Leadership: Predicting

1

• Leadership Predicting
• and Preparing Potential 2007 IPMA-HR
  Conference
• Chicago, Illinois
• October 1, 2007
• Harry Brull
• Personnel Decisions International612/337-8233Har
  ry.Brull_at_personneldecisions.com

2
Where were Going

• How has leadership been looked at?
• What seems to predict success?
• What does it take to lead?
• How do leaders develop?
• What about the organizational view?
• What can we expect tomorrow?

3
Organizations need more and better leaders

• Turnover at the top is endemic executive failure
  estimates around 30
• Nearly half of Fortune 1000 companies report a
  shortage of leaders only 8 believe they have
  sufficient capacity for growth (Conference Board,
  Bridging the Leadership Gap, 1998)
• 10 of 11 good-to-great companies had homegrown
  CEOs vs. comparison group with 6 times more
  outsiders (Collins, 2001)
• 70 of federal government managers are expected
  to turn over in the next five years

4
Why Leadership Matters. Part I

• Think of all the natural disasters of the past
  100 years.
• Imagine how many people died.
• Now consider the following
• In the 20th century 167,000,000 people were
  killed for political reasons.
• 37,000,000 were killed by invading armies.
• 130,000,000 people were killed by their own
  governments.

5
Why Leadership Matters. Part II

• Psychologists study the fate of careers.
• Economists study the fate of organizations.
• Economists estimate that leadership is, in
  quantitative terms, the key driver of
  organizational performance.
• This news has yet to percolate into either
  academic psychology or the HR community.

6
The history of recognizing leaders

• The Greeks
• The early physicalists
• The later physicalists
• The early academics
• -McClland
• -Ohio State studies
• Current thinking

7
Contributions From Sociology andAnthropology

• What people are like way down deep. Sociology
  and anthropology reveal three important human
  universals
• People always live in groups.
• Every group has a status hierarchy.
• Every group has a religion.
• This suggests that people need companionship,
  people need status, and people need a sense of
  meaning and purpose.
• These needs are met during social interaction and
  especially at work.

8
Implications of the Previous Slide

• Leadership should be conceptualized in terms of
  evolutionary history.
• People evolved as group living animals.
• There was competition within the group for
  status.
• There was competition between the groups for
  dominion.
• The losers disappeared from the gene pool.
• The best performing groups survived and
  prevailed.
• Leadership is a resource for group performance.

9
Current Defininitions of Leadership

• The current leadership literature is
  overwhelming. It can be separated into two
  traditions
• The Troubadour Tradition Opinions of
  self-appointed gurus and former CEOs
• The Academic Tradition Empirical research from
  Academia

10
What makes a great leader?

• Thoughts?

11
Evaluating the Two Traditions

• The Troubadour Tradition is entertaining but
  unscientific
• The Academic Tradition is scientific but often
  trivial
• The existing leadership literature is huge but
  not very helpful for understanding leadership.

12
What do the following leaders have in common?

• Sitting Bull
• Susan B. Anthony
• Winston Churchill
• Jim Jones (of Jonestown notoriety)
• Adolph Hitler
• Mahatma Ghandi
• Joan of Arc
• Lee Iacocca
• Martin Luther King

13
I can call spirits from the vasty
deepGlendower, to Hotspur, in Henry IV, Part 1

• Hotspurs response
• Why, so can I, or so can any man. But will they
  come when you do call them?

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How to Define and Evaluate Leadership. Part I

• Academic researchers define leadership in terms
  of who is in charge.
• How does one get to the top of a large,
  bureaucratic, hierarchical, male-dominated
  organization?
• By playing politics, not by displaying leadership
  (Donald Rumsfeld, Richard Cheney, and many
  others).
• How are these leaders evaluated?
• By their bosses.

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How to Define and Evaluate Leadership. Part
II(Continued)

• Leadership should be defined in terms of the
  ability to build and maintain a high performing
  team
• Leadership should be evaluated in terms of the
  performance of the team relative to the other
  teams with which it may be appropriately
  compared.
• This is rarely done

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LEADER VS MANAGER

• MANAGER

• LEADER

What differentiates the two?
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LEADER VS. MANAGER

• MANAGER
• Tells/Informs
• Focuses on the Job
• Understands the Job
• Works to Serve a Mission
• Reactive
• Worries about Todays Results
• Monitoring, Evaluating, and Reporting Results

• LEADER
• Asks/Listens
• Builds Trust and Loyalty with People
• Understands the People
• Works to Serve a Purpose
•         Proactive
• Worries about Long-term Viability
• Recognizing Achievements and Expressing
  Appreciation

CONTROL
CHANGE
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• Leadership is not necessarily better than
  management or a replacement for it. Rather,
  leadership and management are two distinctive and
  complementary activities. Both are necessary for
  success in an increasingly complex and volatile
  business environment.
• John Kosner
• The manager asks how and when the leader asks
  what and why.
• Warren Bennis

19
Leadership

• interpersonal influence exercised through a
  process of communication and directed toward
  specified goals of change.

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What seems to Matter Competency Models

• Competency models came into vogue in the 1980s.
• Every organization has one.
• A camel is a horse designed by a committee.
• Competency models are designed by committees.
• They all have the same underlying structure.

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Foundation of Leadership

• Competence
• Does s/he know what s/he is doing?
• Sense of Direction
• Does s/he know where s/he is going?
• Honesty/Integrity
• Can I trust this leader?
• Energy/Enthusiasm
• Is s/he excited about the journey?
• Kouzes Posner

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Foundation of Leadership

• Honesty/Integrity (87)
• Can I trust this leader?
• Sense of Direction (71)
• Does s/he know where s/he is going?
• Energy/Enthusiasm (68)
• Is s/he excited about the journey?
• Competence (58)
• Does s/he know what s/he is doing?
• Kouzes Posner

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Leadership takes many forms

• When you think of leadership, you think of
  personal qualities...
• Yet there is no single template, even for the
  most admired leaders (Fortune Most Admired, 1998)
• Every conceivable leadership style is
  represented by these CEOS from the 10 most
  admired companies in America
• Jack Welch is combative
• Kelleher is a prankster and a kisser so
  unabashedly affectionate that his company's
  ticker symbol is LUV... he says, Im a naïf
  about financials.
• Bill Gates is scathing about statements he
  considers stupid
• Ralph Larsen, JJ I try to encourage, to give
  people a sense of self-worth and self-esteem
• Warren Buffet says I delegate almost to the
  point of abdication

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Understanding the leader is not enough... Context
matters, too

• Context is just as important as leadership
  qualities...
• Winston Churchill
• Rudolph Giuliani
• Steve Jobs
• Leadership specialists for different challenges
• Turnaround artists
• Start-up
• Maintenance managers

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The Structure of Competence
Technical Knowledge Factor
Factors of Human Effectiveness
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The Structure of Competence
Technical Knowledge Factor
Thinking Factor
Factors of Human Effectiveness
28
The Structure of Competence
Technical Knowledge Factor
Thinking Factor
Factors of Human Effectiveness
Administrative Factor
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The Structure of Competence
Technical Knowledge Factor
Thinking Factor
Factors of Human Effectiveness
Administrative Factor
Communication Factor
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The Structure of Competence
Technical Knowledge Factor
Thinking Factor
Factors of Human Effectiveness
Administrative Factor
Interpersonal Factor
Communication Factor
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The Structure of Competence
Technical Knowledge Factor
Thinking Factor
Factors of Human Effectiveness
Leadership Factor
Administrative Factor
Interpersonal Factor
Communication Factor
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The Structure of Competence
Technical Knowledge Factor
Thinking Factor
Motivation Factor
Factors of Human Effectiveness
Leadership Factor
Administrative Factor
Interpersonal Factor
Communication Factor
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The Structure of Competence
Self-management Factor
Technical Knowledge Factor
Thinking Factor
Motivation Factor
Factors of Human Effectiveness
Leadership Factor
Administrative Factor
Interpersonal Factor
Communication Factor
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Building Blocks of Success
Easier to develop
Skills
Knowledges
Experiences
Interests Values Motivations
Abilities
Traits
Harder to develop
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Nature and Nurture

• The leadership instinct you are born with is the
  backbone. You develop the funny bone and the
  wishbone that go with it. Elaine Agather

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On the other hand, only 30 of the variation in
leadership effectiveness or emergence is genetic.

• Bruce Avolio, citing Arvey, et. al.
• In American Psychologist

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McLellands work

• Need Achievement
• Need Affiliation
• Need Power

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360º Feedback The View From the Observers

• Question If everybody around you says you look
  like a duck, walk like a duck, and talk like a
  duck

Does that make you a duck?
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Managerial Predictors of Success
(Competence)

• Influence Others (leadership)
• Use Sound Judgment (Thinking)
• Establish Plans (Administrative)
• Provide Direction (Leadership)
• Analyze Issues (Thinking)
• Composite - Overall Performance

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Managerial Predictors of Success
(Potential)

• Influence Others (Leadership)
• Think strategically (Thinking)
• Provide Direction (Leadership)
• Establish Plans (Administrative)
• Know the Business (Organizational Knowledge)

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Managerial Predictors of Success
(Jeopardy)

• Building Relationships (Interpersonal)
• Acting with Integrity (Self-management)
• Displaying Organizational savvy (Interpersonal)
• Demonstrating adaptability (Self-management)
• Managing Disagreements (Interpersonal)

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Management Differences Study

• 1497 Supervisors
• 3741 First-level Managers
• 4756 Mid-level Managers
• 3743 Executives

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Vocabulary x Managerial Level
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Space Visualization x Managerial Level
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Numerical Reasoning x Managerial Level
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Verbal Reasoning x Managerial Level
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Critical Thinking x Managerial Level
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CPI Dominance x Management Level
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CPI Leadership x Managerial Level
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CPI Mgmt. Potential by Managerial Level
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CPI Independence x Managerial Level
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CPI Femininity x Managerial Level
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If one accepts the assumptionthat mean
scores ofincumbents represent the requiredlevel
of ability for a job,these data suggest that
personality requirements increase as level
increases and, for cognitive ability, job
requirements differ depending upon the specific
ability tested.Kuncel, N. R.Personnel
decisions Internationalpaper presented at 1997
SIOP
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Personality and Leadership (I)

• Research shows overwhelmingly that personality
  (reputation) can be defined in terms of five
  broad dimensions
• Adjustment core self-esteem
• Ascendance social potency
• Agreeableness social charm
• Prudence conscientiousness and rule-following
• Intellect/Openness curiosity and vision

55
Personality and Leadership (II)

• A recent and definitive meta-analysis (Judge,
  Bono, Ilies, Gerhardt, 2002) shows that 4 of
  the 5 dimensions of the Five-Factor Model predict
  ratings of leadership independent of the
  organization or occupational specialty. The best
  predictor is Adjustment, the weakest is
  Likeability.
• Overall correlation was above .50. Cognitive
  ability was about .28.

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Deniz Ones Study of the Presidency

• Personality of the presidents
• Presidential scholars concensus on greatness (and
  lack thereof)
• Findings

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The View of Jim Collins

• Leadership and God
• Driven/Humble
• The Stockman Paradox
• Windows and mirrors
• The bus
• What are the implications of this for charismatic
  leadership where is Carlton (Carly) Fiorina now?

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Leadership Development
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Shifts in leaderss role and scope
Potential
Corporate Executive
General Manager
Function Manager
Team Leader
Individual Contributor
Performance

• Self
• Managing tasks

• Team
• Managing through others

• Ongoing operation
• Managing processes

• Strategic organizational unit
• Managing multiple functions

• Organization
• Managing multiple units

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Shifts in Competencies
Executive
Visionary Thinking Broad Business
Planning Organization Development Entrepreneurial
Risk-Taking Stakeholder Relations
Middle Management
Strategic Thinking Functional Planning Team
Development Results Orientation Cross-Unit
Relations
Entry Level
Practical Problem Solving Work Planning Self
Development Initiative Peer/Boss Relations
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Avoid The Success Trap
Experience the rewards of success
Keep doing the same thing
Situation changes/ requires new or different
skills
FAILURE
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Leadership Success Factors
Thought Leadership e.g., Shape Strategy
Results Leadership e.g., Manage Execution
Thought
Results
Personal
Personal Leadership e.g., Inspire Trust
People
People Leadership e.g., Influence Others
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Use of superfactors to provide focus

• Analysis of competency models show four key areas
  of performance
• Results leadership Motivation, commitment,
  courage
• Thought leadership Strategy, financial acumen,
  judgment, innovation
• People leadership Relationships, communication,
  influencing, motivating, coaching and building
  talent
• Personal leadership Integrity, character,
  self-development, adaptability
• Derailment risk
• People who fail in results leadership either
  learn or they wash out early
• Classic derailers get results, but neglect
  important aspects of people or personal
  leadership (e.g., defensive, lack integrity,
  self-focused, arrogant)

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Challenges Across Levels
Key Factor
General Manager
Function Manager
Team Leader
Individual Contributor

• Contribute to shared vision
• Apply core values

• Develop team charter
• Align plans with strategy

• Develop functional vision
• Shape operational strategy

• Develop business vision
• Shape competitive strategy

Thought

• Vision
• Values
• Strategies

Results

• Deliver work

• Delegate work

• Manage core processes

• Develop core capabilities

• Capabilities
• Processes
• Performance

• Manage P L /org performance

• Manage tasks

• Manage through others

• Manage continuous improvement

• Integrate expertise
• Share expertise/ information

• Integrate accountabilities
• Develop team skills

• Integrate disciplines
• Develop talent pools/team leaders

• Integrate core processes
• Develop managers
• Create learning culture

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Challenges Across Levels
Key Factor
General Manager
Function Manager
Team Leader
Individual Contributor

• Customers
• Bosses
• Colleagues

• Team members
• Sponsors/clients
• Network

• Managers
• Teams
• Learning communities

• External constituents
• Employees
• Leadership

People

• Stakeholders
• Influence
• Collaboration

• Inspire trust

• Inspire ownership

• Inspire commitment

• Inspire continuous improvement

• Collaborate

• Resolve conflicts

• Build consensus

• Create shared purpose

Personal

• Professional
• Learn how to learn
• Ind/Dep balance

• Leadership
• Coach others
• Establish authority

• Managerial
• Mentor others
• Empower others

• Corporate
• Share wisdom
• Shape a legacy

• Role/Identity
• Learning
• Adjustment

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Manage Multiple Relationships
Shareholders
Board of Directors
Financial Analysts
Special Interest Groups
Customers/ Clients
Community Leaders
Suppliers/ Vendors
Executive Relationships
Strategic Alliances
Public Media
Regulatory Agencies
Bosses
External Peer Network
Direct Indirect Reports
Internal Peers/ Colleagues
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Summary of competencies for executives
Performance Potential Peril
Avoidance Seasoned Judgment Seasoned
Judgment Building Org. Relationships
Visionary Thinking Visionary Thinking
Inspiring Trust Shaping Strategy Shaping
Strategy Fostering Open Dialogue
Influencing Negotiating Influencing
Negotiating Influencing Negotiating
Driving Execution High Impact Delivery
Mature Confidence Attracting Dev. Talent
Adaptability Adaptability Drive for
Stakeholder Business Situation Leadership
Versatility Success Versatility
Source E. B. Sloan et al. (1996), Performance,
Potential and Peril What it Takes to Succeed at
the Top.
70
Our Point of View on Development
PDIs Development Pipeline
REAL WORLD PRACTICE
ACCOUNT-ABILITY
CAPABILITIES
INSIGHT
MOTIVATION
Are people willing to invest the time and energy
it takes to develop themselves?
Do people have the capabilities they need?
Do people have opportunities to try their new
skills at work?
Do people internalize their new capabilitiesfeel
accountable to actually improve performance and
results?
Do people know what to develop?
How people grow Assessment provides first two
pieces
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GAPS Relevant Information for Development

• Where person is Where they want
  to go
• Their
• View
• Others
• Views

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GAPS Relevant Information for Development

• Where they are
  Where they want to go
• Their Goals
• View
• Others
• Views

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GAPS Relevant Information for Development

• Where they are
  Where they want to go
• Their Abilities Goals
• View
• Others
• Views

74
GAPS Relevant Information for Development

• Where they are
  Where they want to go
• Your Abilities Goals
• View
• Others Perceptions
• Views

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GAPS Relevant Information for Development

• Where they are
  Where they want to go
• Their Abilities Goals
• View
• Others Perceptions
  Standards
• Views

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Sources of GAPS Information
Where they are
Where they want to go

• Abilities
• Self-assessment and observation
• Track record
• Professional assessment

• Goals
• Introspection
• Development planning
• Career development discussions
• Personal goal setting
• Values clarification

Their view
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Sources of GAPS Information
Where they are
Where they want to go

• Standards
• Roles and responsibilities
• Respected role models
• Competency models
• Organizational vision, values
• Organizational goals, strategies
• Core competencies
• Competitive challenges
• Market demands

• Perceptions
• Direct feedback and conversation with others
• 360o feedback
• Customer feedback
• Performance review

Others Views
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Small Group Exercise GAPS Analysis

• Identify someone you all know and have opinions
  about
• Leader in organization
• Famous person
• List Perceptions and Standards
• List your guesses about Goals and Abilities
  information

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Mental Habits for Lifelong Learning
Risk taking Willingness to push oneself out of
comfort zones
Humble self-reflection Honest assessment of
successes and failures, especially the latter
Solicitation of opinions Aggressive collection
of information and ideas from others
Careful listening Propensity to listen to
others
Openness to new ideas Willingness to view life
with an open mind

From J. Kotter (1996) Leading Change
80
Instead of overcoming weaknesses

• Buckingham Coffman (1999) suggest building on
  strengths
• They suggest leaders
• Get to know peoples strengths, weaknesses,
  goals, and dreams
• Avoid labeling people
• Invest in their best people
• Build on strengths
• (Buckingham Coffman, 1999)

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Key Developmental Events
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The Organizational View
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(No Transcript)
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How Leadership Development Drives Results
Strengthens
Leadership
Development
Creates
X
Environment
Shapes
Behavior
Leadership does not directly produce the results
Generates
Results
85
Leaders influence organizations in two ways

• Direct influence Face to face interactions with
  team members and subordinates.
• Indirect influence Decisions about strategy,
  staffing, and structure.
• The behavioral and decision-making aspects of
  leadership are distinct but complementary.
• Both are related to personality.

86
Leadership and Business Unit Performance

• A recent and definitive meta-analysis (Harter,
  Schmidt, Hayes, 2002) shows five important
  things
• The personalities of managers directly influence
  employee satisfaction.
• When employee satisfaction is high, positive
  business outcomes
• result.
• 3. When employee satisfaction is low, negative
  business outcomes
• result.
• The link between leadership and unit performance
  is mediated by staff morale.
• People join organizations - they quit their boss.

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How Leader Personality Impacts Organizational
Performance
Behaviors
Staff Morale
Organizational Effectiveness
Leader Personality
Leadership Style
Staffing and Strategy
Decisions
88
Leaders influence organizations in two ways

• Direct influence Face to face interactions with
  team members and subordinates.
• Indirect influence Decisions about strategy,
  staffing, and structure.
• The behavioral and decision-making aspects of
  leadership are distinct but complementary.
• Both are related to personality.

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Good Leaders Beget Good Leaders Good Results
Hi
Individual Capability
B
A Team Average A Team Individual
B Team Average B Team Individual
Lo
Organization Results
Hi
90
Define Leadership Needs
91
Meet Challenges ofthe Business Lifecycle
Renewing
Maturing

• Transformers
• Sharpen focus
• Re-seed talent base
• Revitalize organization

• Strategists
• Redefine the market
• Champion change
• Formalize development

Growing

• Builders
• Dominate market
• Build capacity/fill key gaps
• Accelerate development

Starting

• Entrepreneurs
• Establish presence
• Attract key staff
• Learn as you go

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That would be an Oops!
93
Succession Management

• The process by which organizations ensure the
  right talent is available to achieve strategic
  goals
• Includes
• Ensuring the availability of ready successors
  in the right place at the right time
• Building bench strength for key talent pools
• Aligning ready talent with the strategic
  direction
• Filling key openings from within, without delay,
  and with confidence to maximize needed results

94
Where are the future leaders?

• NATIONAL CHANGE IN AGE

1990 - 2000
60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20
25 to 34
20 to 24
Under 5
5 to 9
10 to 14
15 to 19
35 to 44
45 to 54
55 to 59
60 to 64
65 to 74
75 to 84
85
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Common Evidence of Problems

• Key roles unfilled for long periods
• Emergency outside hires
• Key roles filled mostly from outside
• Replacements unsuccessful
• High turnover among High Potentials
• Lack of bench strength is concerning
  Board/Executives
• Complaints about promotion decision fairness
• Politics, popularity, discrimination vs.
  qualifications

96
Performance Measurement in Leading Companies
Current Performance2

• A

• A

• B

High

• A

• B

• C

Competencies (The How of Performance)
Average

• B

• C

• C-

Low
Exceeds Expectations
Meets Expectations
Below Expectations
Results (The What of Performance)
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9 Box on Performance and Potential
Performance² Potential Matrix

• VeryHIPOs

• HIPOs

• Under Achievers

High

• At Risk

• HIPOs

• Achievers

Average
Potential Assessment

• HighAchievers

• WellPlaced

• High Risk

Low
A Players
B Players
C Players
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Comprehensive Succession Management Process
Review Strategy
Define Organizational Implications
Evaluate Metrics
Revise Success Factors
Promote/ Place Talent
Implement Development Plans
Assess Talent
Conduct Talent Reviews
Build Development Plans
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New skills for the future?

• Learning
• Problem finding
• Cognitive complexity
• Post-rational decision making
• Integrate complex data prioritize information
• Ill-structured problem solving
• Intuitive intelligence
• Multi-tasking
• Cross-cultural skills
• Managing remote teams
• Community skills building citizenship, ethics,
  and environmental awareness diversity and
  inclusion

100
Conclusions and final points

• Look at the whole person Skills, values,
  motives, style
• Effective leadership depends on the person and
  the context
• The type of leadership you want flows from your
  organizational strategy
• Leadership is a differentiator in organizational
  success
• Organizations need to be better at developing
  top-notch leaders
• Old assumptions about leadership can blind us to
  new realities
• Recognize that all that glitters is not gold