Monitoring and natural resource decisionmaking

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Monitoring and natural resource decision-making
Now what?
James T. PetersonUSGS, Georgia Cooperative Fish
Wildlife Res. UnitWarnell School of Forestry
and Natural ResourcesUniversity of Georgia
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Population status
Information
Habitat quality
Breeding conditions
Population trends
Rookie
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Problems with the Black Box

• Generally not explicit or transparent

• Many unidentified and unstated assumptions

Population
Time
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Problems with the Black Box

• Knowledge is not transferable

• No formal learning component

Rookie
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Problems with the Black Box

• Indirect linkages between monitoring, biology,
  and management objectives/ actions

Monitor population
NO
Population
Time
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Alternative to the Black Box
Information t
Information t1
Actual future population
Management action
Current population
Notions of system dynamics
Anticipated future population
Revise/update ideas
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Decision Analysis
External Physical Influences (weather, habitat
conditions)
Management Actions (habitat improvement, exotic
control, establish corridors)
External Biological Influences (competitors,
predators)
Populations
Stakeholder Benefits (public satisfaction)
Explicit modeling
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Decision Analysis Process

• Identify the decision situation and objectives

• Identify and separate fundamental and means
  objectives (essential!)

Means objectives network
Minimize extinction risk
Maximize spatial distribution
Minimize mortality
Exotic control
Increase habitat
Establish corridors
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An alternative perspective
Biologist
Administrator/ politician
Minimize extinction risk
Maximize harmony
Maximize spatial distribution
Make constituents happy
Make boss happy
Minimize mortality
Increase habitat
Exotic control
Establish corridors
Increase habitat
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The importance of identifying and structuring
objectives

• Focuses monitoring efforts things that matter
  most to the decision-maker

Habitat availability
Probability persistence
Time
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Decision Analysis Process

• Identify the decision situation and objectives

• Identify and separate fundamental and means
  objectives (essential!)

Utility species A species B
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Decision Analysis Process

• Identify the decision situation and objectives

• Identify and separate fundamental and means
  objectives (essential!)

• Identify decision alternatives (what can be
  done)
• e.g., conservation/restoration strategies,
  land acquisition

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Decision Analysis Process

• Construct the model (need to estimate the
  outcome!)
• - Simple (simple is good!)
• - Complex

Where do we get the information?
Empirical data
Published reports (meta-analysis)
and when information is completely lacking
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Expert Judgement
Population size Low Moderate High
Natural mortality
Habitat availability
?
?
?
Low
Low
. . .
. . .
. . .
Medium
Low
Low
High
. . .
. . .
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Identify key uncertainties Sensitivity Analysis

• Focus monitoring efforts to resolve key
  uncertainties
• Improve management and understanding

Decision model components
Meta-population dynamics
Colonization
Reproduction
Local extinction
Initial distribution
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55
65
75
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Probability of persistence
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Learning how a system works

• Conduct additional studies/experiments
• - Time consuming (decisions cant wait)
• - Expensive
• - Potentially wasteful

Population size
time
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Learning how a system works

• Conduct additional studies/experiments
• - Time consuming (decisions cant wait)
• - Expensive
• - Potentially wasteful

• Learn while managing (Adaptive Management)
• - Decisions are made
• - Requires sequential dynamic
  decision-making time and/or space

Sequential decision-making through time
Population
Population
Population
Population
Decision
Decision
Decision
Decision
C. Moore
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Learning how a system works

• Conduct additional studies/experiments
• - Time consuming (decisions cant wait)
• - Expensive
• - Potentially wasteful

• Learn while managing (Adaptive Management)
• - Decisions are made
• - Requires sequential dynamic
  decision-making time and/or space

Sequential decision-making through space (e.g.,
land acquisition)
Site A
Site B
Site C
Site D
Site E
Site F
Site G
C. Moore
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Adaptive Management
Basic elements
Info (monitoring data)t
Info (monitoring data) t1
Actual future population
Management action
Current population
Model A (hypothesis)
Predicted population
Bayes Rule
Model B (hypothesis)
Predicted population
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Summary

• There remains a need for approaches that
  facilitate formal integration
• of monitoring and decision-making in natural
  resource conservation

• Useful approaches also should match monitoring
  outcomes with
• conservation objectives and provide a means to
  identify the most important
• components to monitor.

• Useful approaches should be able to formally
  integrate monitoring,
• modeling, and management and allow for improved
  decision-making over
• time and space.

• Decision analysis and Adaptive Resource
  Management are these approaches