Xcel Energy DSM Potential Study

1
Xcel Energy DSM Potential Study

• Randy Gunn
• Summit Blue Consulting
• 12/12/02

2
Agenda

• Xcel Energy and Summit Blue Consulting
  background.
• Xcel Energy DSM background.
• Current DSM potential study methods.
• Current DSM potential study results.
• Conclusions.

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Xcel Energy Background

• Company formed in 2001 by merger of Northern
  States Power Company and New Centuries Energy.
• Company serves 12 states, is headquartered in
  Minneapolis, and serves most of the population of
  Colorado.
• Has 3.2 million electric customers and 1.7
  million natural gas customers.

4
Xcel Energy Background (2)

• Total revenues are about 15 billion annually,
  the 4th largest utility in U.S.
• Regulated power plants generate about 15 GW of
  power.
• Company is a leading developer of wind power,
  with sizable wind farms in MN and CO totaling
  more than 400 MW of capacity.

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Summit Blue Consulting

• Consulting firm formed in 2000.
• Principals are Dan Violette and myself.
• Energy services is a principal practice area.
• I and other SBC staff have managed many previous
  DSM potential studies.
• Demand response is another SBC key practice area.
• Offices in CA, CO, IA, IL, MN and NY.

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Other SBC Practice Areas

• Retail strategy and analysis.
• Product, service, and program development.
• Product/program evaluation/market research.
• Energy systems technology assessments and
  potential studies.
• Restructuring analysis/policy development.
• Renewable strategy/program development.

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Xcel Energy DSM History

• Company has heavily promoted energy efficiency
  and load management for more than 30 years.
• Started with interruptible rate programs for
  large industrial customers in the late 1960s.
• Expanded into residential weatherization loan and
  audit programs in the 1970s.
• Continued expanding into residential, commercial,
  and industrial energy efficiency rebate and audit
  programs in 1980s.

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Xcel Energy DSM History (2)

• The Company currently manages about 30 energy
  services programs in MN and 10 programs in CO.
• 2001 MN DSM program results include 254 GWh of
  electricity conserved, 139 MW of demand reduced,
  and 521 Million CF of gas conserved.
• 2001 MN electric DSM expenses were 37 million
  and avoided costs were 280 million.

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Xcel Energy DSM History (3)

• Largest program demand impacts in 2001 came from
  CI interruptible rates, direct load control, CI
  lighting, CI new construction, CI custom
  efficiency, and residential Energy Star.

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Xcel Energy DSM History (4)

• 2001 MN electric program costs were about 1.0
  cents/kWh (lifetime).
• 2001 MN natural gas program costs were about 3
  million and avoided costs were about 9 million.
• Past 10-year MN electric impacts are 2,643 GWh
  and 1,086 MW.
• Past 10-year MN electric DSM costs total 370
  million, and avoided costs total about 1.5
  billion.

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Xcel Energy DSM History (5)

• MN law requires nuclear electric utilities to
  spend 2 of their revenues on DSM and gas
  utilities to so spend 0.5 of their revenues.
• Xcel Energy agreed to spend 15 million annually
  on DSM in CO for 5 years as part of a merger
  agreement settlement with CO parties.

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Current DSM Potential Study

• Originated from 2001 recommendation of Company MN
  energy services advisory group. The market data
  used for DSM planning was about 7-8 years old
  then.
• Primary purpose of the study is to guide
  long-term DSM planning for MN, particularly in an
  IRP context.

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Study Methodology

• The bases of the study are primary data
  collection and a technology forecasting model.
• Primary data collection includes
• On-site surveys of a representative sample of 525
  CI customers. Surveys collected key data about
  energy using equipment, building shell
  characteristics, customer energy decision-making
  criteria, awareness of ECMs and XE DSM programs,
  and market barriers.

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Study Methodology (2)

• Similar on-site surveys also being conducted for
  500 residential single-family customers and 50
  common area apartment customers.
• Re-commissioning DSM potential studies being
  conducted for 11 larger previous CI on-site
  survey customers .
• Telephone surveys of equipment vendors,
  technology experts, and XE customer account reps
  to forecast growth in awareness and adoption
  rates.

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Selected CI On-Site Survey Results--Lighting

• Current saturations of T8 lamps and electronic
  ballasts are about 70 for 4 systems, but only
  14 for 8 systems. In 1993, when the last study
  was done, the 4 T8 system saturation was only
  13.
• Current saturation of CFLs are about 38 overall
  compared to incandescent lamps.
• Occupancy sensors and other lighting controls
  have 1 saturations or less.

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C I Lighting Results (2)

• Customer awareness of lighting ECMs varied widely
  from 15-20 for newer measures such as T5 and
  pulse start metal halide lamps to 55-65 for
  older measures such as T8 systems and CFLs.
• Customer awareness of common ECMs like T8 systems
  and CFLs was forecast to be about 100 by now in
  the mid-1990s study. The difference may be due
  to considerable turnover in customers facility
  staff in the past 10 years.

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HVAC On-Site Survey Results

• Efficient centrifugal chiller saturations are
  currently about 15.
• Efficient rooftop AC unit saturations are about
  1.
• Customer awareness of common ECMs such as
  efficient rooftop AC units is about 60.
• Customer awareness of niche systems like ground
  source heat pumps and cool storage systems are
  about 20.

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Industrial ECM On-Site Survey Results

• Current saturations of efficient motors vary
  widely, from 1 for small motors to 22 for very
  large motors.
• Current saturations of ASDs also vary widely,
  from 2-3 for small motors, up to 10-14 for
  very large motors.
• Customer awareness of efficient motors is
  relatively high at 67.
• Customer awareness of ASDs is about 55.

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RERs ASSET Technology Forecasting Model Overview

• Weve used this model to prepare DSM forecasts
  for XE IRPs four times since the mid-1990s.
• Since the previous DSM potential study, the model
  was re-calibrated based on recent actual program
  results.
• For this study, the model was much more
  extensively re-calibrated based on 2002 on-site
  equipment data and expert opinion from market
  surveys.

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RERs Asset Framework
Customer Data
Technology Data
SegmentData
Technology Definitions
Technology Adoption Data
UsageProfiles
Segment/ Technology Information
AdoptionModels
Adoption Results
Energy Impacts
Utility Impacts
B/C Results
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Market Potential Concepts

• Technical Potential
• Instantaneous
• Phased
• Economic Potential
• Customer perspective
• Resource cost Perspective

• Achievable Potential
• Current incentive
• 0-200 of current incentives

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Technology Adoption Modeling Concepts

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Technologies

• Four-Foot Fluorescent
• Eight-Foot Fluorescent
• High-Output Fluorescent
• Compact Fluorescent
• High-Intensity Discharge
• Exit Signs
• Reflectors with Delamping
• Occupancy Sensors
• Daylighting Controls
• High-Efficiency Chillers
• High-Efficiency Packaged DX
• Evaporative Condenser

• Thermal Energy Storage
• Energy Management System
• Economizers
• Glazing Efficiency
• High-Energy Efficient Motors
• Adjustable Speed Drives
• Efficient Compressors
• Custom Compressor Measures
• Leak Repair
• Refrigeration Compressor Measures
• Refrigeration Condenser Measures
• Refrigeration Case Measures

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CI Lighting Results

• Total 15-year DSM potential for the 2002 Resource
  Plan is 200 MW and 970 GWh.
• This is 8-9 higher than the 185 MW and 879 GWh
  from the 2000 Resource Plan.
• Estimated program costs are 126 million.
• The largest ECMs are 4 T8 lamps and electronic
  ballasts, followed by lighting reflectors.

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CI Cooling Results

• Total 15-year DSM potential for the 2002 Resource
  Plan is 134 MW and 230 GWh.
• This is similar to the 135 MW and 243 GWh from
  the 2000 Resource Plan.
• Estimated 15-year program costs are 72 million.
• The largest ECMs are efficient centrifugal
  chillers followed by energy management systems.

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CI Refrigeration Results

• Total 15-year DSM potential is about 200 GWh and
  23 MW. Total program costs are estimated to be
  20 million.
• This is about 25 less than the 273 GWh and 29 MW
  from the 2000 Resource Plan. 2001 XE program
  achievements were about half what they were is
  1999.
• The largest ECM is efficient compressors.
• Customer awareness of main refrigeration ECMs is
  only 20-30.

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Process-Oriented ECM Results

• Covers efficient air compressors, motors, and
  custom measures.
• Total 15-year DSM potential for the Resource Plan
  is 127 MW and 622 GWh. Total program costs are
  estimated to be 75 million.
• This is similar to the 126 MW and 674 GWh from
  the 2000 Resource Plan.
• Custom measures estimated to have most potential
  based on recent XE program experience.

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Conclusions

• Overall 2002 15-year CI DSM potential estimates
  total 578 MW and 2,439 GWh.
• The electric energy conservation potential
  estimate is very similar to the estimates used
  for the 2000 IRP.
• Overall 2002 electric demand savings estimates
  are about 20 less than 2000 estimates, primarily
  due to smaller projected load management impacts.

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Conclusions (2)

• Overall 15-year CI program costs estimates total
  390 million.
• This is about 20 higher than the 2000 estimates
  due to a larger share of projected program
  impacts coming from new construction, and higher
  per unit new construction program costs than for
  retrofit programs.