Introduction to the EnergyPLAN model

1
Introduction to the EnergyPLAN model
Aalborg University, September October
2005PhD-course Energy System Analysis I

• Henrik Lund
• Aalborg University
• Denmark

2
Content Workshop aproach!!Development
aproach..!!

• 1. (23 August) Introduction to studies made by
  the use of EnergyPLAN. Discussion of participants
  ideas of PhD projects and potential use of the
  model.
• 2. (30 August) Details inside the model. How
  does it work? How are the modelling of specific
  components, units etc? Discussion of
  PhD-projects Strengths and weakness of the
  model?
• The period between 23 August and 5 September
  Participants install the model and make familiar
  with the model and make som preliminary analyses.
• 3. (6 September) Discussion of participants
  analyses. Results, problems, room for
  improvements of the model!!! Etc..

3
www.plan.aau.dk/lund

• Download EnergyPLAN
• Download documentation
• Links to journal articles (results)
• Links to research reports (Danish)

4
Content

• 1. The EnergyPLAN model
• 2. Data and Methodologies
• 3. Example Technical Analysis
• 4. Example Market Economical Analysis

5
Electricity Excess Production
Demand
Excess
6
Reference excess production
7
The EnergyPLAN Model

• Energy System Analysis Model
• - ExcelVisual BasicDelphi Pascal
• - Main focus Compare different regulation
  systems ability to integrate and trade RES (Wind)
• - Simplified modelling of energy system.

8
Windows program
9
EnergyPLAN Model 6.0
Input
Output
Distribution Data
Demands Fixed electricity Flexible electricity
District Heating
Market Prices
Electricity
District H.
Wind

• Results
• (Annual, monthly and hour by hour values)
• Heat productions
• Electricity production
• Electricity import export
• Forced electricity surplus production
• Fuel consumption
• Payments from import/export
• CO2 emissions
• Share of RES

Solar
Industrial CHP
Photo Voltaic
RES Wind and PV Capacities (MW) Distribution
Factor Solar Thermal and CSHP (TWh/year)

• Regulation strategy
• 1. Meeting heat demand
• 2. Meeting both heat and electricity demand
• Electricity Market Strategy
• Import/export optimisation
• Critical surplus production
• reducing wind,
• replacing CHP with boiler or heat pump
• Electric heating and/or Bypass

Capacities Efficiencies CHP, Power plant, Heat
Pump, Boiler Heat Storage
Regulation Market prises Multiplication
factor Addition factor Depend factor Marginal
production Cost (Import, export) Stabilisation
demands
Fuel Types of fuel CO2 emission factors Fuel
prices
10
Results
11
EnergyPLAN model
12
Energy System
Import Export
Wind Power
Photo Voltaic
Electricity Demand
Power Plant
Transport Flexible
CHP unit CSHP unit
Heat Pump
Fuel
Heat Demand
Boiler DH-boiler
Heat Storage
Solar Thermal
13
Energy System 6.2
Water Storage
Wind Power
Import Export
Photo Voltaic
Turbine
Pump
Wave Energy
Electricity Demand
Power Plant
Transport Flexible
Electro- lyser
Heat Pump
CHP unit CSHP unit
Fuel
Heat Demand
Heat Storage
Boiler DH-boiler
Solar Thermal
14
DESIRE project

• Will include
• Nuclear power..
• Hydro Power

15
Content

• 1. The EnergyPLAN model
• 2. Data and Methodologies
• 3. Example Technical Analysis
• 4. Example Market Economical Analysis

16
Methodology

• Inputs
• Reference energy system (Danish CHP)
• Different share of different RES
• Results
• Rate of excess electricity production
• Ability to decrease CO2 emission
• Ability to exploit exchange on external
  electricity markets

17
Example of Results
18
Wind energy

• Input
• Data from total productions of wind turbines in
  the TSO Eltra area (West Denmark).

19
Wind power
20
Photo voltaic

• Data from the Danish Sol300 project (Total 267
  installations, app. 100 included in the data base
• Additional synthetic data from Test Reference
  Year

21
Photo Voltaic
22
Wave Power

• Calculated from measurements of Wave height and
  periods in the North Sea
• 5 percent efficiency
• Max installed capacity

23
Photo Voltaic
24
Comparison of results
25
Content

• 1. The EnergyPLAN model
• 2. Data and Methodologies
• 3. Example Technical Analysis
• 4. Example Market Economical Analysis

26
Electricity Excess Production
Demand
Excess
27
Reference excess production
28
ReferenceÅr 2030
29
Different Energy Systems
30
Electricity Balance and Grid Stability
Active Components
Non Active Components
Demand
Centralised CHP and Power Plants
RES (Renewable Energy Sources)
DG (Distributed Generation)
31
System 1Activating DG CHP-units
Active Components
Non Active Components
Centralised CHP and Power Plants
Demand
DG (Distributed Generation)
RES (Renewable Energy Sources)
32
System 2 CHP-units and Heat Pumps
Active Components
Non Active Components
Centralised CHP and Power Plants
Demand
DG (Distributed Generation)
Heat Pumps
RES (Renewable Energy Sources)
33
System 3 Activating RES via additional demand
Active Components
Non Active Components
Centralised CHP and Power Plants
Demand
DG (Distributed Generation)
Heat Pumps
RES (Renewable Energy Sources)
Wind Power
Electricity for Transport
34
Principle results of technical analyses
35
Excess Electricity 8,4 TWh
Danish Reference 2020
Wind Power
17,7 TWh
Electricity Demand 41,1 TWh
41,1 TWh
31,8 TWh
CHP and Power plants
Coal 26.5 TWh
Fuel Total 200,3 TWh
92,3 TWh
Oil 70,9 TWh
39,2 TWh
District Heating Grid loss 25
31,9 TWh
Heat Demand 62,9 TWh
31,0 TWh
Household Industry
39,9 TWh
Natural Gas 68,4 TWh
50,7 TWh
Transport 50,7 TWh
Biomass 34,5 TWh
17,4 TWh
Refinery Etc. 17,4 TWh
36
Danish Alternative 20?0
Transport (50,7 TWh) equvalent
62,3 TWh
17,8 TWh
Wind Power
37,0 TWh
Electricity Demand 37,0 TWh
Photo Voltaic
H2 Electrolyser
H2
14,7 TWh
CHP, HP and Power plants
Solar thermal 2,1 TWh
District Heating Grid loss 25
53,5 TWh
42,8 TWh
Heat Demand 56,8 TWh
Biomass 49,4 TWh
Fuel Total 49,4 TWh
31,4 TWh
14,0 TWh
18,0 TWh
Household Industry
37
Content

• 1. The EnergyPLAN model
• 2. Data and Methodologies
• 3. Example Technical Analysis
• 4. Example Market Economical Analysis

38
Modelling of NordPool

• - Standard system price hour by hour distribution
  (based on recent years)
• - Construction of Wet Dry and Normal years
  (Hydro in Norway)
• - Modelling of influence for DK trade and
  splitting in price areas due to bottle-neck in
  transmission
• - Modelling of influence from Trade on the German
  Boarder.

39
Reference regulation system(CO2 Price 100
DKK/t)
40
Wind Power Production Costs220 DKK/MWh
41
Different Production Costs and CO2 Prices
42
Feasibility of Alternative Regulation Systems
43
Feasibility of Alternative Regulation Systems
44
Conclusions

• If wind production exceeds 5 TWh (equal to 20)
  investments in CHP regulation and Heat Pumps are
  feasible.
• Such investments at the same time makes wind
  power more feasible. For production costs of 220
  DKK/MWh and CO2-prices of 100 DKK/t the
  feasibility of wind power raises from 6 TWh in
  the reference system to 11 TWh in the Heat Pump
  system.

45
Sensitivity Analysis

• Increase in Heat Pump Costs
• Variations in CO2 payment
• Change in Wind Power costs
• Change in fuel costs
• Change in CO2 influence on Nordpool
• Change in Nordpool average price
• Change in import/export to Germany
• Change in Nordpool price variations

46
Only small changes in the main results
47
Introduction to the EnergyPLAN model
Aalborg University, September October
2005PhD-course Energy System Analysis I

• Henrik Lund
• Aalborg University
• Denmark