Changing Demographics and Enrollment Trends

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Changing Demographics and Enrollment Trends

• Ken Esbenshade
• Associate Dean and Director of Academic Programs
• College of Agriculture and Life Sciences
• North Carolina State University

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Outline

• Demographic shifts of the US population during
  the past 100 years
• Patterns of student enrollment in secondary and
  post-secondary education
• Post-secondary enrollment trends in Agriculture
  and Animal Science
• Predictions of future trends
• Implications for academic programs in the
  agriculture disciplines

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Between 1900 and 2000, the mean center of US
population moved about 324 miles west and 101
miles south
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80 of the US population resides in a
metropolitan area
US population became predominantly metropolitan
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In 2000, more than 1/3 of the states had 75 or
more of their populations living in metropolitan
areas
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Age and Gender Distribution of US Population
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Median age rose from 23 in 1900 to 35 in 2000
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Since 1970, the population of races other than
White or Black has grown significantly
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The Hispanic population more than doubled in size
from 1980 to 2000
The Hispanic population includes people who may
be of any race.
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Age and Gender Distribution of the Total
Population by Hispanic Origin (2000)
In 1980 and 2000, Hispanics were much younger
than non-Hispanics.
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Average household size declined from 4.6 people
per household in 1900 to 2.6 in 2000
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Foreign-Born US Population
Year
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Percent Foreign Born by Region of Birth
Europe (22)
All other (10)
All other (10)
Europe (85)
Latin America (1)
Asia (1)
Asia (25)
Latin America (43)
1900
1990
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Eight of every 10 immigrants live in 10 States
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Summary of Demographic Changes in the United
States

• Population centers are moving South and West
• More people live in metropolitan areas
• The population is aging
• The population is becoming more diverse
• Percent of population that are immigrants has
  decreased
• Origin of immigrants has changed

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Number of High School Graduates and Students
Attending Higher Education
Numbers in Thousands
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Year
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Number of Degrees Awarded
Year
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Percentage of Bachelors Degrees Awarded by Gender
Percentage of bachelors degrees awarded to
females increased 107 between 1970 and 2000 and
to males by 18.
Year
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Bachelors Degrees Awarded
3 of total
34 of total
63 of total
Year
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Degrees Awarded in Agriculture and Natural
Resources
1.5 of Bachelor Degrees Awarded
1.7
1970
1980
2000
1990
Year
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Percentage of Degrees Awarded to Females and
Minorities in Agriculture and Natural Resources
Minorities
Females
Year
Year
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Degrees Awarded in 2003 by Program Area
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Percentage of Degrees Awarded in the Animal
Sciences by Gender (2003)
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Will the Changes in Demographics and College
Enrollment Continue?
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Projected Percentage Change in US Population
Between 2000 and 2050 by Age
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Projected Percentage Change in US Population
Between 2000 and 2050 by Race
American Indian Alaska Native, Native Hawaiian
Other Pacific Islander, and two or more races
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Projected Enrollment Increases in Higher
Education (2004-2015)

• Total Enrollment 15
• Gender
• Female 18
• Male 10
• Race/Ethnicity
• White 6
• Black 27
• Asian Pacific Islander 28
• American Indian Alaska Native 30
• Non-Resident Alien 34
• Hispanic 42

Source US Department of Education
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Implications
The Focus of Future Instruction Must

• Include learners of all ages, including the
  elderly (lifelong learning)
• Include more urbanites
• Include individuals from one- and two-person
  households
• Include more non-whites, particularly Hispanics
  Asian/Pacific Islanders
• Include more females

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The changes currently being observed in the shift
in US population will continue during the first
half of the 21st Century