Climate Change and Impacts on the South West

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Climate Changeand Impacts on the South West
Gloucestershire County Council Symposium Renewable
Energy and the River Severn Stonehouse Court
Hotel, Wednesday 1st November 2006 Tony
Norton Research Fellow Centre for Energy and the
Environment
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The Greenhouse Effect
CO2
H2O
H2O
N2O
CH4
Global warming
Source DCC
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Climate Change History
14/03/05 Update 2005 2.6 to 381ppmv
Atmospheric CO2 concentrations over the past
60,000 years
Source University of Berne and National Oceanic
and Atmospheric Administration
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Climate Change History
Observed global average surface temperature rise
(C) from 1860 to August 2000
Source Hadley Centre
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Climate Change - New Data
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Climate Change - New Data
Scientists at the US National Snow and Ice Data
Centre (NSIDC) in Colorado said the total surface
areas covered by sea ice during September was
smaller than in any other previous year apart
from 2005, when it reached an all-time record
minimum. It was only a sudden change to cool
and stormy weather in August that prevented
another record low being set this September. "At
this rate, the Arctic Ocean will have no ice in
September by the year 2060," said Julienne
Strove, of NSIDC's Scientists fear that as more
and more sea ice is lost, a "positive feedback"
will kick in, with the Arctic Ocean absorbing
more sunlight, which will in turn cause the loss
of more sea ice. Independent 4 October 2006
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Climate Change Modelling
Comparison of observed and simulated global mean
temperatures (C).
Source Hadley Centre
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Climate Change Forecast
Global mean temperature change relative to 1860 -
1890
Source Hadley Centre
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Climate Change Forecasts
Pattern of annual average temperature changes,
2080s relative to present day for A1FI (top),
and B2 (bottom) emission scenarios
Source Hadley Centre
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Climate Change Forecasts
Pattern of annual average precipitation change,
2080s to present day in A1FI (top) and B2
(bottom) emissions scenarios.
Source Hadley Centre
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Changes in Temperaturein the SW

Source SWCCIP
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Changes in Rainfallin the SW

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Changes in Rainfallin the Midlands

Source UKCCIP
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Changes in Sea Level
Source UKCCIP
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Climate Change in the SWSeasonal Summary
Source SWCCIP
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Climate Change ImpactThe Speed of Change
Temp o C
Year
Source SWCCIP
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Climate Change New Analysis
"Only last week, distinguished scientists from 13
nations warned that climate change is
contributing to a potentially catastrophic loss
of species. It is estimated that
12 of all birds,
23 of mammals and 33
of amphibians are threatened with imminent
extinction. Malcolm Wicks, Minister for Energy,
1 August 2006
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Climate Change New Analysis
Century of Drought New research from the Hadley
Centre which may be an underestimate (global
warming induced changes to the carbon cycle not
included) predicts the following changes to
drought of Earths surface Now 2100 Mod
erate 25 50 Severe 8 40 Extreme
3 30 Independent 4 October 2006
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Climate ChangeEmerging New Consensus

• Extraordinary and shocking acceleration in
  climate change
• Massive overwhelming evidence of change
• Recognition of the need to restrict global temp
  rise to lt 2 degrees C
• IPCC 4th Assessment Report ( due 2007)
• 450 ppm CO2 50
  chance of irreversible change
• 550 ppm
  CO2 100 chance of irreversible change
• Facing non-linear change reinforcement loops
  trigger / tipping points
• 10 years to make a difference
• Engineer a huge transformation a non-linear
  response
• The alternative is the inevitable
  disintegration of society
• Politicians in denial how to broker with the
  electorate?
• Opposition to wind power in the South West is
  seriously out of date
• Jonathan Porrit, ENVEC, 4 October 2006

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Contraction Convergence
Source GCI
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Contraction Convergence
Source GCI
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(No Transcript)
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Climate Change Actions
MITIGATION The transition to a low carbon
economy to reduce the magnitude of future
climate change
ADAPTATION Preparation for climate change
impacts that cannot be mitigated
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• - Describes climate change scenarios for
  the SW
• - Identifies the likely impacts of such
  change
• - Suggests actions needed to respond to
  impacts.
• www.oursouthwest.com/climate

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Tony Norton Research Fellow Centre for Energy
and the Environment a.d.s.norton_at_ex.ac.uk Tel
01392 264141