VISTAS

1
VISTAS Project Overview Asheville, NC Aug 17,
2005
Mt. Cammerer, Great Smoky Mtns. National Park
2
Draft 4/6/05
VISTAS Deliverables to State Implementation
Plans for Regional Haze
Observations, Conclusions, Recommendations Dec
04 - Dec 05
Delivered 2004
Natural Visibility and Reasonable Progress
Goals Jun Oct 05
Visibility PM2.5 Trends
Public Consultation 2005-2007
Site-Specific Descriptions Dec 04 Aug 05
Conceptual Description
Guidance to State Planning for Regional Haze
Dec 2005
Select Episodes Spring 05
Characterize Meteorology
Control Strategy Inventories Jun Oct 05
Strategy Demonstration 2006-2007
Utility Forecast 2009-2018 May 05
Emissions Inventories 2002, 2009, 2018
Reports and SIP Appendices 2006
Control Strategy AQ Model Runs Aug - Dec 05
AQ Model Runs 2002, 2009, 2018 Dec 04 May 05
Met, Em, and AQ Model protocol performance
Economic Analyses Oct 2005
2018 Control Strategy Design Apr - Oct 05
State Regulatory Decisions
Emission Sensitivities
Identify BART sources and control options
BART modeling protocol impacts Jan - Dec 05
BART control evaluation Jan Dec 05
BART controls 2005-2007
Inter-RPO-State 2005-2007
3
Draft 8/8/05
VISTAS Deliverables to State Implementation
Plans for Regional Haze
Observations, Conclusions, Recommendations Dec
04 - Dec 06
Delivered 2004
Natural Visibility and Reasonable Progress
Goals Jun Oct 05
Visibility PM2.5 Trends
Public Consultation 2005-2007
Site-Specific Descriptions Dec 04 2006
Conceptual Description
Guidance to State Planning for Regional Haze
Jun 2006
Select Episodes Jul 05
Characterize Meteorology
Control Strategy Inventories Nov 05 Mar 06
Strategy Demonstration 2006-2007

Jul 05
Utility Forecast 2009-2018 Dec 04
Emissions Inventories 2002, 2009, 2018
Jul 05
Repeat

Reports and SIP Appendices 2006-2007
Control Strategy AQ Model Runs Jan - Jun 06
AQ Model Runs 2002, 2009, 2018 Dec 04 May 05
Met, Em, and AQ Model protocol performance
Oct 05
Economic Analyses Mar 06
2018 Control Strategy Design Oct 05 Jan 06
State Regulatory Decisions
Emission Sensitivities
Aug Dec 05
BART modeling protocol impacts Jan 05 Jan 06
BART control evaluation Jan Jun 06
Identify BART sources and control options
BART controls 2005-2007
Inter-RPO-State 2005-2007
4
Visibility and PM2.5 Trends

• Objectives
• Establish baseline visibility and PM2.5 for Class
  I areas and compare to urban and rural sites
• Characterize species contributions to PM2.5 mass
• Evaluate source area influences to PM2.5 mass
• Identify sources of primary and secondary organic
  carbon
• Responsibilities States, Air Resource
  Specialists, Desert Research Institute, Woods
  Hole Laboratory

5
Visibility and PM2.5 Trends

• Deliverables
• Analyze IMPROVE, SEARCH, STN data May 2003,
  update Aug 04, July 05
• Identify areas of influence May 2003, update
  2005
• Continuous monitoring S, N, C Feb 03 - Dec
  04
• Great Smoky Mtn, TN Cape Romain, SC Millbrook,
  NC
• Draft Site Reports Jun 05
• Carbon Source Attribution and Carbon Dating Dec
  05
• Sampling completed May 2005
• Sample analysis underway

6
Conceptual Description

• Objectives
• Describe current air quality, emissions,
  meteorology, areas of influence
• Responsibilities States, Staff, ARS, SAI, BAMS
• Deliverables
• Visibility and PM2.5 Trends - May 03 and annually
• Meteorological Description for each Class I area-
  Apr 2005
• Report specific to each Class I area 2005/2006

7
Defining Natural Background Visibility and
Reasonable Progress Goals

• Objectives
• Evaluate alternative assumptions to EPA default
  guidance
• Define reasonable progress by 2018
• compare to modeled progress for OTW and control
  strategies
• Responsibilities Tombach, ARS, States,
  Workgroups
• Deliverables
• Options and alternative assumptions Dec 2003,
  Dec 2004
• Compare initial 2018 OTW model results to EPA
  default assumptions for reasonable progress Apr
  2005
• Compare alternative assumptions Jun -Jul 2005

8
Characterize Meteorology

• Objective
• Characterize relationships between meteorology,
  PM2.5, visibility, for IMPROVE, STN, and SEARCH
  sites
• Apply CART to evaluate 2002 modeling year and
  select episodes for emission sensitivities
• Responsibility SAI, Staff
• Deliverables
• CART analyses for IMPROVE, STN, SEARCH sites
  Apr - Dec 04
• CART characterization and episode selection tool
  Sep 04
• Weight 2002 modeled days to represent 20 worst
  days in 2000-2003 Dec 04 Apr 05
• Select episodes in 2002 for emissions
  sensitivities Jul 05
• Revise CART analyses to include 2000-2004 Dec
  05

9
Emissions Inventories

• Objective
• Define emissions for regional haze and PM2.5
  modeling
• Responsibility Stella, MACTEC, Pechan
• Deliverables
• 2002 initial and revised inventory Aug 03 - Oct
  2004
• 2002 typical utility and fire inventory Nov
  2004
• 2009 and 2018 utility forecast Dec 2004
• 2018 initial and revised inventory Apr - Dec
  2004
• 2009 inventory Dec 2004
• Revised 2009 and 2018 utility forecast for 4 RPOs
  Jul 05
• Base F final 2002, 2002 typical, and 2018
  inventories Aug 05
• 2018 control strategy inventories Oct 05 Mar
  06

10
Emissions Sensitivity Modeling

• Objective
• Evaluate air quality responses to modeled
  emissions changes to inform emissions strategy
  design
• Responsibilities Georgia Tech
• Deliverables
• Using initial 2018 inventory and Jul 01 and Jan
  02 episodes, evaluate air quality responses in
  2018 to emissions changes by pollutant, source
  sector, state Aug - Dec 04
• Using 2009 and revised 2018 inventories and
  Jun-Jul 02 and Nov-Dec 02 episodes, evaluate air
  quality responses in 2009 and 2018 to emissions
  changes Aug - Dec 05

11
Designing Emissions Strategies

• Objective
• Define expected emissions controls by 2018 and
  additional control strategies to be modeled for
  2018
• Responsibilities Planning Workgroup
• Deliverables
• Define 2018 Base 1 and Base 2 Jan 04, revised
  Sep 04
• Define 2018 Emissions Sensitivities Mar - Nov
  2004
• Define 2018 Emissions Control Strategies Dec 04
  - Dec 05
• Interpret model results ongoing 2004 - 2006

12
Meteorological Modeling

• Objective
• Using MM5 model, accurately represent
  meteorological conditions in 2002 for emissions
  and air quality modeling
• Responsibilities Baron Advanced Meteorological
  Systems
• Deliverables COMPLETE
• Recommend met model configuration and protocol
  Feb 04
• Evaluate 2002 met model performance Mar 04
• Deliver met files for emissions and air quality
  models Mar 04
• Final report 2002 met modeling Oct 04
• Additional 2002 met evaluation to support SIPs
  Apr 05

13
Emissions Modeling

• Objective
• Using SMOKE model, prepare inventories for air
  quality model, temporal and spatial allocation
• Responsibilities Alpine Geophysics
• Deliverables SMOKE emissions files for
• Initial 2002, 2002 typical, 2018 May - Jun 2004
• Revised 2002, 2002 typical, 2018, 2009 Oct 04
  Jan 05
• Develop temporal profiles
• Where data available, model fires as point
  sources
• Final 2002, 2002 typical, 2018 Aug 05
• 2018 emissions control strategies Nov 05 - Apr
  06

14
Air Quality Modeling

• Objectives
• Accurately represent air quality using CMAQ model
  
• Evaluate benefits from future year OTW and
  emissions controls
• Responsibilities ENVIRON, UC R, Alpine
  Geophysics
• Deliverables
• Model configuration, protocol, and QAPP Mar -
  Nov 2004
• Model performance evaluation initial 2002
  inventory Aug 04
• Model performance evaluation revised 2002
  inventory and modified SOA module Nov 04 Feb
  05
• 2002 typical, 2009, and 2018 - initial reasonable
  progress evaluation Apr Jul 05
• Base F final 2002, 2002 typical and 2018
  inventories Sep 05
• Model 2018 control strategy inventories Dec 05
  Jun 06

15
GEOS-CHEM Global Chemical Model

• Objectives
• Establish boundary conditions for CMAQ 2002
  annual run
• Evaluate contributions from non-US emissions
  sources to PM2.5 concentrations in US
• Responsibilities Harvard University, Univ.
  Houston
• Deliverables
• 2002 GEOS-CHEM annual model run Aug 2004
• 2002 CMAQ Boundary Conditions Nov 2004
• Non-US emissions contributions Mar 05
• Comparison to 2001 results for EPRI Jul 05
• Quality assure boundary conditions Aug 05

16
Identify Sources and Control Options for Best
Available Retrofit Technology (BART)

• Objective
• Define BART-eligible sources for purposes of
  PM2.5 and regional haze modeling
• Responsibilities States, Stella, MACTEC,
  sources
• Deliverables
• States list potential eligible sources Sep 04
  Feb 05
• Control options for eligible BART sources Oct
  04
• EPA final BART guidance Jun 05
• Dialog with industries ongoing 2005 2006
• Revised list of BART eligible sources Dec 05

17
BART Source Impacts

• Objectives
• Define sources subject to BART
• Define visibility improvements from BART controls
• Responsibilities States, sources, Tombach, Earth
  Tech
• Deliverables
• Draft BART modeling protocol Mar 05
• Earth Tech selected for CALPUFF modeling May 05
• Revised BART modeling protocol Aug - Oct 05
• BART exemption modeling Nov 05 - Feb 06
• Model visibility improvements from BART controls
  Jan - Jun 06

18
CALPUFF Training

• Objective
• Provide beginning and advanced CALPUFF training
  to state modelers for application to BART
  modeling demonstrations
• Provide overview of CALPUFF for state staff and
  managers that will be reviewing CALPUFF model
  results
• Responsibilities MACTEC, Earth Tech
• Deliverables
• Beginning CALPUFF training by MACTEC Jul 2005
• CALPUFF overview by Earth Tech Sep 2005
• Advanced CALPUFF training by Earth Tech Oct
  2005

19
BART Control Evaluations

• Objective
• Define BART emissions limits, considering
• Visibility improvements, costs, existing
  controls, energy and non-air environmental
  impacts, facility useful life
• Responsibilities States, sources, Stella,
  MACTEC, others?
• Deliverables
• Evaluate control options Jan - Sep 05
• Dialog with facilities 2005 - 2006
• States define BART controls in State
  Implementation Plans 2006 - 2007

20
Economic Analyses

• Objective
• Evaluate costs and benefits of emission control
  options
• Collaborate with other RPOs
• Responsibilities States, Stella (rfp),
  workgroupgs
• Deliverables
• Define specific objectives, work scope, and
  request proposals Jul 05
• Release RFP and select contractor Oct 05 - Jan
  06
• Deliver costs and benefits of control options
  Mar-Jun 06

21
Observations, Conclusions, Recommendations

• Objectives
• Interpret technical analyses for policy
  application
• Recommend control options to meet reasonable
  progress goal in 2018 at VISTAS Class I areas
• Responsibilities Planning and Technical Analysis
  Workgroups
• Deliverables
• Develop observations and conclusions from VISTAS
  technical analyses Apr 05 Jun 06
• Make recommendations to states Aug 05 Aug 06

22
Developing State Implementation Plans for
Regional Haze Rule

• Objectives
• Consult with VISTAS States, EPA, FLM, VISTAS
  stakeholders, other RPOs, other States, public
• Meet requirements for state implementation plans
• Define current and natural visibility and
  reasonable progress goals by 2018
• Define emissions inventories and BART sources
• Define emissions strategies to achieve reasonable
  progress by 2018
• Document supporting technical and modeling
  analyses
• Responsibilities States, staff