Expanding the Dialogue on Climate Change

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Expanding the Dialogue on Climate Change Water
Management in the Okanagan Region, British
Columbia

• Stewart Cohen Okanagan Study Team

Presented at Union of British Columbia
Municipalities Convention September 29, 2005,
Vancouver
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Agricultural Land Reserve Water Purveyors,
Okanagan, British Columbia (Neilsen et al., 2004)
Okanagan Basin Allocation for Consumptive
Purposes Total allocation 1.05 billion m3.
Number of streams fully recorded 235 of 300.
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Okanagan Region, British Columbia
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Stakeholder views on adaptation March 2001
Engaging dialogue to identify adaptation
strategies to scenarios of streamflow reductions
during the growing season in the Okanagan Basin

• adaptation dialogue is just beginning...

Preferred adaptation options among the
stakeholders?Structural (e.g. building upland
dams) and social measures (e.g., buy out water
licenses) preferred over institutional measures
Some implications of their choices?Stakeholders
identified the high cost of dams, associated
impacts on fisheries, and difficulties in
restricting development as possible implications
of their adaptation choices.
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Scenarioswater supply demand

• Future climate projected to include warmer wetter
  winters and warmer drier summers
• Decreased water supply throughout the basin
• Increased crop water demand
• Increased residential demand this will add to
  increases due to future population growth
• Projections are based on climate change alone
  no scenarios assumed for changes in regional land
  use and water delivery (technology, price, etc.)

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Climate Change Scenarios for winter (upper)
summer (lower) for 50 N, 120W (Taylor and
Barton)
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Streamflow Scenarios for Whiteman Creek (Merritt
et al.)
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Trout Creek Annual Supply/Demand Scenarios
(Neilsen et al., 2004)
high risk cases demand gt 10 million m3 ,
supply lt 30 million m3
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Okanagan Basin Annual Crop Water Demand Scenarios
vs. Okanagan Lake Annual Inflow Scenarios
(Neilsen et al., 2004)
filled symbols are A2 open symbols are B2
2020s, ? 2050s, ? 2080s
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Water demand scenarios, Oliver(Neale, 2005)
CUC constant unit charge IBR increasing block
rate
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Dialogue on Adaptation

• Early adopters case studies provide useful
  insights on local history with proactive
  adaptation measures
• Stakeholders are willing to offer views on
  opportunities and barriers/challenges to
  implementing adaptive measures
• Dialogue process is focusing on implementation of
  various measures, not on ranking of measures
• Theme of dialogue is building an adaptation
  portfolio

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Early Adopters Case Studies(Shepherd, 2004)
Vernon
GVWU
Kelowna
SEKID
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Observations from Early Adopters Case Studies

• Signal detection and evaluation (does the
  signal mean that there is a problem?)
• Perceptions matter
• Scientific uncertainties, on their own, do not
  hinder proactive response
• Importance of local leadership
• Initial conditions (e.g. state of finances, local
  awareness, entrenched interests)
• Need incentives from higher levels of government

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Costs of Adaptation Options in the
Okanagan(McNeill, Hrasko, 2003)

Cost (CAN/acre-ft.)
Water saved or supplied Irrigation
scheduling -large holdings 500
10 -small
holdings 835 10 Trickle
irrigation -high demand areas
1500 30
-medium demand
areas 1666
30 Metering -lowest cost
1882
30
-higher cost
2300-3400 20-30 Public education
-large medium communities
835 10 Leak detection
-average
1567 10-15 Storage
-lowest cost
600
limited
-medium-high cost
1000-1500 limited Lake pumping
-lowest cost 648 0-100
-low cost (no
balancing) 1160
0-100
-higher cost
2200-2700 0-100 1 acre-ft. 1233.5
m3 1 m3 1000 litres
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Stakeholder views on adaptation Part A -Two
Different Communities

• Different adaptation contexts...

• Oliver support for expanded groundwater,
  opposition to long term demand reduction so as to
  preserve allocations limit population growth

• Trepanier mostly unincorporated, rapid growth,
  interest in pumping from the lake leak
  detection, lake water perceived to be dirtier
  than mountain water

Maps by Neilsen et al. (2004)
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Stakeholder views on adaptation Part B
-Basin-wide
Engaging dialogue to identify opportunities and
challenges for basin-wide implementation of
adaptation strategies to scenarios of streamflow
reductions in the Okanagan Basin

• Scaling up from community to basin...

Basin-wide implementation?Need integration with
local growth strategies encourage local
ownership of solutions, and a sense of belonging
to the basin
Institutional challenges?Need clearly defined
mandates to manage water quantity integrate land
use plans with long term water management needs
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Impact on Okanagan Water Management

• Increased awareness among regional water
  managers, planners, political leaders, water
  interests and media
• Participation in study by OBWB members, water
  managers/purveyors, user groups, ONA
• Presentations at BC-WLAP Drought Workshop (2003),
  CWRA-BC events (2003, 2005), UBCM, other events
• Incorporation of climate change into Trepanier
  Landscape Unit Water Management Plan
• Recommends demand management as first priority,
  along with supply augmentation, by 2050 if no
  climate change assumed, and by 2020 if climate
  change is assumed

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Next Steps

• Report submitted to CCIAP/CCAF November 2004
• Also available at
• http//www.ires.ubc.ca, http//climatechange.gc.c
  a, and http//adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca
• Organize policy dialogue and decision support
  model exercise (EC, UBC, regional collaborators
  CCIAP/CCAF, 2004-06)

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2004-2006 Study From Impacts to Adaptation

• System model component (Stacy Langsdale, Jeff
  Carmichael, Barbara Lence, Brian Symonds, many
  Okanagan participants external advisorsCraig
  Forster, Allyson Beall, Jessica Durfee)
• Group-based research local knowledge
• Scenarios from previous study (EC/AAFC/UBC/WLAP)
• Link with Okanagan Fish Water Management Tool (OK
  Technical Working Group)
• Link with ongoing groundwater studies (GSC/WLAP,
  SFU)

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Okanagan Study (2000-2006) From Impacts to
Adaptation
GVWU
SEKID
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Thank you