League of Conservation Voters

1
League of Conservation Voters Education
Fund Survey of Hispanic Voters in Arizona,
Colorado and New Mexico
An analysis of voter attitudes Prepared
By Ridder/Braden, Inc. February 15, 2002
2
Methodology

• The survey consists of 752 interviews with
  registered voters across the state.
• To qualify for the poll, voters had to say they
  were certain to, very likely to, or possibly
  going to vote in the 2002 elections.
• The margin of error for the survey is /- 3.57,
  and is somewhat higher for subgroups of analysis.
  The margin of error for results within each
  state is /- 6.2
• The survey was conducted January 29-February 5,
  2002

3
Jobs/Economy is the Dominant Issue
4
In the aftermath of September 11th, do you have
more, or less, faith in the U.S. government in
dealing with issues here at home?
September 11 has Renewed Faith in Government
Those who have gained the most faith in the
governments handling of domestic issues
include -- Voters 65 (67) -- Repubs (76)
-- Unaffs (74) -- Income 30k-50k (68)
16
44
63
5
Thinking specifically about (Arizona/Colorado/New
Mexico) what, if any, conservation or
environmental concerns do you worry about the
most?
Water and Air Quality Top Environmental Concerns
6
Neighbors Ranked Most Trustworthy
On a scale of 1-5, with 5 being very trustworthy
and 1 being not trustworthy at all, please tell
me your impression of each group.
7
Levels of Trust Vary from State to State, and
among the Different DemographicsNumbers indicate
percent who responded with a 5 for very
trustworthy. Those in bold are the highest
responses for each question.
8
Overall
Voters Evenly Split Over Deterioration of the
Environment
Overall in the last 5 years, do you think the
natural environment, including the quality of air
and water, and conservation of public land has
gotten much better, somewhat better, stayed the
same, somewhat worse or much worst?
Voters in New Mexico are more pessimistic about
their environmental situation.
AZ
CO
NM
9
Voters Favor Enforcement of Current Laws
73 of voters favor either adding new laws or
more stringently enforcing current laws. This
clearly indicates a desire for stronger
environmental protection policies.
10
Voters believe State LegislatureFavors Industry

• Hispanic voters clearly believe that the
  environment loses out to industry at the State
  Capitol. This factor, combined with their desire
  to have new environmental laws or at least
  increase enforcement of the current laws, show
  that Hispanic voters will be receptive to
  candidates who include an environmental
  protection message.
• Those who are most likely to say industry
  include
• Arizona (75)
• Age 45-54 (78)
• Unaffiliated voters (78)

11
Voters Equally Split on Environmental Justice

• Some people say that the State should be
  required to take ethnicity and income into
  account when deciding where to locate dump sites
  for trash and toxic waste. Others say it should
  be done solely on the basis of the best site
  available regardless of the ethnicity and income
  of the neighborhood. Which do you agree with?

46
47
Older and lower income voters are the most likely
to support taking income and ethnicity into
account.
12
Voters do not believe we must choose between the
environment and the economy
Agreement that we can have both decreases
directly in proportion with the age of the voter.
75 of those 18-34 agree, while only 59 of
those 65 feel similarly.
13
Voters Respond to Specific Messages
We asked a battery of questions to help determine
what messages would be most effective in
convincing voters to support stronger
environmental protection.
We owe it to our children and grandchildren to
preserve our community by being good stewards of
our environment. They deserve a future wit the
same quality of life that we enjoy today.
Being close to nature and open space is an
important part of our life. We must do
everything we can to maintain our unique quality
of life.
Traffic is not only an environmental issue, it
affects how we live our lives, reduces the amount
of time we can spend with our families, and it
diminishes our quality of life. We must act now
to begin to address the problems it causes.
Nothing is more important to our future than the
availability of an adequate water supply. We
must protect our water even if it means placing
restrictions on corporations.
The recent increase in the rates of asthma and
other respiratory diseases among children have
been attributed to pollutants in our air. We
must do everything we can to ensure that our
children live in a healthy environment and
breathe clean air.
14
Breakdown of Messages

• With 70 support, the strongest argument appeals
  to voters based on child illnesses. Not far
  behind was protecting the water supply.
• It is important to note that every argument fared
  much better among lower income voters. There is
  a very strong economic division over increasing
  environmental regulations.
• Most arguments, including the top 2, were also
  more convincing to older voters than younger
  voters. 78 of those over age 65 found the clean
  air argument to be very convincing, and 74 of
  seniors found the water supply argument very
  convincing.
• The future water supply argument was less
  partisan, as 60 of Republican voters found it
  very convincing, compared to 57 of Republicans
  who felt similarly about the clean air argument.

15
Environmental Candidate Preferred Over
Industry CandidateWhen given the option
between supporting a candidate for public office
who would protect the environment and support
strong enforcement of environmental laws over a
candidate who would support efforts to relieve
the burden of those laws on business, Hispanic
voters strongly favored the environmental
candidate.
Includes a sentence that candidate A has received
contributions from environmental groups while
Candidate B has received contributions from
polluters.
70
75
20
10
Split Sample B
Split Sample A
16
Environmental Issues are Important Voting
Considerations
How important are issues involving clean air,
clean water, and open space (Sample B
conservation and the environment) when deciding
how to vote?
Hispanic voters place a high priority on
environmental issues. In terms of language,
Split Sample A, which used real terms such as
clean air and water is more effective than Sample
B, which used the generic terms of environment
or conservation. These issues had their highest
level of support in Arizona (60), and lowest in
New Mexico (53). Democrats (58), women (60),
lower income (64) and age 55 (62) were most
likely to view environmental issues as a very
important factor in their voting decision.
17
Clean Air/Water Attracts Strongest Support
We tested three different possible statements an
elected official could make that advocated
environmental protection as well as the drawback
of each plan, and asked respondents if they would
be more or less likely to support an official who
made such a statement. Preserving clean air and
water was clearly the most effective message.
10
Our clean air and water is crucial to our
families health. We must take steps to preserve
these resources, even if it sacrifices must be
made in the process.
83
17
Our environment is becoming increasingly
polluted by the production of oil, gas, coal and
nuclear energy. We should promote and produce
clean electric sources such as solar or wind
power even if it costs a little more each month.
75
31
It is crucial for this generation and future
generations that we set aside open space and
protect it from development, even if that reduces
the availability of affordable housing.
61
18
Coloradoans Narrowly Favor Additional Public
Transportation Over Expanded RoadsHere in
Colorado, we are facing touch choices with out
States budget. If a choice must be made, do you
think it is more important to spend
transportation money on expanding and improving
our roads and highways, or making public
transportation more accessible and affordable?
52
44
Those most likely to favor public transportation
include age 65 (63), income over 50k (61),
and women (56).
19
How Do Results Compare to Previous LCVEF Surveys?

• Analysis of Hispanic voters as compared to the
  general voting population

20
Differences on the Issues

• In comparing Hispanic voters with the general
  voting population, the first thing to understand
  is that there are clear differences in issue
  priorities
• Hispanic voters are much more concerned about the
  economy, Social Security, and Health Care than
  the general voting population.
• Having said that, Hispanic voters views on the
  importance of environmental issues (clean air and
  water, sprawl) were almost exactly the same as
  general voters views.
• Hispanics are less concerned about open space,
  and more focused on clean air, clean water, and
  development.

21
Similar View of Environmental Laws

• When asked which statement comes closest to their
  view (more laws, stricter enforcement of current
  laws, leave laws alone, or relax current laws),
  Hispanic voters responses are very similar to
  the general voting population, although they are
  slightly more favorable to enacting tougher laws.

22
Hispanic Voters More Likely to Choose Economy
Over Environment
Colorado
New Mexico
23
Hispanic Voters Slightly Stronger in Support of
Environmental Candidate
Colorado
New Mexico
24
Environmental Issues Rated Higher by Hispanic
Voters
How important are issues involving clean air,
clean water, and open space (conservation and the
environment) for you in deciding how to vote?
54 of Hispanic voters in Colorado and New
Mexico, on average, said that these issues were
very important. Only 38 of overall voters felt
similarly. The difference seems to be one of
intensity when voters who said these concerns
were somewhat important the gap between
Hispanic voters and the overall voting public
disappears.
25
What Issues Motivate Hispanic Voters?

• Hispanic voters are very different from the
  general voting population in many ways, not just
  on environmental issues. Economic and
  educational issues are generally at the forefront
  of any political messaging, and this should
  always be considered when developing a message.
• This poll shows that, used correctly,
  environmental issues can have a big impact on
  Hispanic voters note the high percentage who
  rate clean air and water as very important in
  their voting decision and the huge majority who
  support Candidate A.
• In particular, the following messages and/or
  arguments will be effective at motivating voters
  within the Hispanic community
• I. Clean Air and Water
• II. Children and The Future
• III. Us against Them

26
Clean Air and Water

• When we asked Hispanic voters to rate how
  concerned they are about various issues, we
  included six environment-related issues clean
  air and water, sprawl and over-development, the
  availability of future water supplies, protecting
  open space, dependence on foreign oil, and
  increased drilling for oil in their state.
• The top two responses, by far, were the
  availability of future water supplies (mean of
  8.2) and clean air and water (mean of 7.9). No
  other environmental issue scored above a mean of
  7.5.

27
II. Children and The Future

• Any question we tested which included the words
  children, family or future tested extremely
  well. Hispanics traditionally value strong
  families, and this cultural attitude can play an
  important role in how we phrase our messages and
  arguments.
• No matter what environmental issue is being
  discussed, it will be more effective if it is
  phrased in terms of its affect on the future,
  particularly on how it impacts children.
  Hispanic voters are clearly anxious about the
  future and hope to provide a better life for
  their children.

28
II. Children and The Future

• First, it is important to understand what
  Hispanic voters are concerned about when the
  subject is sprawl and development. Contrary to
  attitudes of the general voting public, this is
  not about open space or overdeveloped
  neighborhoods.
• Rather, it is about overcrowded classrooms (38)
  and reduced future water supplies (19).
• Again, those issues that affect the children and
  the future rise to the top of the importance
  chart.

29
III. Us Against Them

• One of the key demographic correlations that
  frequently emerged was the lower the income, the
  stronger the support for environmental
  regulations.
• The other side of this coin is that Hispanic
  voters are much more likely than general voters
  to favor the economy over the environment. The
  distinction, compared to many upper-income and
  Caucasian voters, is that Hispanics are not
  opposed to regulation in fact they would
  generally be pre-disposed to favor environmental
  regulations. They are worried about the
  trickle-down affect of regulations taking jobs
  out of the community.

30
III. Us Against Them

• The way to walk down the middle of this road is
  traditional us against them class warfare.
  Hispanic voters will strongly respond to
  arguments that industry is hurting the little
  guy or taking advantage of lax regulations to
  make huge profits while leaving a polluted
  environment for future generations.
• These attitudes make it crucial for environmental
  supporters to prove the case that environmental
  regulations will not hurt the economy. While
  additional laws may hurt big corporations and
  special interests, they will not result in job
  losses. If anti-environmental concerns can
  convince Hispanic voters that regulations will
  mean lost jobs, they will have the upper hand in
  the debate.

31
Conclusions

• The first and most important lesson this survey
  has taught us is Environmental messages play an
  important role in Hispanics voting decisions.
• While the economy and education are of paramount
  concern, specific environmental issues
  (particularly clean air and safe water) are
  important voting motivators.

32
Conclusions

• Breaking down environmental issues within the
  Hispanic community shows slightly different
  priorities than the general voting public. They
  are more likely to be concerned about overcrowded
  classrooms, the availability and safety of water,
  and clean air.
• Using sprawl and open space will not be effective
  in communicating with Hispanic voters.

33
Conclusions

• Key words and phrases that will increase the
  effectiveness of any communication with Hispanic
  voters include
• Clean air and safe water,
• Future water supplies,
• Family, children, the future.

• The strongest argument for increased
  environmental regulations is the health of the
  children. The more this debate can be framed as
  one of protecting future generations, the more
  effective it will be.

34
Conclusions

• When targeting Hispanic voters, there are
  important demographic distinctions to consider
• The lower the income, the stronger their support
  for environmental regulations. This is
  consistent through every question on the survey.
• Older voters, while the most likely to favor the
  economy over the environment, are also the most
  receptive to our arguments. Younger voters
  (18-34) tend to start out favoring the
  environment, while older voters seem to be
  swing voters. They place a high voting
  priority on environmental issues, but need to be
  convinced that increased regulation is the right
  thing to do.

35
Conclusions

• Environmental issues will clearly be an important
  factor in the 2002 elections in Arizona,
  Colorado, and New Mexico. Candidates,
  organizations, and political parties who
  intelligently communicate environmental issues to
  the Hispanic community will see a big payoff.
  Hispanic voters place a high priority on
  environmental issues, respond favorably to
  arguments in favor of environmental causes, and
  are determined to leave a cleaner, safer
  environment for future generations.