State of the Region Orana

1
State of the RegionOrana

• By the
• Western Research Institute
• 2nd September 2005

2
Outline

• International Scene
• National Scene
• The Regions
• Orana Analysis
• Orana Business Survey
• Skilled Workers
• Overall Assessment

3
International Scene

• World Economic Growth
• 4.6 2004
• 3.7 2005
• 3.5 2010
• Demand for Commodities China
• Risks
• ? USD
• Slowdown China
• Higher Oil prices

4
Oil Prices

• Forty years of known reserves
• Nine years for Australia
• One elephant in Caspian Sea in fifty years
• Petrol/Diesel prices higher
• Ethanol/Biodiesel?

5
National Scene

• Australian economic growth 3.0 - 3.3
• AUD high-commodities prices/expected to ease to
  65-70 cents
• Australia US Free Trade Agreement-
  complementarity
• Large CAD
• Skill shortages
• Infrastructure

6
Australian Petroleum Industry Trade Deficit
7
Infrastructure

• 1970s to early 80s Government capital
  expenditure 7.2 of GDP
• 2003-04 3.6 of GDP
• Roads 22 in 1960s now 10
• 1 increase in infrastructure spending increases
  output by 0.17 and 0.39

8
Infrastructure Superannuation Funds

• 1988 95bn or 21 of GDP
• 2004 628bn or 80 of GDP
• 9bn infrastructure projects on stock exchange
• Public Private Partnership

9
The Regions
10
Regional Issues

• Wealth effect falling home prices not strong
• High petrol prices
• Consumption softer
• Gold rush effect
• Access to super funds and proceeds from Telstra
  sale

11
Alexander Graham Bell
Communications Transport
1847-1922
Source http//campus.northpark.edu/history/WebChr
on/Technology/AGBell.html
The first words spoken into a telephone
were Watson, come here, I want you. Created
and saved a trip.
12
Orana Key Statistics
13
Orana Shift Share Analysis

• Outperforming sectors
• Wholesale trade
• Government Admin
• Manufacturing
• Take away foods
• Retailing nec
• Bread and cake

14
Orana Key Sectors

• Backwards and forward linkages width and depth
• Retail, hospitality, recreation and personal
  services
• Transport and wood manufacturing
• Under-performing transport, wood manufacturing
• Out-performing retail

15
Orana Sales Performance
16
Sales Performance by Location
17
Sales Performance by Sector
18
Skill Shortages by Industry
19
Conclusion

• Important part of Australian economy
• Infrastructure important
• Superannuation funds large
• Skills an issue in the region
• Some interesting structural issues