State of the Region Orana

1
State of the Region Orana

• Prepared by the
• Western Research Institute
• 17th September 2004

2
Outline

• Contribute to exports
• Regional Economy
• National Retail Industry
• Regional Retail Sector
• Key drivers and success factors
• Retail Outlook
• General Economic Outlook
• CSU graduates and skill shortages

3
Contribute to Exports
4
National and Regional
Source Australian Bureau of Statistics
5
Orana Shift Share Analysis

• Analysed job growth 1996 2001
• Sectors growing above state and industry averages
• Outperformed in Orana
• -Wholesale Trade 15
• -Government Admin 13
• -Manufacturing 8

6
Sales Performance

• Source Regional Business Survey sponsored by the
  Central Western Regional Development Board and
  Country Energy

7
Regional Comparison

• Source Regional Business Survey sponsored by the
  Central Western Regional Development Board and
  Country Energy

8
Sector Comparison

• Source December quarter Regional Business Survey
  sponsored by the Central Western Regional
  Development Board and Country Energy

9
Significance of Retail
Sources ABS and WRI Input Output Table
10
Retail Employment Profile

• 12 of Australian workforce.
• 60 female
• 50 of all young people with a job work in retail
• Two-thirds are casual / part-time
• 25 of employment flow-on effects captured by
  retail

• Source Retail Industry Profile prepared by the
  Australian Retailers Association

11
Retail Sales Performance

• Source Regional Retail Survey sponsored by
  Reliance Credit Union

12
Regional Comparison

• Source Regional Retail Survey sponsored by
  Reliance Credit Union

13
Sector Comparison

• Source Regional Retail Survey sponsored by
  Reliance Credit Union

14
Retail Shift Share

• Take away food 12
• Retailing nec 13
• Bread and Cake retailing 17

15
Retail Outlook

• Retailer expectations slightly higher for
  September quarter of 2004
• Long run average sales 4
• MONASH 1.8 in 2004-05
• Higher AUD increases demand for imported cars,
  electronics, etc
• Increased competition for market share

16
Growth Outlook
Sources Business Review Weekly State of the
Nation 2004 and WRI Input-Output Table
17
General Economic Outlook

• Business expectations higher for September
  quarter of 2004
• Rebound in farm production
• Slowdown in housing market
• Strong domestic economy
• AUD forecasts 65.8c to 80c US
• Possibly higher interest rates
• Low inflation in RBA 2-3 range

18
CSU Graduates First Employment

• 75 had regional home location
• 58 initially employed in regional location
• 71 with a regional home location employed in
  regional location
• 18 with metro home location employed in regional
  location

19
Results Dubbo Region

• 48 home location in Dubbo employed in Dubbo
• Orange/ Cowra/ Parkes/ Forbes 44 in Orange and
  39 in Cowra/ Parkes/ Forbes

20
Percentage of students from regional and
metropolitan areas employed in the regions -
1995-2002
21
Conclusion

• Important part of Australian economy
• Orana affected by drought worse than most but
  still robust
• Small businesses including retail important part
  of economy
• Economy thickening with CSU graduates playing role