John Harrison B.Sc. B.Ec. FCPA

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Facing the Sustainability Challenge Seminar11th
June 2008
Making the Right Decisions for the Long Term
John Harrison B.Sc. B.Ec. FCPA TecEco Managing
Director
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The Atmosphere
Source IPCC
The Challenge is to Keep the Atmosphere Stable.
To do this we must take a long term view and
engineer a new way for us to live.
Source Sam Nelson Greenbase
Even if the annual flow of emissions was frozen
today, the level of greenhouse gas in the
atmosphere would still reach double its
pre-industrial levels by 2050. In fact, emissions
are increasing rapidly and the level of 550 ppm
could be reached as early as 2035.
Source http//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth's_atmos
phere 17 Feb 08
Stern review Executive Summary Page 3 para 6
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CO2 in the Atmosphere
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Balancing CO2 in the Atmosphere

• The problem is fundamentally one of CO2 balance,
  not emissions
• There are two ways the CO2 in the atmosphere can
  be balanced
• By reducing emissions.
• By using (sequestering) at least as much carbon
  as we produce.
• Both strategies require
• technological change on a scale never before
  imagined.
• A high long term high price for carbon to drive
  investment that will result in this change.

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Where are we?

• The Kyoto Protocol
• A treaty intended to implement the objectives and
  principles agreed in the 1992 UN Framework
  Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
• Requires governments to agree to quantified
  limits on their greenhouse gas emissions, through
  sequential rounds of negotiations for successive
  commitment periods.
• The Kyoto treaty is the result of political
  negotiation and diplomatic compromise and on the
  surface not a lot more than short term promises
  to reduce emissions that make politicians look
  good, but that their successors cannot possibly
  keep.
• The Kyoto treaty is not a viable strategy for
  survival in the future - A treaty agreeing to a
  long term plan is required.
• Constraint
• With lots of silly targets with no strategy for
  their achievement
• Talk about Carbon Capture and Storage
• Not a lot else

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World Economic Growth and Energy Intensity
GDP is rising on a per capita basis and because
of population growth. At the same time due to
technological improvements that have resulted in
increasing thermodynamic efficiencies as well as
some sectoral change energy consumption per unit
of GDP (energy intensity) has been falling. As a
result emissions have not been rising as fast as
GDP.
Source DOE Energy Information Administration
at http//www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/carbonemiss/ch
apter1.html 
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The Correlation Between WIP and Emissions
World Industrial Product (deflated world GDP' in
real value - i.e. World physical production).
CO2 emissions (in CO2 mass units Doubling time
29 years. Data CDIAC statistics GDI.
The correlation between the WIP and the CO2
emissions is still however very high.
Source Di Fazio, Alberto, The fallacy of pure
efficiency gain measures to control future
climate change, Astronomical Observatory of Rome
and the Global Dynamics Institute
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The Correlation Between WIP and Emissions

• The correlation between emissions and GDP is high
  because
• Fossil fuels supply 90 of the world's energy.
• Energy is used to produce goods (WIP)
• Only in recent years
• have we been seriously trying to improve
  efficiency (most of the Kyoto effort)
• there has been a shift to services with lower CO2
  intensity

Energy Money ?
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The Limits to Efficiency Improvements
There are may ways the second law of
thermodynamics can be enunciated but relevant to
us is Lord Kelvins version. It is impossible
to convert heat completely into work Using
Carnots law it is possible to calculate the
theoretical maximum efficiency of any heat engine
such as a power station turbine or engine of a
car, bus or train. (Try the calculator at
http//hyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu/hbase/thermo/
carnot.html) Most heat engines run at much lower
efficiencies than the theoretical limit so there
is still scope for improvements however the law
of diminishing returns applies in terms of cost.
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Efficiency Limitations to Emissions Reduction
Total per capita emissions reduction
Rate of Per Capita Emissions Reduction
Per capita emissions reduction through Pilzer 1st
law substitution (Technology change resource
use change)
Per capita emissions reduction through
thermodynamic efficiency
The Future
2008
Conclusion It is essential that R D into
substitution technologies occurs now in order to
ramp up Pilzer first law substitution later and
avoid thermodynamic constraints. This is not
happening in Australia
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What We Dont Want to Talk About
?
?
Undeveloped Countries
Demographic Explosion
Developed Countries
Global population, consumption per capita and our
footprint on the planet are continuing to rise
strongly.
The paradox Affluence Population Control
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Kyoto Strategies are not Working
Assuming Kyoto commitments are met (which is
unlikely) it is estimated that global emissions
will be 41 higher in 2010 than in 1990, 1 less
than without Kyoto.
Ford M, Matyseka M, et al. (2006). Perspectives
on international climate policy. Australian
Agricultural and Resource Economics Society 50th
Annual Conference, Sydney, ABARE.
www.aares.info/files/2006_matysek.pdf.
We are tracking on worst case scenarios.
Whetton, P, Leader, Climate Impacts Risk Group,
CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Aspendale,
Vic, Australia in presentation Climate Change
What is the science telling us?
A solution is needed of the utmost urgency to
preserve history for many, many generations to
come. Sir Richard Branson at the launch of the
Virgin Earth Prize
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Fossil Fuel Usage Continues to Rise
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Oil will However Decline
The current round of inflation has less to do
with dangerous underlying demand than with real
shortages in oil. Crippling our economy by
cranking up interest rates is about the most
stupid thing a government can do as the economy
needs to be in good shape to adapt to resource
use change.
Where is the R D for oil replacement?
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Frightening Graphs from ABARE
Global primary energy consumption fuel mix
Global primary energy consumption projections
Global primary energy consumption by fuel mix,
2050
Composition of Aust Government energy research
and development in 2002
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More Frightening Graphs from ABARE
Ford M, Matyseka M, et al. (2006). Perspectives
on international climate policy. Australian
Agricultural and Resource Economics Society 50th
Annual Conference, Sydney, ABARE.
www.aares.info/files/2006_matysek.pdf.
Global greenhouse gas emissions
An over emphasis on geosequestration (CCS)?
Sources of abatement global technology
partnership CCS
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Reducing the CO2 in the air without Curtailing GDP

• The challenge is to find ways of reducing CO2 in
  the air without negatively impacting the economy.
• Substitution to Non Fossil Fuel Sources of Energy
• Geothermal, Wind, Solar etc.
• Nuclear
• Sequestration on a Massive Scale
• Geo-sequestration (clean coal, hydrogen fuel
  etc.) - limited
• Anthropogenic sequestration in the built
  environment - our preferred option

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Geosequestration

• Is not safe due to leakage (China recently?)
• Is not likely to be ready before 2015 for coal
  fired power stations in Australia
• Authoritative published studies estimate the cost
  of geosequestration at between 30-140/tCO2. (a
  wide range due to so many uncertainties)
• Added to the cost of coal or hydrogen, these
  sources of energy with geosequestration may be
  more expensive that alternatives.

A long term plan would included the required R
D now
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Affect of Leakage on Geosequestration
"The assumption of exclusive reliance on storage
may be an extreme one, however the example
illustrates that emphasis on energy efficiency
and increased reliance on renewable energy must
be priority areas for greenhouse gas mitigation.
The higher the expected leakage rate and the
larger the uncertainty, the less attractive
geosequestration is compared to other mitigation
alternatives such as shifting to renewable energy
sources, and improved efficiency in production
and consumption of energy."
Source CANA (2004). Carbon Leakage and
Geosequestration, Climate Action Network
Australia.
Downloadable Model at http//www.tececo.com/files/
spreadsheets/GaiaEngineeringVGeoSequestrationV1_26
Apr08.xls
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Synopsis

• We must accept our long term role of maintaining
  spaceship earth as planetary engineers and find
  ways of maintaining the level of carbon dioxide,
  oxygen and other gases in the atmosphere at
  desirable levels.
• We cannot possibly arrest the alarming increases
  in atmospheric carbon dioxide currently occurring
  through efficiency, emissions reduction
  (constraint) or substitution alone
• Geo-sequestration is at best short term and at
  worst highly risky. What would have happened
  recently if the Chinese were using the
  technology?
• We have a good chance of preserving the future if
  we mimic nature and find profitable uses for
  carbon and other wastes.

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Synopsis

• Uses for carbon and other wastes must be
  economically driven and result in a real value
  that puts profit in the pocket of a large number
  who will as a consequence wish to engage
  otherwise they cannot be implemented on the
  massive scale required.
• Anthropogenic sequestration as man made carbonate
  in the built environment is a new technology
  platform that has the promise of profitably
  sequestering massive amounts of carbon
  profitably.
• The markets created for man made carbonate in
  buildings are insatiable, large enough and
  indefinitely continuing.
• Anthropogenic sequestration by building with man
  made carbonate is doable and most likely presents
  the only option we have for saving the planet
  from runaway climate change until such time as
  safe and reliable forms of energy alternative to
  fossil fuels can be developed
• Anthropogenic sequestration by building with man
  made carbonate must be part of any long term
  planetary maintenance strategy.

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Learning to Use Carbon - Geomimicry for Planetary
Engineers?

• Large tonnages of carbon (7 of the crust) were
  put away during earths geological history as
  limestone, dolomite and magnesite, mostly by the
  activity of plants and animals.
• Orders of magnitude more than as coal or
  petroleum!
• Shellfish built shells from carbon and trees turn
  it into wood.
• These same plants and animals wasted nothing
• The waste from one is the food or home for
  another.
• Because of the colossal size of the flows
  involved the answer to the problems of greenhouse
  gas and waste is to use them both in an
  insatiable, large and indefinitely continuing
  market.
• Such a market exists for building and
  construction materials.

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Geomimicry for Planetary Engineers?

• The required paradigm shift in resource usage
  will not occur because it is the right thing to
  do.
• Can only happen economically.
• To put an economic value on carbon and wastes
• We have not choice but to invent new technical
  paradigms such as offered by TecEco and the
  Global Sustainability Alliance (Gaia
  Engineering).
• Evolving culturally to effectively use these
  technical paradigms
• By using carbon dioxide and other wastes as
  building materials we can economically reduce
  their concentration in the global commons.

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Size of Carbon Sinks
Modified from Figure 2 Ziock, H. J. and D. P.
Harrison. "Zero Emission Coal Power, a New
Concept." from http//www.netl.doe.gov/publication
s/proceedings/01/carbon_seq/2b2.pdf by the
inclusion of a bar to represent sedimentary sinks
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Carbon Sink Permanence
Carbonate sediment 40,000,000 Gt
Sequestration Permanence and time
Methane Clathrates 100,000 Gt
Fossil Fuels 8,000 Gt
Soils and Detritus 1600 Gt
Plants 600 Gt
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Anthropogenic Sequestration of Carbon and Wastes

• During earth's geological history large tonnages
  of carbon were put away as limestone and other
  carbonates and as coal and petroleum by the
  activity of plants and animals.
• Sequestering carbon in calcium and magnesium
  carbonate materials and other wastes in the built
  environment mimics nature in that carbon is used
  in the homes or skeletal structures of most
  plants and animals.

CO2
CO2
In eco-cement concretes the binder is carbonate
and the aggregates are preferably carbonates and
wastes. This is geomimicry
CO2
C
CO2
Waste
Pervious pavement
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Geomimicry

• There are 1.2-3 grams of magnesium and about .4
  grams of calcium in every litre of seawater.
• There is enoughcalcium and magnesiumin seawater
  with replenishmentto last billions of years at
  current needs for sequestration.
• To survive we must build our homes like these
  seashells using CO2 and alkali metal cations.
  This is geomimicry

• Carbonate sediments such as these cliffs
  represent billionsof years of sequestrationand
  cover 7 - 8 of the crust.

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Anthropogenic Sequestration Using Gaia
Engineering will Modify the Carbon Cycle
More about Gaia Engineering at http//www.tececo.c
om.au/simple.gaiaengineering_summary.php
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Building and Construction Represents an
Insatiable, Large and Indefinitely Continuing
Market for Anthropogenic Sequestration

• The built environment is made of materials and is
  our footprint on earth.
• It comprises buildings and infrastructure.
• Construction materials comprise
• 70 of materials flows (buildings, infrastructure
  etc.)
• 40-50 of waste that goes to landfill (15 of
  new materials going to site are wasted.)
• Around 50 billion tonnes of building materials
  are used annually on a world wide basis.
• The single biggest materials flow (after water)
  is concrete at around 18 billion tonnes or 2
  tonnes per man, woman and child on the planet.
• 40 of total energy in the industrialised world
  (researchandmarkets)

Why not use magnesium carbonate aggregates and
building components from Greensols and
Eco-Cements from TecEco to bind them together?
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Only the Built Environment is Big Enough
The built environment is our footprint, the major
proportion of the techno-sphere and our lasting
legacy on the planet. It comprises buildings and
infrastructure
Source of graphics Nic Svenningson UNEP SMB2007
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Economically Driven Technological Change
New, more profitable technical paradigms are
required that result in more sustainable and
usually more efficient moleconomic flows that
mimic natural flows or better, reverse our
damaging flows.
- ECONOMICS -
Change is only possible economically. It will not
happen because it is necessary or right.
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Consider Sustainability as Where Culture and
Technology Meet
Increase in demand/price ratio for greater
sustainability due to cultural change.

Supply
Equilibrium Shift
Greater Value/for impact (Sustainability) and
economic growth
ECONOMICS
We must rapidly move both the supply and demand
curves for sustainability
Demand
Increase in supply/price ratio for more
sustainable products due to technical innovation.

A measure of the degree of sustainability is
where the demand for more sustainable
technologies is met by their supply.
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Changing the Technology Paradigm
It is not so much a matter of dematerialisation
or constraint as a question of changing the
underlying moleconomic flows. We need materials
that require less energy to make them, do not
pollute the environment with CO2 and other
releases, last much longer and that contribute
properties that reduce lifetime energies. The key
is to change the technology paradigms

• By enabling us to make productive use of
  particular raw materials, technology determines
  what constitutes a physical resource1
• Pilzer, Paul Zane, Unlimited Wealth, The Theory
  and Practice of Economic Alchemy, Crown
  Publishers Inc. New York.1990

Or more simply the technical paradigm
determines what is or is not a resource!
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Cultural Change is Happening!

• Al Gore (SOS)
• CSIRO reports
• STERN Report
• Lots of Talkfest
• IPCC Report
• Political change
• Branson Prize
• Live Earth (07/07/07)

The media have an important growing role
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Why Magnesium Carbonates?

• Because of the low molecular weight of magnesium,
  it is ideal for scrubbing CO2 out of the air and
  sequestering the gas into the built environment
• Due to the lighter molar mass of magnesium more
  CO2 is captured than in calcium systems as the
  calculations below show.
• At 2.09 of the crust magnesium is the 8th most
  abundant element
• Sea-water contains 1.29 g/l compared to calcium
  at .412 g/l
• Magnesium compounds have low pH and polar bond in
  composites making them suitable for the
  utilisation of other wastes.

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Making Carbonate Building Materials to Solve the
Global Warming Problem

• Magnesium materials from Gaia Engineering are
  potential low cost. New kiln technology from
  TecEco will enable easy low cost simple non
  fossil fuel calcination of magnesium carbonate to
  make binders with the CO2 recycling to produce
  more carbonate building material to be used with
  these binders.
• How much magnesium carbonate would have to be
  deposited to solve the problem of global warming?
• The annual flux of CO2 is around 12 billion
  tonnes 22.99 billion tonnes magnesite
• The density of magnesite is 3 gm/cm3 or 3
  tonne/metre3
• 22.9/3 billion cubic metres 7.63 cubic
  kilometres of magnesite would have to be
  deposited each year.
• Compared to the over seven cubic kilometres of
  concrete we make every year, the problem of
  global warming looks surmountable.
• If magnesite was our building material of choice
  and we could make it without releases as is the
  case with Gaia Engineering, we have the problem
  as good as solved!

Anthropogenic sequestration - building with
carbonate and waste is the answer
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Gaia Engineering Process Diagram
Gaia Engineering delivers profitable outcomes
whilst reversing underlying undesirable
moleconomic flows from other less sustainable
techno-processes outside the tececology.
Inputs Atmospheric or industrial CO2,brines,
waste acid or bitterns, other wastes Outputs Carb
onate building materials, potable water, valuable
commodity salts.
Carbon or carbon compoundsMagnesium compounds
Carbonate building components
Solar or solar derived energy
TecEcoKiln
TecEco MgCO2 Cycle
MgO
Eco-Cement
MgCO3
Extraction Process
1.29 gm/l Mg.412 gm/l Ca
Coal
Fossil fuels
Oil
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Gaia Engineering Flow Chart
Portland CementManufacture
CaO
TecEcoTec-Kiln
Industrial CO2
MgO
Clays
Fresh Water
TecEcoCementManufacture
MgCO3 and CaCO3Stone
Brine or Seawater
Extraction
Eco-Cements
WasteAcid or Bitterns
Tec-Cements
Valuable Commodity Salts or hydrochloric acid.
Buildingcomponents aggregates
Extraction inputs and outputs depending on method
chosen
Other waste
Built Environment
Building waste
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A Replacement for Kyoto

• Must be
• More than a promissory system.
• Dynamically adaptable
• Provide for
• Planning
• Support for R D on a new and different non
  commercial model
• Technical assistance
• Indicate a long term price for carbon
• So that today's decisions result in the
  investment required in tomorrow's technologies
• Not impose
• A financial burden on the economy
• An administrative burden on participants
• Address
• Scope 3 emissions