Measurements and Models of the Atmospheric ArN2 ratio

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Where has all the Carbon Gone?Atmospheric
oxygen, carbon fluxes and the implications for
climate change.

• Mark Battle (Bowdoin College)
• Michael Bender (Princeton)
• Ralph Keeling (Scripps Institute of Oceanography)
  
• Pieter Tans (NOAA/CMDL)
• Jesse Bastide, Carrie Simonds, Blake Sturtevant,
  Becca Perry

Bates College, 12/3/2004
Funding from NSF, EPA, NOAA GCRP, BP-Amoco,
Bowdoin College
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Organizing Principle
1 topic superficially
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Organizing Principle
1 topic superficially
Several topics with vanishing content
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Outline

• Context
• Climate Change
• CO2 as an agent of change
• Where does the CO2 go?
• How does O2 tell us this?
• The basic answer
• A more refined answer
• Related work in progress

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Why should we care about climate change?

• An increasing body of observations gives a
  collective picture of a warming world
• most of the warming observed over the last 50
  years is attributable to human activities.
• Anthropogenic climate change will persist for
  many centuries.
• Emissions of greenhouse gases continue to alter
  the atmosphere in ways that are expected to
  affect the climate.

IPCC, 2001
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Why CO2?
IPCC, 2001
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Why CO2?

• The atmospheric concentration of CO2 has
  increased by 31 since 1750. The present CO2
  concentration has not been exceeded during the
  past 420,000 years and likely not during the past
  20 million years. The current rate of increase is
  unprecedented during at least the past 20,000
  years.

IPCC, 2001
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Where does anthropogenic CO2 end up?
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Recap

• The planet is warming
• Human activities are to blame
• CO2 is the primary culprit
• Future buildup depends on Atm vs. Land vs. Ocean
• Land/Ocean partition is tough to measure

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The link between O2 and CO2
?CO2 Land biota Industry Ocean DO2 Land
biota Industry
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O2/N2 changes are small
?O2/N2 per meg ? (O2/N2sa O2/N2st)/(O2/N2st)
x106 1 per meg 0.0001 1 GtC 109 metric
tons C 1015 g C 1 GtC from FF ? 3.2 per meg
?O2/N2
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Graphically
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Graphically
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Graphically
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Graphically
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Graphically
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The Princeton cooperative flask sampling network
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Ships of opportunity
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Research Vessels
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Automatic Air Recovery Device Version ARK-5
In use at Cape Grim Kaimimoana Samoa Barrow Sab
le Macquarie Princeton
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Our measurement technique

• IRMS (Finnigan DeltaXL) 32/28 and 40/28 (as well
  as 44/28 and 29/28)
• Custom dual-inlet system
• Indirect comparison with standards

For more details Bender et al., In review
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Battle et al., Science 2000
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1991 1997 Land sink 1.4 0.8 GtC/yr Ocean
sink 2.0 0.6 GtC/yr
Battle et al. Science 2000 (2467-2470)
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Is it really that simple?
Heat
Biology
DO2 Land biota Industry Ocean DCO2 Land
biota Industry Ocean
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Longer records from more sites
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Longer records from more sitesSolubility
correctionStratification correction?Ocean
uptake 1.7 0.5Net Land uptake 1.0
0.6(1994 2002)Bender et al. In review
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Summary

• The climate is changing
• Anthropogenic CO2 is to blame
• O2 can tell us about the fate of CO2
• The O2-CO2 linkage isnt trivial
• We find a substantial terrestrial sink (volatile?)

But the story doesnt end here
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Measurements of O2 and CO2
DO2 Land biota Industry DCO2 Land biota
Industry Ocean
fland focean gt 0 for carbon storage by land and
ocean
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Measurements of O2 and CO2
DO2 Land biota Industry DCO2 Land biota
Industry Ocean
fland focean gt 0 for carbon storage by land and
ocean
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Determining the O2CO2 stoichiometry for theland
biota
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What else might we learn?
DO2 Land biota Industry DCO2 Land biota
Industry Ocean
fland focean gt 0 for carbon storage by land and
ocean
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APO an ocean-only tracer

• APO ? O2observed 1.1 CO2observed
• (I have ignored units)

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APO an ocean-only tracer

• APO ? O2observed 1.1 CO2observed
• (I have ignored units)

So what?
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Ocean biology and circulation
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Ocean biology and circulation
fluxes of CO2 and O2
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Ocean biology and circulation
fluxes of CO2 and O2
atmospheric transport
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Ocean biology and circulation
fluxes of CO2 and O2
atmospheric transport
atmospheric composition at observing stations
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fluxes of CO2 and O2
atmospheric transport
atmospheric composition at observing stations
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APO measurements good flux estimates ? rigorous
test of atmospheric transport
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Is this different from other models?