Enrollment Growth

1
A Brief Overview of Environmental Scanning
Resources Office of Institutional Research
Assessment
June, 2008
2

• Charge to the group
• Review documents and reports on Environmental
  Scanning resource web pages
• Report back on pertinent items identified using
  the Environ Scan report under the groups web
  page.
• Focus on findings not previously identified.

3

• Group will have the remainder of the fall 2008
  semester to complete this task.
• IR Office is synthesize additional findings for
  CCC administration.
• Groups work will also allow better
  identification of scanning topics not addressed
  for further investigation.
• Results will be basis for a series of mini-
  reports to the CCC community.

4

• Rest of this presentation will
• Review some of the current scanning resources
  available
• Quickly review some of the known strengths
  weaknesses
• Point out a few examples of lesser known
  strengths weaknesses from scanning sources

5

• Many environmental scans employ a SWOT analysis
  of the historical trend, current status and
  anticipated near future influencing the following
  conditions Demographics
  S
• Economic
• Education
• Industry / Workforce
• Socio-Cultural W
• Political
• Technology
• Legal/Statutory

6

• Known Strengths
• Location, Location, Location
• (Desirous place with scenic beauty, educated
  talent pool,
• and abundant cultural diversity)
• New or remodeled facilities
• Reputation for good teaching and small classes
• Positive and supportive relations with partners
• Flexible little baggage to carry from the past
• Region is growing economically and with in
• migration

7

• Known Weaknesses
• Limited traditional revenue streams
• (low tax rate, purposefully low tuition,
  meager state
• appropriations)
• Distance from major urban area (1 person for
• every 2 sq. miles in Coco Cnty, AZ has 10
  people per 2
• sq. miles)
• Stretched service area (at 18,619 square
  miles,
• Coco Cnty is larger than 10 U.S. states and 77
  countries
• of the world)
• Alumni base is small and mobile

8
Arizona Population 2007
H H h
,500K 250K
ADES, Graphic by ASU Carey Bus. School Greater
Phx Leadership
9

• Examples of lesser known strengths
• Its all about the economy.
• Good draw from county residents who attended
  college for the first time
• Good program match to county employment
  occupations
• Biosciences about to bust loose?

10
Economic Downturn Not as Dire Here as Elsewhere

11
In-State Institutions Most Attended by First-Time
Students Who Are Residents of Coconino
County 3-Year Average from 2003-04 to 2005-06
Source AZ Institutions Data Submission May
2007
12
Occupations Requiring at Least Some Postsecondary
Education with the Most Average Annual Openings
from 2005 to 2025 Coconino
Source Arizona Department of Economic Security
13
Percentage Employment by Industry in 2005
Coconino
Source American Community Survey (ACS)
14

• CCC participation in employer discussions have
  emphasized the need for workforce readiness
  skills that we can deliver -
• Technical writing
• Reading for information
• Practical application of math skills
• Critical thinking and problem solving
• Financial literacy
• Time management skills
• Responsibility accountability

15
Employer quotes about local college
students/graduates - they do not work well as
a member of a team, communication writing but
also being able to effectively communicate with
the average person on the streets, they can
solve a problem but they have difficulty in
finding a problem to solve or they can see
whats right with this picture but they cant see
whats wrong.
16
Bioscience Busting Loose?

Growing Northern Arizonas Bioscience Sector A
Regional Roadmap (Flinn Foundation),
2007 Strategy Three Build the regions talent
pool The colleges (CCC YC) are in a position
to ensure that the region is able to develop a
skilled bioscience workforce to meet the future
needs of the regions expanding bioscience
sector. Northern Arizonas Community
Colleges are able to respond quickly to industry
needs and are expanding their bioscience
offerings. Both Coconino Community College and
Yavapai College are extremely agile and work
closely with industry and the community to meet
workforce development needs.

17
Bioscience Busting Loose?

18

• Examples of lesser known weaknesses
• Disparity in educational achievement
• Abundance of part-time students draws down
  retention
• Whats up with students from Coconino County?
• Degree certificate graduation rates not where
  they should be
• The explosion down south

19
Demographic Analysis Using Public Use Microdata
Areas 2005 American Community Survey (U.S. Census
Bureau)
Flagstaff
Coconino
Northeast
Mohave
Northwest
Apache
Navajo
Yavapai
Prescott
Phoenix
Gila
La Paz
Central
Maricopa
Greenlee
Yuma
Pinal
Graham
Yuma
Southeast
Tucson
Cochise
Pima
Santa Cruz
20
Percent of 25 to 64 Year Olds with a Bachelor's
Degree or Higher - 2005
Source American Community Survey (ACS)
21
Percent of 25 to 64 Year Olds with a College
Degree (Associates and Higher) - 2005
Source American Community Survey (ACS)
22
Educational Attainment of 25 to 64 Year Olds by
Race/Ethnicity 2005 Flagstaff
Source American Community Survey (ACS)
23
Educational Attainment of 18 to 24 Year Olds by
Race/Ethnicity 2005 Flagstaff
Source American Community Survey (ACS)
24
Percent of 25 to 64 Year Olds with Less than a
High School Diploma - 2005
Source American Community Survey (ACS)
25
All Public First-Year to Second Year College
Retention Rates By Student County of Origin
Source AZ Institutions Data Submission May
2007
26
60
50
50
50
50
45
44
39
38
38
40
30
20
10
0
Coconino
Arizona
Source AZ Institutions Data Submission May
2007
27
Public 2-Year Three-Year Associate and
Certificate Graduation Rates CCC and Arizona
10.5
10.2
10.0
9.9
7.7
3.9
3.1
2.5
Coconino
Arizona
Source AZ Institutions Data Submission May
2007
28
Projected Additional First-Time Entering Students
in 2025 to Maintain Current Levels of Service by
County
Source County of Origin of First-Time Students
(AZ Institutions' Data Submission May 2007),
Population Projections by Age (AZ Departments of
Economic Security and Commerce) Note Only
Includes Institutions that Submitted Data for
County of Origin of First-Time Students
29
Cumulative Change Since 1991

At a
Arizona Dept. of Economic Security CCC
30
Coconino County Population and Annual Change
2007 to 2055

Population
At a
Arizona Dept. of Economic Security
31
(No Transcript)
32
Coconino County K-12 Students by Grade, 2008
2008

2013
At a
Arizona Dept. of Education
33
Ideas, Questions Comments