Arizona Tourism Barometer

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Arizona Tourism Barometer
Bank One Economic Outlook Center W.P. Carey
School of Business Arizona State
University October 2003
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Previous Arizona Barometers

• M.E. Bond and Bill McDonald (BBER, 1978)
• Quarterly
• Parks, private facilities, vehicle counts from
  agricultural inspection stations, airport
  passenger counts
• Timothy Hogan and Tom Rex (BBER, 1984)
• County-specific model
• One-time detailed survey about mode of travel,
  length of stay and amount spent

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Components of the Arizona Tourism Barometer
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Air Carrier Landings

• Highly correlated with passenger traffic, but
  more accurate because its collected by air
  traffic controllers.
• Covers all of Arizona, not just the two major
  airports that report passenger traffic.
• Seasonally adjusted by the Bank One Economic
  Outlook Center.

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National Park Visitation

• There are 21 national parks, recreation areas and
  wildlife refuges in Arizona.
• In June 2003, Arizona national parks were visited
  over 1.5 million times.
• Seasonally adjusted by the Bank One Economic
  Outlook Center.

Source National Park Service
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Hotel and Motel Retail Sales

• To provide a dollar perspective.
• Business travelers are included.
• Deflated into real terms with the CPI.

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Top Destinations for Overseas Travelers

• California
• Florida
• New York
• Hawaii
• Nevada
• Massachusetts
• Illinois
• Texas
• New Jersey
• Arizona

Source OTTI, data from 2000
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International Arrivals
Raw data is collected and seasonally adjusted by
the Bank One Economic Outlook Center
Source Bureau of Immigration and Customs
Enforcement
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Creation of the Barometer

• Fairly typical method for creating an index.
• All components are seasonally adjusted, deflated,
  and smoothed with a moving average as necessary.
• All components are weighted equally.
• The log differences from month to month movements
  are taken and summed to create the monthly
  changes in the index.
• June 1994 is set as 100 and the barometer then
  moves up and down from there. This month was
  chosen as it was a time when fairly little
  movement was seen in the components.

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Historical Behavior of the Barometer
Asian financial crisis 1997-1998
Recession 2001
War in Iraq Spring 2003
Terrorist attacks Sept. 2001
Phoenix Sky Harbor runway construction Spring
1993
Source Bank One Economic Outlook Center
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http//wpcarey.asu.edu/seid/eoc/atb