Sustainable Energy Solutions

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Sustainable Energy Solutions at the End of the
Age of Oil
Pipeline Safety Trust New Orleans, November 2nd
2006
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The Solar Future
Muhlhausen Solar Farm, Bavaria, Germany 10 MW,
9,000 homes, 30 acres
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Solar-Electric Car Plugged into the Sun
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Solar thermal plants in desert areas
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Zero Energy Housing
Energy Centre
?
Beddington Zero Energy Development, Sutton,
London, UK
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Maybe even Floating Air Turbines?
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So what will it take?
First, we have to step back in time.
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In the beginning. The whole universe is made of
energy, starting with the Big Bang
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We are just beginners, however, in learning how
to use it.
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If the 4,500 million years since Earth formed
were condensed into a single year. January 1
Earth forms into a planet June 1 Abundant
microbial life in the oceans November 15 First
animals evolve December 10 First dinosaurs
appear December 26 Dinosaurs go
extinct December 31, 2pm First humans (5
million years ago) December 31, 1150pm Humans
leave Africa December 31, 1159pm Humans start
agriculture
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If the last 100,000 years were condensed into 24
hours Midnight Modern humans leave
Africa 7am We arrive in Australia 4pm We
arrive in Europe, maybe South America 930pm We
begin experimenting with agriculture 1050pm
Egyptian culture blossoms 1130pm Jesus is
born 1152pm Columbus sails to
America 1157pm Industrial age
begins 115945 Birth of the Internet
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The moral of this story We are just
beginners. We make mistakes. We have
unimaginable potential.
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Planet Earth
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Millions of years ago, the sun shone on Planet
Earth. Forests grew, with giant trees and ferns.
As they fell, their hydrocarbons were stored
away underground.
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Over millions of years, their stored solar energy
was compressed, heated, and turned into coal.
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The same thing happened with ancient plants,
bacteria, and ocean plankton, which turned into
oil and gas.
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It took us millions of years to learn how to
make fire.
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The firewood lasted a long time before it began
to run out
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What did we do, when the firewood ran out?
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First, around 1200 AD, we started using coal.
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Then in 1858 we started using oil
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then in the 1890s, natural gas.
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We dammed big rivers to generate hydro power
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we cracked the atom to generate nuclear power
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with all its problems
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This gave us lots of POWER!

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Our Earth has a very thin atmosphere. It
contains gases which trap the suns heat CO2,
methane, water vapour
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The stability of Earths temperature is
maintained by the balance of CO2 and methane in
the atmosphere.
CO2
Warm
Warm
Warm
Warm
Temperature
Ice age
Ice age
Ice age
Ice age
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Their CO2 accumulates in the atmosphere

As we burn the fossil fuels
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In 1860, atmospheric CO2 was 280 ppm By 2006, it
had risen to 380 ppm
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This pushes us into very unknown territory.
-2074
550 ppm
- 2034
450 ppm
- 2006
-1860
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As the CO2 traps the heat, the temperature rises
rise
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On current trends, the Arctic summer ice will
be gone by 2050 The winter ice may be gone by
2100
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The heat is also causing Greenlands ice to
melt. There is enough ice here to raise global
sea levels by 7 metres.
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Upsala glacier, Argentina, 1928
Upsala glacier, Argentina, 2004
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It is also melting the West Antarctic Ice-Sheet.
There is enough ice here to raise sea levels by
a further 6 metres
Ross Ice Shelf breaking off 11,000 sq km March
2000
?
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Burning all the worlds fossil fuels will
dramatically raise global temperatures. New
Scientist, March 4, 2006
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What do the scientists say?
Number of peer-reviewed articles dealing with
climate change sampled in scientific
journals 1993 - 2003 Percentage of these
articles that expressed doubt as to the human
causes of global warming
928
0
Source Consensus About Climate Change? Pielke
and Oreskes, Science 13 May 2005 952-954
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What do the journalists say?
636
Sample of articles about global warming in the
popular media 1990 - 2004 Percentage of these
articles that expressed doubt as to the human
causes of global warming
53
New York Times, Washington Post, LA Times, Wall
St Journal 18 sample. Source Al Gore, An
Inconvenient Truth
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If the current pace of change continues, a
catastrophic sea level rise of 13 feet this
century is within the realm of possibility.
John Holdren President, American Association for
Advancement of Science August 31st, 2006
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2 meters
1 meter
4 meters
8 meters
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Most of North Americas oil and gas installations
are at sea level
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Meanwhile rising ocean temperatures are
increasing the intensity of hurricanes
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Insurance losses are rising
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Where will they go, when the sea level rises?
Which country will take 17 million refugees from
Bangladesh?
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If we do not act, 25 of all land-based
animals and plants will become extinct within 45
years
Global conservation biology team University of
Leeds, UK, Feb 2004
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If we do not act, more forests will burn
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If we do not act, a third of the planets land
will become desert by the end of the century
Hadley Centre for Climate Change, UK
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If we do not act, the economic cost will be ? 5
to 20 of the worlds GDP, annually If we DO
act, the cost of acting will be ?1 of the
worlds GDP by 2050
Sir Nicholas Stern Senior Economist, The World
Bank October 30th, 2006
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Coming to a movie house near you, soon.
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But wait, theres a second problem Peak Oil
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No new oil or gas is being made, by God or
anyone.
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Growing Demand Shrinking Supply Rising
Prices, Energy Insecurity

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What will the future gas cost?
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The Age of Fossil Fuels is very short

What comes next?
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So what shall we do?

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Drink and be merry?
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Eat another planet?
Alexey Soloviev
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Or get on, and solve the problem?
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The Next Great
Energy Revolution
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Firewood
Solar, Wind, Hydro, Biofuels
Coal
Oil Gas
Nuclear
2000
2100
2200
2300
2400
1900
1800
1700
1600
1500
We are simply entering a new energy revolution
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The goal must be to reduce our greenhouse gas
emissions by 90
This will also solve the peak oil problem
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What is Sustainable Energy? Energy produced from
a natural source that is inexhaustible and
self-regenerating. Heat/Cooling Fuel
Electricity Solar hot water Ethanol
Solar PV Solar space heating Biodiesel
Wind Solar drying Biogas
Microhydro Ground source Biomass Water
source Tidal energy Air source
Wave energy Biogas
Geothermal Biomass
Biogas Geothermal
Efficiency Solar cookers
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HEAT Can we keep warm with sustainable energy?
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Super-Efficiency
Everything could use half as much energy
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Solar hot water

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Solar Hot Water in China Total installed 35
million homes Target for 2015 115 million homes
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Sewer Source Heat-Pumps
200 yards of sewer provides a third of the heat
for 940 homes 5 feet of sewer heats one home
Zurich, Switzerland www.rabtherm.de
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Drake Landing, Okotoks, Alberta Solar Thermal
Heating 12 months a year
The Energy Centre
Community solar heat panels
Solar hot water panels
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Next Question TRAVEL How will we travel when
the magic carpet no longer works?
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The Amazing 1 Horse-Power Car?

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Community Ride-Sharing?



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Stay home for 5 of the trips
5 fuel reduction
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Walk for 5 of the trips
10 fuel reduction
Toronto Walking School Bus
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Cycle for 15 of the trips
25 fuel reduction
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Too Pooped to Pedal?
Go Electric!
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Ride Share for 5 of the trips
30 fuel reduction
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Take the Bus or LRT for 20 of the trips
50 fuel reduction
Boulder, Colorado Neighborhood Eco-Pass 50 to
130 a year
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Transit in Curitiba, Brazil
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Total so far
50 fuel reduction
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For the rest of our travel needs, which vehicle
propulsion shall we use?
Hydrogen? Biofuel? or Electric?
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Hydrogen?
Most hydrogen comes from natural gas, so it
still releases CO2 Very soon, we will be
shipping it in as Liquefied Natural Gas The
global gas supply may peak by 2020, and run out
by 2060
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What about green hydrogen?
Schatz Energy Research Center
This uses electricity to run a fuel cell, to
produce electricity. Why not put put the
electricity straight in the car? For trucks,
ships, planes, it may have merit.
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Bio-Fuels?
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Ethanol from crops sugar cane, switchgrass, corn,
cellulose wastes

• The drawbacks
• The land required for one SUV fill-up could feed
  someone in the developing world for a whole year
• Theres only very small net energy GHG gain

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Biodiesel from waste fats
Restaurant fats, animal fish wastes, crop
wastes Drawback Limited amount of waste fats
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In Zurich, 1200 cars run on Kompogas made from
yard waste compostables www.kompogas.ch
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Or is it the Electric Car?
1950s early model electric car
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Running cost 15 kWh per 100 miles Cost 10 a
month

Horlacher sport 1, 1991 Range 150
miles Assumes 10,000 miles a year _at_ 10 cents/kWh
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If youre feeling wealthy the Tesla EV Roadster
0 to 60 in 4 seconds 250 miles per charge 1 cent
per mile 10,000 miles 100 8 per
month Cost 85,000 US
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Now take a regular hybrid, such as the Prius..
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and add extra batteries
The amazing Plug-In Hybrid EV
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The Joy of Car Sharing You choose your vehicle
to suit your needs
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All trucks can also be Plug-In Hybrids
Japanese hybrid truck 30 reduced fuel needs
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Area required to power 50 of miles driven in US
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Can we generate enough green, sustainable
electricity?
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There is great potential for saving energy
With the best policies, tax credits, and
incentives, we could reduce our demand for power
by 50.
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LED lights only use 1 to 5 watts
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Wind Energy Global potential Enormous
Kappel Wind Farm, Lolland, Denmark
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2005 60,000 MW Global potential 72 million
MW 40 x todays global power needs
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Installed capacity Germany 17,000 MW Spain
10,000 MW US 8,000 MW India 4,000
MW Canada 683 MW www.canwea.org
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North Dakota has enough wind to produce 33 of
all US electricity needs. 66 if everything was
twice as efficient.
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Solar Energy - 40 growth pa 50 cents/kWh Global
Potential enormous
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All the world's energy could be achieved by
solar many thousands of times over" Roger
Booth, Shell Oil.
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The Price of Solar PV
Sources Powerlight (above) Solar Buzz Market
Report (right)
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12 kW solar shingles, Montana
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10 of Nevada, if covered with solar PV, could
produce 100 of USA electricity needs.
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Build solar thermal plants in the worlds
deserts, and ship to the cities by HVDC Cable
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Tidal energy Global potential 18 of worlds
power needs
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Wave energy 9 cents kWh
500 kW Limpet, Islay, Scotland Pelamis,
off Portugal
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What about nuclear power?

• The private sector wont invest
• An investment in efficiency goes much further
• The waste is radioactive for a million years
• The worlds uranium is a limited resource
• It can be used to make a nuclear bomb
• It has to be closed down in really hot weather

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Tying it all Together The Distributed Grid
Bonneville Power Administration, WA
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Does it add up? World use in 2004 120,000
TeraWatt hours If everything was 2 x efficient
60,000 TWh Tidal 21,000 TWh Biomass
75,000 TWh Geothermal 137,000 TWh Wind
628,000 TWh Total 981,000 TWh 8 x more
than we need Solar at 120,000 TWh per 340,000
sq miles
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We already have most of the technologies we need
to enjoy life in a peaceful sustainable world,
without fossil fuels, and without most wars.
What is lacking is clear VISION and the
right POLICIES
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Swedens vision, and its overall aim, is to
hand over to the next generation a society in
which all major environmental problems have been
solved.
World is a garden for all the children ? By
Martina Domanova age 12 Slovak Republic
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Sweden plans to end its dependency on oil by
2020 No home will need oil for heating no
motorist will be obliged to use petrol as the
sole option available." More use of
biofuels Biomass district heating Hybrid and
ethanol cars Renewable electricity
Sweden 9 million people
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• Germanys Advanced Renewables Tariff has already
  led to
• 110,000 PV systems
• 2,000 biomass plants
• 6,000 small hydro plants
• 16,500 wind turbines
• 45,000 jobs in the wind industry

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Every time humankind has switched from an
existing fuel to a newer one - from wood to
coal, coal to oil, oil to natural gas - the
switch has been associated with economic
progress. The same will be true for alternative
energies such as wind energy, solar power,
cogeneration, and fuel cells. - Jim Woehrle
and Julie Bach Minnesotans for an
Energy-Efficient Economy
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Rather than ship goods around the world, we must
build strong local economies
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Expand local organic agriculture
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If the whole world moved to organic
cultivation The developed world would have a
20 lower yield The developing world would have a
93 higher yield Overall, thered be 4,381
calories per person per day A healthy person
needs 2,000 to 2500 per day Source WorldWatch
May 2006. Summary of 200 studies
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We need to grow, eat, and celebrate local organic
food. PS It also contains salvestrols, which
protect against cancer. www.salvestrolscience.co
m www.salvestrols.ca
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So what are we supposed to do?
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What can I do?
Grow local organic food
Make your home super-efficient
Travel by foot and bike
Put solar on your roof
Share rides, use biodiesel
Talk to your friends and neighbours
Become active
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Become Carbon Neutral Solar Electric Light
Fund www.self.org
Solar energy Replaces kerosene
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What Can Your Community Do?
Be a champion for your region Set clear goals,
as 285 US cities have done Engage your citizens,
and their creativity
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Join the Activity
California has legislated a 25 reduction in
greenhouse gases by 2020, 80 by 2050. Many
nations are working to reduce their emissions
The new energy revolution is underway.
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Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful,
dedicated citizens can change the world.
Indeed, it's the only thing that ever
has.? Margaret Mead
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There are only two problems on Planet Earth. The
first is the sum total of all our social,
economic, and environmental problems. The second
is the belief that we cannot solve them.
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Come on, guys! If you go on sitting around like
this, you'll have no future. Wake up! Call the
media! Get your big fat butts on TV! Climate
change is destroying our world!
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10 Solutions for Individuals 10 Solutions for
Churches, Schools, and Colleges 10 Solutions for
Cities 10 Solutions for Businesses 15 Solutions
for Energy Companies 5 Solutions for Auto
companies 10 Solutions for State Governments 10
Solutions for Federal Governments 10 Solutions
for Developing Nations 10 Global Solutions
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Heres our choice
Do we sit back and wait for our civilization to
fall apart
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Or do we get to work, and build the world we
want?
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If we are not guided by a conscious vision of
the future we want to see
we will be guided by our unconscious acceptance
of the present we already have.
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In quantum physics, there are particles whose
origin lies in the past, and particles whose
origin lies in the future. Every habit is
premised on a past action. Every choice is
premised on a future intention.
It is the shape of our personal intentions that
determines the future of our lives. It is the
shape of our intentions about the world that
determines the future of the world.
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Our consciousness evolved from stardust. It is
part of the Universe. We ARE the universe,
pondering its own future.
How are we going to choose?
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Together forever save the earth ?Anggi Dito Dwi
Septian (8) ?Al Amanah Elementary School ?Jakarta
(Indonesia)
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The world is full of grief and sorrow, longing
for love,
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and healing.
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Weve got to put aside our differences, and come
together to build our future.
We have work to do.
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Thankyou www.earthfuture.com