Title: Alliance for Global Sustainability
1Alliance for Global Sustainability
2Table of Contents
- Mathis Wackernagel Global Footprint Network
- Christian Azar Turning the Tide
- Dennis Meadows Limits to Growth
- The Spanish Pathway
- Conclusions
3Disclaimer
- This report contains some material taken from the
proceedings of the AGS Conference. Those slides
are interspersed with material produced by me. - Since the proceedings were only published in PDF
format, all material taken from the proceedings
has been included in pixel graphics, i.e. by
capture and paste. - The material pasted from other documents is
clearly marked by hyperlinks. - The typeset text is all mine.
- Especially, since the material from the Spanish
pathway was not included in the proceedings, that
material (or rather, the interpretation thereof)
is all mine. - Finally and most importantly, the conclusions
presented on the last page of this document are
not official conclusions reached by the
conference, but rather, they are my personal
conclusions, for which I carry sole
responsibility.
4Global Footprint NetworkMathis Wackernagel
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7The Good News
- It takes relatively little additional resources
to dramatically increase the quality of life of
the poor nations.
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9Why is the European Gradient Steeper?
- It is steeper, because we live more wastefully.
- The poor nations use their few resources in an
almost optimal fashion. They cannot afford to
waste anything. - We dont think much about how we might use our
resources more efficiently.
- We heat our houses to high temperature values,
while keeping the windows open. - We buy food that we dont need.
- We maintain secondary homes that we dont need.
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11No Strings Attached
- The U.S. and the United Arab Emirates consume
simply because they can, without increasing their
quality of life any further. - It is human nature to think first about
themselves individually, and only later about the
species as a whole. - Humans are constantly in competition with each
other. They increase their feeling of
self-worth by taking something away from
another human being. - Example Easter Islands.
- If we want to survive as a species, while keeping
up a decent quality of life, we must learn to
become
not Berliners, but Cubans.
12The Bad News
- Becoming Cubans wont happen on its own.
- If the Cubans were given a choice, they would
gladly vote to become the 51st State in the Union
if only they could drive around in these
sinfully gorgeous SUVs, heat their homes in the
winter to 24oC, while cooling them down in the
summer to 18oC. - We achieve the transition either by regulations
or the planet will achieve it for us, probably in
ways that we wont like a bit.
13More Bad News
- Every species outgrows its resources over time.
- A population of lab rats will stop reproducing
only when there is no longer enough food for all
of them. - Populations are naturally controlled by hunger
and disease, not by living standard. - Whereas humans individually (on a local scale)
are capable of behaving in a civilized way and
helping each other, there has been no sign so far
that humanity, as a species (on a global scale),
behaves any differently from lab rats.
14Footprint vs. Biocapacity
15Global Ecological Balance Sheet(in global
hectares/person, 2003 data)
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18Turning the TideChristian Azar
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20CO2 EmissionsEurope (with Kyoto) and U.S.
(without Kyoto)
21Words and Deeds
- Although the EU signed the Kyoto agreement
whereas the U.S. did not, their increase in CO2
emissions over time is approximately the same. - Switzerland signed the Kyoto agreement.
- What has Switzerland done since then to actually
curb CO2 emissions? - Absolutely nothing.
- We talk a lot but the CO2 emissions wont go
away by talk alone. - As I shall demonstrate, relying on market forces
wont make them go away either.
22CO2 Concentration and Temperature
23Ice Ages and Temperature
24Ice Ages and Temperature II
25Mechanisms for Temperature Changes
- The climate seems to exhibit something like a
bi-stable behavior with long ice ages (around
100.000 years) interrupted by short interglacial
periods (around 10.000 years). - This behavior can only be explained by positive
feedback loops and nonlinearities. - We understand some of the positive feedback
loops. - We have no clear understanding of what brings the
next ice age about (although we have some ideas
about it). - We have no understanding whatsoever as to what
mechanisms end an ice age.
26Global Warming
- A predicted global warming of 3-5 degrees
Centigrade within the next 100 years is colossal. - The difference between current global annual
temperature averages and ice ages averages is
only 4oC. - If the average temperature rises by another 4oC
above current values, the arctic icecap will
melt. - The melting of the icecap will make the oceans
less salty. - This could derail the golf stream and bring the
next ice age about. - Since we dont really understand yet what we are
doing it might be a good idea not to do it.
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28Available Options
- Using less energy (e.g. by thermally insulating
the houses better) is by far the cheapest, i.e.,
the most cost-effective option. - Using other forms of energy is something that we
should do, but it wont solve the problem in the
short run. - Local decentralized solutions are more easily
realizable than global centralized solutions,
although the latter may be more cost-effective. - Carbon capture is a good technology for the
future for global CO2 management.
29Can the Problem be Solved?
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33Limits to GrowthDennis Meadows
34Overview of his Comments
35Main Contributions
36Three Types of Policies
37Energy Gap
38Easy Problems
39Difficult Problems
40Difficult Problems Become Easy with Greater
Time Horizon
41Why are Many Problems Difficult?
- Let me concretize the nature of difficult
problems by means of a simple optimization study
using Forresters world model. - I chose that model over Meadows newer world
model, because Forrester published his full model
in his book World Dynamics, whereas Meadows
published only the results of his studies in his
book Limits to Growth. - The exercise serves to demonstrate why market
forces alone are likely to drive us down the path
of overshoot and collapse, rather than down the
path of a sustainable future.
42World Model
43Simulation Results I
44Simulation Results II
The model shows nicely the limits to growth. The
population peaks at about the year 2020 with a
little over 5 billion people.
451st Modification
- Forrester thus proposed to reduce the usage of
the natural resources by a factor of 4, starting
with the year 1970. - This may be just as well. The effect of this
modification is approximately the same as saying
that more resources are available than
anticipated. This is indeed true. - Now, the resource exhaustion wont be effective
as a damping factor any longer.
46Program Modification I
- As we are now modifying a parameter, NRUN, this
former parameter had now to become a variable.
(I had to extend a few of the function domains to
prevent the assert clauses in the Piecewise
function from killing the simulation.)
47Simulation Results III
48Optimization
- We now want to optimize the consumption of
natural resources after the year 1970. - To this end, we shall need a performance index.
What is good, is a high value of the minimal
quality of life after the year 2000 (optimizing
the past doesnt make much sense). What is bad,
is a die-off of the population. - Accordingly, we modify the program once more.
This is all done in the equation window.
49Program Modification II
50Simulation Results IV
- The first two simulations are plagued by massive
die-off. The others are fine. - Yet, in the short run, those solutions that will
give us bad performance (die-off) exhibit the
best performance.
51Discussion
- The example shows what Dennis Meadows calls a
difficult problem. - Markets forces focus on short-term optimization.
Industrial decision makers hardly ever look
beyond 2 years. - Consequently, they will most likely favor a
solution that will lead to a massive die-off
further down the road (après moi le déluge!). - Easter Islands all over again ...
- According to Dennis Meadows, most problems
related to sustainability issues are difficult
problems.
52The Spanish Pathway
- On Wednesday afternoon, after the international
AGS meeting had ended, a separate Spanish AGS
meeting was held (in Spanish). - I participated in that meeting also, as I was
interested in hearing the Spanish viewpoint.
53The Facts
- Between 1990 and 2004, the Spanish CO2 emissions
increased by 46. - 35 of all Spanish CO2 emissions are attributed
to the building industry. - In the same time frame, the construction of new
primary homes grew by 30. The construction of
new secondary homes grew by 52. - For this reason, the building industry is viewed
as the single most important culprit in causing
the additional CO2 emissions. - Assuming a life span of 50 years for a building,
the CO2 emissions produced in constructing that
building contribute roughly 50 to the overall
CO2 emissions generated over the entire life span
of the building.
54The Proposed Solution
- The Spanish AGS researchers invited CEOs of
Spanish companies related to the building
industry to a meeting to discuss, how the CO2
emissions caused by the building industry may be
curbed. - If these emissions could be significantly
reduced, the overall emissions would decrease as
well. At least, that was the theory.
55Problems
- The problem with this approach is that the
different sectors of the industry are strongly
interlinked. - The building industry doesnt necessarily require
much fossil fuels they require a lot of energy. - If electricity becomes cheaper, theyll switch
over to using electricity, thereby making the
building industry look much cleaner while
leaving it up to the power companies to decide
how they are going to produce the additional
electricity that is now being required. - The power companies will most likely meet the
requirements by burning more fossil fuels.
56Analyzing the Observations
- In the time span between 1990 and 2004, the
Spanish stock market grew by roughly 46. - Hence the average person had 46 more money to
spend, or rather reinvest. - The people need to reinvest their money somehow.
Either they invest it themselves (e.g. by
constructing a weekend home), or they give it to
a bank to invest it for them (e.g. by lending
money to a home builder). - The investment consumes roughly 46 additional
energy. - The production of that additional energy is
accompanied by roughly 46 additional CO2
emissions.
57Conclusions
- If we want to reduce the CO2 emissions, we have
no choice but to use less energy, at least in the
short run. - The only meaningful way to accomplish this is by
adding a massive CO2 removal tax on the use of
fossils fuels. - This tax will slow down the economy. It will
make us all poorer in the short run (a difficult
problem according to Dennis Meadows), but it
will accomplish the goal of reducing CO2
emissions. - The tax will make alternate energy sources (like
solar power plants) more attractive, thereby
increasing the rate of their introduction. - The tax will also make us more conscious of the
indirect cost of burning fossil fuels. Hence
each of us is more likely to help our common goal
by using less energy.