Dr Willem van der Geest, Director of EIAS,

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European Institute for Asian Studies, Brussels

• Dr Willem van der Geest, Director of EIAS,
• Brussels is specialised in issues of economic
  development and the international political
  economy of EU-Asia relations.

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Outline of the Presentation

• Methodological Remark
• Demographic Change across Asia and EU by 2050
• Social and economic aspects of Asias changing
  demographic structures
• Demographic Change and Economic Performance
• Research Agenda for EU-Asia Patterns and
  Disparities of Development

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Methodological Remark

• Research into Disparities in Development Patterns
  relies on different methods
• 1. Comparing performance and outcome indicators
• Cross-country examination of FDI, HDI, social
  indicators, governance indicators, etc.
• Descriptive analysis of differences within
  countries (by regions, by ethnicity, income and
  resource inequality, differential access to
  employment, etc.
• 2. Analysis of determinants of disparities
• institutional economic and political factors (eg
  regional policies) international variables like
  terms of trade, exchange rate movements etc.

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Methodological Remark (contd)

• 3. Analysis of resource and factor
  availabilities/potentials
• Assess long term trends in factor supply (human
  resources, physical capital, land, water,
  technology, etc.)
• My approach for this presentation will focus on
  human resources and comparative demographic
  outlook and identify some normative conclusions
  (implications for EU and policy-perspectives)
• Numerous uncertainties hence, conclude with
  possible issues for a research agenda EU-ASIA
  Development Research Agenda

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Present population distribution and density
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Population growth in Asia and Europe
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Population size by countries and regions- up to
2100
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Fertility decline and stabilization

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Fertility decline and stabilization

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Infant Mortality Selected Countries

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Age re-composition in Asia

• Age structure of a given population owes its
  general profile mostly to past fertility and
  mortality levels and trends.

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Age re-composition in Asia 1950-2050
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Age re-composition in EU and Asia 1950-2050
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Age composition in China 2005-2050
Chinas millions of elderly
China is taking the lions share in the Asias
ageing process. 144 out of the 365 million of
people aged 60 and above in Asia today are
Chinese, i.e. 39 percent of the total. According
the UN forecasts, this number should reach 348
million in 2030 at a time when aged Chinese will
account for 42 percent of the Asias total. But
this proportion for China will then deflate, as
large generations of Indians born in the 1980s
get older. Nevertheless, Chinas supremacy will
remain for a long period in 2050, among the 1231
million aged people predicted in Asia, 431
million will be Chinese (35 percent) and 330
million (27 percent) will be Indian. Demographers
have already mapped the annual waves of people
entering retiring age during the 21st century,
with a peak among men as early as 2025 (Yan,
2006).
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Age structure and working population
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Age structure and working population Asia, EU,
China and India
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Dependency Ratio Asia and EU
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Dependency Ratio Selected Asian countries
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Participation Ratios (ILO) Asian regions
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Participation Ratios (ILO) by gender
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Participation Ratios (ILO) by gender
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Demographic Change and Economic Performance
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Globalization and Demographic Change
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Globalization and Demographic Change
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Globalization and Demographic Change
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Educational Attainment Enrolment, Adult Literacy
and Public Expenditure
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Educational Attainment Enrolment, Adult Literacy
and Public Expenditure
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Educational Attainment (PISA)
2003 PISA international comparison of problem
solving skills of 15 year old pupils (OECD
countries and selected Asian countries) Average
score 500 (standard deviation 100)   United
States 477 Russian Federation 479 EU
Highest score Finland 548, at par with Hong Kong
  Top score of Korea at 550   Japan
547 Indonesia 361 Thailand 425   For
participating EU Member States the scores were as
follows Austria 506 Belgium 525 Czech Republic
516 Denmark 517 Finland 548, France 519,
Germany 513, Greece 448, Hungary 501, Italy 469,
Latvia 483 Netherlands 520, Poland 487, Portugal
470, Slovak Republic 492, Spain 482 and Sweden
509.

 
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Educational Attainment Outlook for China
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Labour Productivity Gaps Demographic
Determinants?
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EU-ASIA Linkages Migration and Remittances
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EU-ASIA Linkages Presence of Diaspora
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EU-ASIA Linkages Presence of Diaspora
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Research Agenda for EU-Asia Patterns and
Disparities of Development (1)
    -Regional Disparity and Migration
Propensity.   -Vulnerability and Development
Assistance.   -Asias Demographic Dividends.
  -Jobless growth in Asia.   -Increasing
Savings and Domestic Consumption.   -Growing
gender imbalances.   -Opportunities for Human
Capital Resources. -Improved Migration
Monitoring and Forecasting.
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Research Agenda for EU-Asia Patterns and
Disparities of Development (2)
 
  EU-Asia economic impact and
opportunities            - an increasing demand
for EU goods and services from the fast-growing
rapidly urbanising Asian population - the
demand for tradable services will outstrip the
aggregate demand, due to the age structure high
income-elasticitiy of demand airline services,
educational demands, internet, etc. -
services which are labour and skills-intensive
but not EU location specific will increasingly be
outsourced to Asia (e.g. business processes,
research development, design).