Strategic Sustainability Assessment SSA Initiative

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Strategic Sustainability Assessment (SSA)
Initiative

• Fall Line Regional Pilot
• 8 May 2007

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What is the SSA?

• Provides Army leadership with analysis of the
  state of the future.
• Suggests strategies to close the gap between
  forecasts and desired futures.
• Bridges long-term strategic vision with
  short-term initiatives to meet objectives.
• Establishes dialogue with Army leaders, partners
  and stakeholders.

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SSA Fall Line Pilot Project
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The Concept
Preferred Future State
Possible Future Outcomes resulting from actions
taken along the way
Current State
Current-Trend
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Evaluating Regional Change
Pressures are accelerating
Key Forces
Impacts
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Methodology
lightly shaded boxes represent steps completed
to date.

• Define Sustainability Objectives

• Plan Course of Action
• Multii-Criteria Analysis of interventions

• Describe Present System
• Natural Landscape
• Land Use
• Demography
• Transportation/Infrastructure
• Economics
• Sustainability Vulnerability

• Determine Strategic Interventions
• Land Use Policy
• Technology Infusion
• Codes and Standards
• Market Approaches

BACKCAST

• Determine Key Forces
• Land Use Change
• Population Growth
• Military Transformation
• Economic Growth
• Climate Change
• Energy Source Availability

FORECAST

• Perform Gap Analysis
• The objective is to minimize the gap between the
  predicted and desired future state.

• Analyze Impacts and Future Outcomes
• Project impact on air quality, water quality,
  and biodiversity using current models
• Quantify the projected impacts

• Develop Scenarios
• BRAC
• Climate Change
• Demographic Shifts
• Economic Loss
• Energy Cost Shifts

• Model Alternative Futures
• Project expected land use change over 30 years.

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Related Projects
The SSA complements other efforts already underway
Installation Sustainability Plans (ISP)
Non-Profit Organization Interests
Local Comprehensive Plans
Joint Land Use Studies (JLUS)
Sustainable Ranges Program
by adding FORECASTING and BACKCASTING
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Regional Analysis
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ID Trends Forces
Historical Land Use Change Analysis
Sustainability Indicator Analysis
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Develop Sustainability Goals

• Military Mission
• Improve ability to organize, equip, train,
  deploy
• Water Quantity and Quality
• Ensure water is plentiful and meets standards
• Housing Affordability and Availability
• Maintain viable stock of available and affordable
  housing
• Energy
• Supply reliable, secure, and renewable energy
• Air Quality
• Meet ambient standards year-round
• Education
• School agencies meet required space objectives
• Biodiversity
• Increase biodiversity and species habitat

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Forecast Future Land Use

• Forecast expected future in 30 years under
  different scenarios

Business-as-Usual
Population Shifts/ Military Transformations
Climate Change
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LEAM Landuse Evolution Impact Assessment Model
Forces that influence future development

• Regional Economic Projections
• Residential Land Demand
• Cities Attractor
• Transportation
• Slope
• Water
• Nearest Neighbor Development
• Utilities
• No-Growth Zones

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Fort Bragg2000-20303 population growth per year
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Identify the Gap
2030

• 2000

500,000 population 200,000 households 260
million sq. ft. of commercial/industrial - 19,000
acres of agriculture - 34,000 acres of forest
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Water Use Gap Analysis

• Fort Bragg Sub-region Gap 250 million gallons
  per day

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Current Years Efforts

• Engage Regional Stakeholders
• Incorporate local input plans, data, strategies
• Impact Analysis
• Perform spatial analysis of forecasted gaps
  between desired and predicted future
• Strategic Interventions
• Identify actions that support sustainability
  goals minimize negative impacts of growth
• Model Iterations
• Forecast futures based on a variety of
  interventions at different points in time

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Stakeholder Engagement
Briefing regional stakeholders about SSA.
Coordinating with regional groups (e.g.
Sustainable Sandhills). Incorporate stakeholder
feedback into models and analyses.
Workshops
Website Forums
GIS Portal
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Impact Analysis

• Spatially evaluate impact of future gaps using
  existing tools and methodologies
• Impact on Water
• amount of surface runoff
• Impact on Air quality
• number of emission sources
• Impact on Habitat
• parcel size and edge
• Impact on Education
• public school capacity
• Impact on Mission
• training lands

Fort Bragg
2030
Amount of pollutants entering water supply from
run-off
2000
Total Suspended Particles (mg/l) 0 - 50
50 70 70 90 90 110 gt
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Fort Bragg
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Model Iterations
Do Nothing
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Outcomes of the SSA Pilot
INFORMATION and PARTNERSHIPS empowering regional
decision-makers toward a sustainable future

• Develop and predict impacts of Strategic
  Interventions.
• Refine Regional Sustainability Goals using
  feedback from analyses.
• Model Points of Departure from Trends
• When must action be taken?
• How quickly can trends change?
• Determine and address unintended secondary
  tertiary consequences.

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Benefits to Fort Bragg

• Achieve a better understanding of the current
  path for the region and the way forward to a
  sustainable future.
• Access a force multiplier for local and national
  level sustainability efforts already underway
• Share data and information.
• Realize partners in raising awareness and
  applying policies and practices.
• Create an umbrella for ongoing regional
  participation.

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How Fort Bragg Can Help
SSA Team seeking the opportunity to

• Present preliminary results from initial modeling
  and impacts analyses to the regional
  stakeholders.
• Develop/validate regional sustainability goals.
• Ground truth data/maps required for models.
• Collect region-specific information required for
  modeling scenarios e.g. strategic interventions
  and regional planning initiatives.
• Identify strategic opportunities for mitigating
  predicted impacts of land use change.

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For More Information
Contact SSA Project Karen Baker,
AEPI karen.baker_at_us.army.mil 703-604-2300 Fall
Line Regional Pilot Project Elisabeth Jenicek,
ERDC-CERL elisabeth.m.jenicek_at_erdc.usace.army.mil
217-373-7238
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Questions?
Policy
Lifestyle