Overview of Other RPO Modeling Work

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Overview of Other RPO Modeling Work
Ralph Morris ENVIRON International Corporation,
Novato, CA Gail Tonnesen University of
California, Riverside
WRAP Modeling Forum Meeting, San Francisco, CA
March 8-9 18, 2005
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Five RPOs to Address Regional Haze

• CENRAP
• CENSARA
• MRPO
• LADCO
• VISTAS
• SESARM
• MANE-VU
• NESCAUM
• MARAMA
• OTC

Inter-RPO Technical Meeting June 8-10 in Denver
Colorado
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CENRAP Central States

• Feb 28 Mar 2, 2005 Workgroup and POG meeting in
  Dallas Texas
• Draft Updated Long-Range Plan (March 2004)
• Modeling Forum Co-Chairs Lee Warden OK DEQ and
  Calvin Ku MO DNR
• Emissions and Air Quality Modeling Contractors
  ENVIRON and UCR
• Modeling Advisor Tom Tesche, Alpine Geophysics
• Modeling Approach
• 2002 Annual _at_ 36 km (12 km considered)
• MM5 Met and SMOKE Emissions
• CMAQ and CAMx Models (no preference yet)

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CENRAP Modeling Schedule

• 2002 CENRAP States Emissions 12/21/04
• 2002 36 km SMOKE modeling 02/21/05
• 2002 36 km CMAQ and CAMx modeling 04/30/05
• 2002 8 weeks 12 km modeling 04/30/05
• 2018 36 km SMOKE Emissions 04/30/05
• May be delayed due to 2018 IPM run scheduled for
  June 2005

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CENRAP Modeling Schedule

• May August 2005
• Model sensitivity analysis
• Updated 2002 emissions
• PM Source Apportionment modeling
• Sensitivity Report 08/31/05
• September 2005 April 2006
• Control strategy modeling
• July 1, 2006 Begin draft SIPs/TIPs

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Midwest RPO

• 2002 Base I Emissions (2002 CEER, CMU Ammonia)
  January 2005
• Contractors Various (ENVIRON, STI, UCR, Alpine
  Geophysics,)
• Most modeling work done in-house _at_ LADCO Kirk
  Baker, Mark Jansen, Donna Kinski, Mike Koerber
• Modeling Approach
• MM5 Met and EMS2004 Emissions
• CAMx Primary AQ Model (CMAQ corroborative model)
• Have performed 36 km annual runs for 2001, 2002
  and 2003 2002 primary year for PM2.5 and
  visibility
• Four RPO 36 km Modeling Domain
• Some 12 km modeling for 2002

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MRPO Milestones

• February 2005
• Final Base Case Emissions and Base Case
  Modeling
• Project Team to Review Round 1 Modeling
• March 2005
• Round 2 Control Strategy Emissions
• May 2005
• Project team Meeting on Round 2 Modeling
• June 2005
• Round 3 Control Strategy Emissions

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MRPO Milestones/Modeling

• August November 2005
• Project Team Meeting to discuss regional/local
  strategies for Ozone, PM2.,5 and Regional Haze

NO3
SO4
NH4
OC
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VISTAS Southeast RPO

• Schedule driven by NC and VA two-year legislative
  review cycle
• Modeling Approach
• Pat Brewer Coordinator Jim Boylan GA DEPD
  Technical Lead
• Contractors ENVIRON, Alpine Geophysics and UCR
  GATech Sensitivity SAI CART
• MM5 Met (BAMS) and SMOKE Emissions
• CMAQ Primary model (CAMx sensitivity runs)
• 36 km USA 12 km Eastern US
• 2002 Annual Period
• Initial 2002 Base A Case Summer 2004
• Revised 2002 Base C Case September 2004

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VISTAS SO4 Revised 2002 CMAQ 36 km Base C --
Summer
11

• Nitrate (NO3) CMAQ 36 km Fractional Bias
• Base A
• Base C
• Winter NO3 overestimation bias much improved

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NO3 Initial 2002 CMAQ 36 km Base C -- Winter
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• Organic Carbon (OC) CMAQ 36 km Fractional Bias
• Base A IMPROVE/SEARCH
• Base C IMPROVE/SEARCH
• Mainly degradation in OC performance toward
  larger underestimation

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Missing/Uncertainties in CMAQ SOA Module

• Polymerization SOA becomes nonvolatile
• e.g. after 20 hours 50 of SOA no longer volatile
  (Kalberer et al., Science 2004 303 1659 Jang et
  al., 2002)
• Reactivity CGs are reactive VOCs that should
  oxidize and participate in photochemistry
• Uncertain SOA Parameters CalTech chamber data
  used to fit CMAQ SOA parameters found to have
  artifacts (Keywood et. al. 2003)
• Sesquiterpenes Not included, known important SOA
• Isoprene Not included, high in southeastern US
• New evidence that isoprene may be SOA precursor
  (Claeys et al., Science 2004 303 1173)
• Biogenic OVOC Also SOA precursor

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VISTAS SOA Updates
(Red New Processes)
G_ISP
Y1
O
O
ISOP
ISPD
ISPRXN
SGTOT_ISP
A_ISP
ASOC3
P1
PAR OLE ALD2
G_TRP1
SGTOT _TRP1
Biogenic emissions
Y3
A_TRP1
EF1
G_TRP2
AORGB
Y4
O
SGTOT _TRP2
TERP
TERPRXN
A_TRP2
EF2 ( EEG1 Y2 EEA1 )
ASOC2
OVOC
FPOLY
ASOC1
All SOAs except SOC1 SOC2
Polymerization
PAR OLE NR
O Oxidation reaction with OH, O3, and
NO3 ISPRXN the amount of reacted ISPD with
oxidants TERPRXN the amount of reacted TERP with
oxidants Dotted box not implemented in the
initial test
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OC July 2002 VISTAS IMPROVE SEARCH
FB -103 ? -2
FB -118 ? -27
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OC/TCM July 2002 CENRAP IMPROVE STN
OC FB -98 ? 8
TCM FB -69 ? -23
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OC/TCM July 2002 WRAP IMPROVE STN
OC FB 40 ? 84
TCM FB -6 ? 21
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2005 Emissions and Air Quality Modeling
Deliverables
Draft 12/20/04
2018 IPM EGU Strategies 2 Apr 2005
2018 IPM EGU forecast 2 Dec 2004
2009 IPM EGU forecast 2 Dec 2004
Meteorology modeling protocol
2009 Base Inventory Jan 15, 05
2018 Base 1 Inventory Dec 10, 04
2018 Base 2 Inventory Dec 31, 04
2018 Strategy Inv no IPM Apr 05
2018 Strategy Inv w/ IPM 2 May 05
Emissions air quality modeling protocol
2018 episode sensitivity CMAQ runs May - Sep 05
2009 Base SMOKE run Feb 15, 05
2018 Base 2 SMOKE run Jan 31, 05
2018 Strategy SMOKE run May 05
2018 Strategy SMOKE 2 Jun 05
2018 Base 1 SMOKE run Jan 17, 05
Conceptual Description
2018 final strategy CMAQ run Sep - Oct 05
2009 Base CMAQ run Mar 31, 05
2018 Base 2 CMAQ run Mar 15, 05
2018 Strategy CMAQ 2 Jul 05
2018 Base 1 CMAQ run Mar 1, 05
2018 Strategy CMAQ run Jun 05
2002 CMAQ Performance Evaluation
Observations, Conclusions, Recommendations Dec
04 - Dec 05
2002 Typical CMAQ Base Case
VISTAS define 2018 control strategies Mar - Aug
05
State Regulatory Activities 2005 2007
2002 Mobile Re-run SMOKE CMAQ Feb Apr 05
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MANE-VU Update

• Models CMAQ, REMSAD, CALGRID and CALPUFF
• MANE-VU States 2002 Emissions available 02/15/05
• http//www.marama.org/visibility/Inventory20Summa
  ry/2002EmissionsInventory.htm
• 2002 Annual Period
• 12 km OTAG Grid (MO in west, GA in south)
• SMOKE, CMAQ and REMSAD (for SO4 tagging)
• 2002 Base Case Spring 2005
• August September 2005 2009 and 2018
  Future-Year Modeling
• Control Strategy Modeling by end of 2005

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MANE-VU Update

• Contribution to PM2.5 Assessment report due March
  15, 2005
• 6-7 Techniques to estimate PM2.5 contributions at
  MANE-VU Class I Areas
• Back trajectories
• CALGRID and REMSAD tagged SO4 Modeling
• Etc.
• Modeling conducted in-house
• E.g., Gary Kleiman, NESCAUM

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RPO Timeline Plans