)
61
Source Edgetech America (discovergis.com)
62
Source Edgetech America (discovergis.com)
63
Source Edgetech America (discovergis.com)
64
Source Edgetech America (discovergis.com)
65
Source Edgetech America (discovergis.com)
66
Based on acceleration of gravity and epicenters
of actual significant events showing magnitude of
event (Richter scale) (1900 - 1994)
67
(No Transcript)
68
Earthquake Probability and Transportation Network
69
Transportation and Unemployment
Source Edgetech America (discovergis.com)
70
Group Support Systems (GSS)
Collaborative Computing
71
Characteristics of the Group Tasks

• Problem solve poorly structured problems
• Long-range or strategic impact
• Organizational impact

72
Nature of Group Decision Making

• Group may be involved in a decision or
  decision-related task
• Characterization
• Joint activity engaged in by a group of people of
  usually equal or near equal status
• Outcome of the meeting depends partly on
• The knowledge, opinions and judgments of its
  participants
• The composition of the group
• The decision making processes used by the group

73
Nature of Group Decision Making

• Characterization (cont.)
• Differences in opinion are settled either by the
  ranking person present, or through negotiation or
  arbitration Turban and Aronson, 1998

74
Potential Benefits of Group Work

• Groups are better than individuals at
  understanding problems
• People are accountable for decisions in which
  they participate
• Groups are better than individuals in catching
  errors
• A group has more information (knowledge) than any
  one member
• Groups can combine knowledge and create new
  knowledge which may result in more alternatives
  and better solutions

75
Potential Benefits of Group Work

• Synergy during problem solving may be produced
• Working in a group can stimulate the participants
  and process
• Group members have their ego embedded in the
  decision and therefore will commit themselves to
  the solution
• Risk propensity is balanced (high risk takers vs.
  conservatives) Turban and Aronson, 1998

76
Potential Dysfunctions of Group Work

• Social pressures of conformity that may result in
  groupthink
• Time-consuming, slow process (single processing)
• Lack of coordination of work done and poor
  planning of meetings
• Inappropriate influences (i.e., domination of
  time, topic or opinion by one or few individuals,
  fear of speaking)
• Tendency of group members to rely upon others to
  do most of the work
• Tendency toward compromised solutions of poor
  quality

77
Potential Dysfunctions of Group Work

• Incomplete task analysis
• Nonproductive time (due to socializing, getting
  ready, waiting for people)
• Tendency to repeat what was already said
• Large cost of making decision (hours of
  participation, travel cost, etc.)
• Tendency to make riskier decision than should
• Incomplete or inappropriate use of information
• Inappropriate representation of the
  group Turban and Aronson, 1998

78
GSS

• An information technology (IT)-based environment
  that supports group meetings, which may be
  distributed geographically and temporally. The
  IT environment includes, but is not limited to,
  distributed facilities, computer hardware and
  software, audio and video technology, procedures,
  methodologies, facilitation, and applicable group
  data. Group tasks include, but are not limited
  to communication, planning, idea generation,
  problem solving, issue discussion, negotiation,
  conflict resolution, system analysis and design,
  and collaborative group activities such as
  document preparation and sharing. Dennis et
  al., 1988

79
GSS

• A GSS is an interactive computer-based system
  that facilitates the solution of unstructured
  problems by a set of decision makers working
  together as a group.
• Components of a GSS include
• Hardware
• Software
• People
• Procedure
• These components are arranged to support a group
  of people, usually in the context of a
  decision-related meeting.

80
Components of a GSS
Database
GSS Processor
Model Base
Groupware
Dialogue Manager
Users
81
GSS Layout
Projection Screen
White Board
White Board
Facilitator Console and Network Server
Projector
Workstations
82
Facilitators station
Whiteboard
Projection screens
Individual workstations
US Air Force Innovation Center
Group Decision Support Systems, Inc.
(www.gdss.com)
83
?GDSS Decision Center
Group Decision Support Systems, Inc.
(www.gdss.com)
?USMC HQ Executive Decision Room
Group Decision Support Systems, Inc.
(www.gdss.com)
84
Facilitator
Group Decision Support Systems, Inc.
(www.gdss.com)
DC OTR IV V Center, The Washington, DC Office
of Tax and Revenue
85
Electronic whiteboard
Projection screens
Facilitators station
Group Decision Support Systems, Inc.
(www.gdss.com)
The Airlie Institute, located at the Airlie
Conference Center in Warrenton, Virginia
86
Group Decision Support Systems, Inc.
(www.gdss.com)
Emergency Response Center at Maxwell AFB in
Alabama
87
Screen
Screen
Breakout Rooms
Group Decision Support Systems, Inc.
(www.gdss.com)
USAF Y2K Fusion Center
88
Electronic Meeting Support
Same Time
Different Time
Same Place
Face-to-face meeting
Administration, filing filtering
Different Place
Cross-distance meeting
Ongoing coordination
89
Tools

• Electronic Brainstorming. Gather ideas and
  comments in an unstructured manner.
• Topic Commenter. Supports electronic
  brainstorming in a structured format.
• Categorizer. Allows participants to
  cut-and-paste for a list or reference file and
  refine, rearrange, categorize, and consolidate
  the items from the file.
• Vote. Supports consensus development through
  group evaluation of issues.
• Alternative Evaluation. Allows the group to
  weight or rate a list of alternatives against a
  list of criteria.

90
Tools (Cont.)

• Policy Formulation. Enables groups to develop
  and edit a statement through an iterative process
  of review and revision.
• Group Dictionary. Supports information
  management by letting the group build, define,
  and store a list of terms that have the same
  meaning for all participants.
• Briefcase. Incorporates a memory resident set of
  utilities (all of the above) available to team
  members.
• Group Outliner. Allows a group to develop a tree
  structure (outline)

91
Tools (Cont.)

• Idea Organizer. Used for idea generation and
  idea organization
• Group Writer. Allows group members to create,
  edit, and annotate the same document (e.g., Lotus
  Notes).
• Group Matrix. Allows the group to establish
  relationships between rows and columns (i.e.,
  factors, variables, etc.) in a matrix format
• Stakeholder Identification. Includes stakeholder
  identification (i.e., entity impacted by
  outcome), assumption surfacing, rating of
  assumptions, and graphical representation of
  rating results. Turban, 1995

92
Sequence of Use
Electronic Brainstorming
What is the problem?
Idea Generation
Comment on ideas
Idea Organizer
Idea Organizer
Tools
Which are most important?
Prioritization
Vote
Topic Commenter
Idea Generation
93
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