Writing a Field Plan

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Writing a Field Plan
April 23rd, 2008
Listen live on Questions?
nightschool_at_democracyforamerica.com AIM DFA
Night School
Paid for by Democracy for America,
www.democracyforamerica.com, and not authorized
by any candidate or candidates committee.
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Welcome Back to Night School!

• Whats New?
• Streaming live at Blog Talk Radio
• New Look
• New DFA website coming soon!

Click here to listen
2 Questions? nightschool_at_democracyforamerica.co
m
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Tonights Trainers
Arshad Hasan DFA Executive Director Night School
Host
Helen Strain Field Organizer for over 20 years
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Field Planning in 2 Parts

• This session
• 1. Setting Your Vote Goals
• - Win Number
• - Vote Goal
• 2. Targeting Strategies
• - Geographic
• - Voting History
• - Demographic

• Next Month
• 3. Voter Contact Tactics
• - Canvass
• - Phones
• - Mail
• - Etc
• 4. Timelines
• 5. Benchmarks

RSVP for Part 2 of this series www.dfalink.com/fi
eldplan2
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Your Blueprint for Victory

• Contains your campaigns Goals and
• the Strategies, Tactics, Timelines,
• and Benchmarks to achieve them
• Person to person voter contact
• Delivers a campaigns message to
• targeted voters
• Tactics Canvass, phone calls, mail
• literature drops, etc.
• Builds a grassroots volunteer base

A strong Field Organization can help you gain
between 3-5 on election day.
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Whats Your Win Number?

• Step 1 Project the turnout

Projected Turnout
Turnout in last similar election(s)
Current number of registered voters

x
Step 3 Write them down!
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Targeting Your Resources

• Why target?
• Limited People, Money Time
• Gets the right message to the right voters
• 3 Ways to Target Voters
• Geographically
• Voter History Identification
• Constituencies

• Research Suggestions
• Secretary of State
• County Elections Board
• Party Voter File
• NCEC
• US Census data

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Calculate Your Vote Goals
District Total Current Registration 5124 04
Turnout 46.3 08 Projected Turnout
____ Win Number ____ Vote Goal (52) ____
Formula Key Projected Turnout Current
Registration x 04 Turnout Win Number
(Projected Turnout / 2) 1 Vote Goal
Projected Turnout x .52
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We need at least 1187 votes to win
District Total Current Registration 5124 04
Turnout 46.3 08 Projected Turnout
2371 Win Number 1187 Vote Goal (52) 1233
Region 1 Current Registration 1624 04
Turnout 31 08 Projected Turnout
503 Win Number 253 Vote Goal (52)
262
Region 2 Current Registration 1603 04
Turnout 55 08 Projected Turnout
882 Win Number 442 Vote Goal (52) 458
Region 3 Current Registration 1897 04
Turnout 52 08 Projected Turnout
986 Win Number 494 Vote Goal (52) 513
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Democratic Performance Index

• Percentage of the vote an average Dem can expect
  in an average election
• Based on voting history NOT voter registration
• How to calculate D.P.I
• About NCEC

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Find the Democrats!
Region 1 08 Projected Turnout 503 Dem
Performance Index 69 Projected Dem
Turnout ____ Vote Goal (52) 262 Vote
difference ____
District Totals 08 Projected Turnout 2371 Dem
Performance Index 46.1 Projected Dem
Turnout ____ Vote Goal (52) 1233 Vote
difference ____
Region 2 08 Projected Turnout 882 Dem
Performance Index 31 Projected Dem
Turnout ____ Vote Goal (52) 458 Vote
difference ____
Formula Key Projected Dem Turnout Turnout
Projection x D.P.I. Vote Difference Projected
Dem Turnout Vote Goal
Region 3 08 Projected Turnout 986 Dem
Performance Index 48 Projected Dem
Turnout ____ Vote Goal (52) 513 Vote
difference ____
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Not enough Democrats to win
Region 1 08 Projected Turnout 503 Dem
Performance Index 69 Projected Dem
Turnout 347 Vote Goal (52) 262 Vote
difference 85
District Totals 08 Projected Turnout 2371 Dem
Performance Index 46.1 Projected Dem
Turnout 1094 Vote Goal (52) 1233 Vote
difference -139
Region 2 08 Projected Turnout 882 Dem
Performance Index 31 Projected Dem
Turnout 273 Vote Goal (52) 458 Vote
difference -185
Region 3 08 Projected Turnout 986 Dem
Performance Index 48 Projected Dem
Turnout 473 Vote Goal (52) 513 Vote
difference -39
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How many persuadable voters are out there?

• Method 1
• Look for the blowouts to determine the Base Vote
• AKA Yellow Dog Democrats

• Method 2
• Compare campaigns with the same constituents

Candidate of vote in District Dem
Governor 57 Dem State Senate 46 57 - 46
11 of the voters are persuadable
100 - Democrat Base - Republican Base
Persuasion Index
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Find the Persuadable Voters
District Totals 08 Projected Turnout
2371 Persuasion Index 16.2 Projected
Perusable Voters 384 Persuasion Share ___
Formula Key Projected Persuadable Voters
Turnout Projection x Persuasion Persuasion
Share Regional Persuadable Voters / Total
Persuadable Voters
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A Winnable District
Region 1 08 Projected Turnout
503 Persuasion Index 18 Projected
Perusable Voters 91 Persuasion Share 23.6
District Totals 08 Projected Turnout
2371 Persuasion Index 16.2 Projected
Perusable Voters 384 Persuasion Share 100
Region 2 08 Projected Turnout
882 Persuasion Index 12 Projected
Perusable Voters 106 Persuasion Share 27.6
Region 3 08 Projected Turnout
986 Persuasion Index 19 Projected
Perusable Voters 187 Persuasion Share 48.8
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Questions?

• Email nightschool_at_democracyforamerica.com
• Instant Message
• DFA Night School

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Field Targeting Strategies

• DEM BASE PRECINCTS
• - D.P.I. Greater than 65
• - Identification, voter registration, volunteer
  recruitment, GOTV
• REPUBLICAN BASE PRECINCTS
• - D.P.I. less than 35
• - Lowest priority, highly targeted contact only
• SWING PRECINCTS
• - D.P.I. greater than 65
• - Identification, Persuasion GOTV

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Targeting with Voter History

• Voter Contact Priorities
• Undecideds likely to Vote (ID,
  Persuasion)
• Supporters less likely to vote (ID, GOTV)
• Undecideds less likely to vote (ID, Persuasion,
  GOTV)
• Supporters likely to vote (Base building)

Partisanship ID
Voting History
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VAN Power
One big list of voters for all Democrats The VAN
doesnt fix itself!
Contact your local county Democratic Party or DNC
organizer for access
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Targeting with Constituencies

• Look at your candidate and message
• Identify your supporters in the
• community
• Listen!
• Build bases of support

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Questions

• Email
• nightschool_at_democracyforamerica.com
• Instant Message
• DFA Night School

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Homework

• Download the attached worksheet
• Click Here to download
• 2. Calculate the Vote Goals in your area
• 3. Sign up for next months Night School
• www.dfalink.com/fieldplan2

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Learn more every Month
DFA Training Weekends April 26-27 West Long
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10-11 Cincinnati, OH May 31-June 1 Pittsburgh,
PA June 7-8 Lansing, MI June 14-15 Kansas City,
MO June 21-22 Albuquerque, NM July 12-13 Miami,
FL July 17-20 Austin, TX Netroots
Nation www.democracyforamerica.com/training

• May 28th 830pm ET
• Writing a Field Plan
• Part 2 Tactics,
• Timelines,
• Benchmarks
• www.dfalink.com/
• Fieldplan2

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