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Alliance for Global Sustainability

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Title: Alliance for Global Sustainability


1
Alliance for Global Sustainability
2
Table of Contents
  • Mathis Wackernagel Global Footprint Network
  • Christian Azar Turning the Tide
  • Dennis Meadows Limits to Growth
  • The Spanish Pathway
  • Conclusions

3
Disclaimer
  • This report contains some material taken from the
    proceedings of the AGS Conference. Those slides
    are interspersed with material produced by me.
  • Since the proceedings were only published in PDF
    format, all material taken from the proceedings
    has been included in pixel graphics, i.e. by
    capture and paste.
  • The material pasted from other documents is
    clearly marked by hyperlinks.
  • The typeset text is all mine.
  • Especially, since the material from the Spanish
    pathway was not included in the proceedings, that
    material (or rather, the interpretation thereof)
    is all mine.
  • Finally and most importantly, the conclusions
    presented on the last page of this document are
    not official conclusions reached by the
    conference, but rather, they are my personal
    conclusions, for which I carry sole
    responsibility.

4
Global Footprint NetworkMathis Wackernagel
5
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7
The Good News
  • It takes relatively little additional resources
    to dramatically increase the quality of life of
    the poor nations.

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9
Why is the European Gradient Steeper?
  • It is steeper, because we live more wastefully.
  • The poor nations use their few resources in an
    almost optimal fashion. They cannot afford to
    waste anything.
  • We dont think much about how we might use our
    resources more efficiently.
  • We heat our houses to high temperature values,
    while keeping the windows open.
  • We buy food that we dont need.
  • We maintain secondary homes that we dont need.

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11
No Strings Attached
  • The U.S. and the United Arab Emirates consume
    simply because they can, without increasing their
    quality of life any further.
  • It is human nature to think first about
    themselves individually, and only later about the
    species as a whole.
  • Humans are constantly in competition with each
    other. They increase their feeling of
    self-worth by taking something away from
    another human being.
  • Example Easter Islands.
  • If we want to survive as a species, while keeping
    up a decent quality of life, we must learn to
    become

not Berliners, but Cubans.
12
The Bad News
  • Becoming Cubans wont happen on its own.
  • If the Cubans were given a choice, they would
    gladly vote to become the 51st State in the Union
    if only they could drive around in these
    sinfully gorgeous SUVs, heat their homes in the
    winter to 24oC, while cooling them down in the
    summer to 18oC.
  • We achieve the transition either by regulations
    or the planet will achieve it for us, probably in
    ways that we wont like a bit.

13
More Bad News
  • Every species outgrows its resources over time.
  • A population of lab rats will stop reproducing
    only when there is no longer enough food for all
    of them.
  • Populations are naturally controlled by hunger
    and disease, not by living standard.
  • Whereas humans individually (on a local scale)
    are capable of behaving in a civilized way and
    helping each other, there has been no sign so far
    that humanity, as a species (on a global scale),
    behaves any differently from lab rats.

14
Footprint vs. Biocapacity
15
Global Ecological Balance Sheet(in global
hectares/person, 2003 data)
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18
Turning the TideChristian Azar
19
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20
CO2 EmissionsEurope (with Kyoto) and U.S.
(without Kyoto)
21
Words and Deeds
  • Although the EU signed the Kyoto agreement
    whereas the U.S. did not, their increase in CO2
    emissions over time is approximately the same.
  • Switzerland signed the Kyoto agreement.
  • What has Switzerland done since then to actually
    curb CO2 emissions?
  • Absolutely nothing.
  • We talk a lot but the CO2 emissions wont go
    away by talk alone.
  • As I shall demonstrate, relying on market forces
    wont make them go away either.

22
CO2 Concentration and Temperature
23
Ice Ages and Temperature
24
Ice Ages and Temperature II
25
Mechanisms for Temperature Changes
  • The climate seems to exhibit something like a
    bi-stable behavior with long ice ages (around
    100.000 years) interrupted by short interglacial
    periods (around 10.000 years).
  • This behavior can only be explained by positive
    feedback loops and nonlinearities.
  • We understand some of the positive feedback
    loops.
  • We have no clear understanding of what brings the
    next ice age about (although we have some ideas
    about it).
  • We have no understanding whatsoever as to what
    mechanisms end an ice age.

26
Global Warming
  • A predicted global warming of 3-5 degrees
    Centigrade within the next 100 years is colossal.
  • The difference between current global annual
    temperature averages and ice ages averages is
    only 4oC.
  • If the average temperature rises by another 4oC
    above current values, the arctic icecap will
    melt.
  • The melting of the icecap will make the oceans
    less salty.
  • This could derail the golf stream and bring the
    next ice age about.
  • Since we dont really understand yet what we are
    doing it might be a good idea not to do it.

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28
Available Options
  • Using less energy (e.g. by thermally insulating
    the houses better) is by far the cheapest, i.e.,
    the most cost-effective option.
  • Using other forms of energy is something that we
    should do, but it wont solve the problem in the
    short run.
  • Local decentralized solutions are more easily
    realizable than global centralized solutions,
    although the latter may be more cost-effective.
  • Carbon capture is a good technology for the
    future for global CO2 management.

29
Can the Problem be Solved?
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33
Limits to GrowthDennis Meadows
34
Overview of his Comments
35
Main Contributions
36
Three Types of Policies
37
Energy Gap
38
Easy Problems
39
Difficult Problems
40
Difficult Problems Become Easy with Greater
Time Horizon
41
Why are Many Problems Difficult?
  • Let me concretize the nature of difficult
    problems by means of a simple optimization study
    using Forresters world model.
  • I chose that model over Meadows newer world
    model, because Forrester published his full model
    in his book World Dynamics, whereas Meadows
    published only the results of his studies in his
    book Limits to Growth.
  • The exercise serves to demonstrate why market
    forces alone are likely to drive us down the path
    of overshoot and collapse, rather than down the
    path of a sustainable future.

42
World Model
43
Simulation Results I
44
Simulation Results II
The model shows nicely the limits to growth. The
population peaks at about the year 2020 with a
little over 5 billion people.
45
1st Modification
  • Forrester thus proposed to reduce the usage of
    the natural resources by a factor of 4, starting
    with the year 1970.
  • This may be just as well. The effect of this
    modification is approximately the same as saying
    that more resources are available than
    anticipated. This is indeed true.
  • Now, the resource exhaustion wont be effective
    as a damping factor any longer.

46
Program Modification I
  • As we are now modifying a parameter, NRUN, this
    former parameter had now to become a variable.

(I had to extend a few of the function domains to
prevent the assert clauses in the Piecewise
function from killing the simulation.)
47
Simulation Results III
48
Optimization
  • We now want to optimize the consumption of
    natural resources after the year 1970.
  • To this end, we shall need a performance index.
    What is good, is a high value of the minimal
    quality of life after the year 2000 (optimizing
    the past doesnt make much sense). What is bad,
    is a die-off of the population.
  • Accordingly, we modify the program once more.
    This is all done in the equation window.

49
Program Modification II
50
Simulation Results IV
  • The first two simulations are plagued by massive
    die-off. The others are fine.
  • Yet, in the short run, those solutions that will
    give us bad performance (die-off) exhibit the
    best performance.

51
Discussion
  • The example shows what Dennis Meadows calls a
    difficult problem.
  • Markets forces focus on short-term optimization.
    Industrial decision makers hardly ever look
    beyond 2 years.
  • Consequently, they will most likely favor a
    solution that will lead to a massive die-off
    further down the road (après moi le déluge!).
  • Easter Islands all over again ...
  • According to Dennis Meadows, most problems
    related to sustainability issues are difficult
    problems.

52
The Spanish Pathway
  • On Wednesday afternoon, after the international
    AGS meeting had ended, a separate Spanish AGS
    meeting was held (in Spanish).
  • I participated in that meeting also, as I was
    interested in hearing the Spanish viewpoint.

53
The Facts
  • Between 1990 and 2004, the Spanish CO2 emissions
    increased by 46.
  • 35 of all Spanish CO2 emissions are attributed
    to the building industry.
  • In the same time frame, the construction of new
    primary homes grew by 30. The construction of
    new secondary homes grew by 52.
  • For this reason, the building industry is viewed
    as the single most important culprit in causing
    the additional CO2 emissions.
  • Assuming a life span of 50 years for a building,
    the CO2 emissions produced in constructing that
    building contribute roughly 50 to the overall
    CO2 emissions generated over the entire life span
    of the building.

54
The Proposed Solution
  • The Spanish AGS researchers invited CEOs of
    Spanish companies related to the building
    industry to a meeting to discuss, how the CO2
    emissions caused by the building industry may be
    curbed.
  • If these emissions could be significantly
    reduced, the overall emissions would decrease as
    well. At least, that was the theory.

55
Problems
  • The problem with this approach is that the
    different sectors of the industry are strongly
    interlinked.
  • The building industry doesnt necessarily require
    much fossil fuels they require a lot of energy.
  • If electricity becomes cheaper, theyll switch
    over to using electricity, thereby making the
    building industry look much cleaner while
    leaving it up to the power companies to decide
    how they are going to produce the additional
    electricity that is now being required.
  • The power companies will most likely meet the
    requirements by burning more fossil fuels.

56
Analyzing the Observations
  • In the time span between 1990 and 2004, the
    Spanish stock market grew by roughly 46.
  • Hence the average person had 46 more money to
    spend, or rather reinvest.
  • The people need to reinvest their money somehow.
    Either they invest it themselves (e.g. by
    constructing a weekend home), or they give it to
    a bank to invest it for them (e.g. by lending
    money to a home builder).
  • The investment consumes roughly 46 additional
    energy.
  • The production of that additional energy is
    accompanied by roughly 46 additional CO2
    emissions.

57
Conclusions
  • If we want to reduce the CO2 emissions, we have
    no choice but to use less energy, at least in the
    short run.
  • The only meaningful way to accomplish this is by
    adding a massive CO2 removal tax on the use of
    fossils fuels.
  • This tax will slow down the economy. It will
    make us all poorer in the short run (a difficult
    problem according to Dennis Meadows), but it
    will accomplish the goal of reducing CO2
    emissions.
  • The tax will make alternate energy sources (like
    solar power plants) more attractive, thereby
    increasing the rate of their introduction.
  • The tax will also make us more conscious of the
    indirect cost of burning fossil fuels. Hence
    each of us is more likely to help our common goal
    by using less energy.
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