Chapter 42: The Risk of Motherhood

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Chapter 4-2 The Risk of Motherhood

• 1 death in 16 pregnancies in Africa (1 in 9 in
  Ethiopia), 1 in 65 in Asia and 1 in 1400 in
  Europe (1/4800 in U.S. 1/8,200 in Britain, and 1
  in 17,400 in Sweden).
• half million women die each year from pregnancy
  and childbirth
• 55 in Asia, 40 in Africa
• Most maternity death are preventable
  (malnutrition, anemia, lack of access to health
  care - due to womens status in society)
• Article from Time (Sept, 2008)

2
Population Pyramid(Reading Assignment
page112-126, in Action)

• What you can get from this pyramid? - impact of
  baby booms, wars, pop policy, external
  migrations, dependency ratio
• Poor countries - proportion of female is lower
  (contrast to developed)
• Austria - much more senior female
• Russia - impact of wars show disrupted pattern
• Percentage of pop in each age group strongly
  influences demand for goods and services within
  that countrys economy - more young need
  education/health facilities
• Rate of Natural Increase CBR - CDR (no
  migration)

3
Figure 4-9
4
Figure 4-12- The progression of the boomers

• The baby boom cohort born between 1946 and 1964
  through the US pop pyramid has been associated
  with changing American lifestyles and expenditure
  patterns. In 1970, national priorities focused on
  childhood and young adult interests and the
  needs, education, and support of younger age
  groups. At the turn of the 21st century, boomers
  formed the largest share of the working pop, and
  their wants and spending patterns shaped the
  national culture and economy. By 2030, the
  pyramid foretells, their desires and support
  needs now for retirement facilities and old-age
  care will again be central concerns.

5
Census Bureau population pyramid

• Link (http//www.census.gov/ipc/www/idbpyr.html)

China - boys preference and one-child policy
causes 1 million excess males a year ,entering
marriage market beginning about 2100.
(never-married men outnumber their female
counterparts by 2 to 1) social problems,.. Practi
ce and answer questions on page 127 from Activity
book..(important..)
6
Dependency Ratio/Potential Support Ratio

• (Non-economically active x 100) / Economically
  active
• For example in 1994 UK population structure
• 0 - 14 11.252 million
• 15 - 64 37.690 million
• 65 9 . 156 million
• (11.252 9.156)100/37.69 54.15 per 100 in
  productive years.
• PSR Potential Support Ratio
  ProductiveYear/Senior, dropped from 12 to 9, 4 in
  some countries, slide 6 - UK

7
Demographic Transition (fig 4-17)

• Change of population associated with
  industrialization and urbanization
• Fit Western Europe from agricultural to
  urban-developed countries, may not reflect truth
  in developing countries.
• Stage 1 variable growth, replacement
  process-from a.d. 1 to a.d. 1650
• Stage 2 death rate drops and birth rate still
  high, 1750 in W. Europe (now in Bhutan,
  Nicaragua, pop double in 20 to 25 years)
• Stage 3 birth rate drops, pop begin to level off
• Stage 4 very low birth and death rates.
• Stage 5 negative growth

8
Convergence in fertility

• High TFR in sub-Saharan and northern India will
  provide majority of world population growth to at
  least 2050.
• Low TFR will have better life
• High TFR consume social resources

9
The Cairo Plan

• Abandoned population control
• Giving women more control - increased educational
  access and economic opportunity for women and
  falling
• Fund to stabilize population - Developing
  countries to pay 2/3, 1/3 to be paid by developed
  countries, so far 70 of 2/3 paid and only 35 of
  1/3 paid, U.S. failed to meet its agreed
  contribution.

10
Population Relocation

• In the past, emigration affected countries
  population (fig 4.21)
• In recent decades, only Afghanistan, Cuba, El
  Salvador, and Haiti have as many as 10 of the
  population emigrated.
• Migrants add an unbalanced age and sex component
  to the group they join, heavily skewed in favor
  of young singles.

11
Population Density

• Unevenly distributed - Four clusters East Asia,
  South Asia, Europe and NE US and SE Canada
• US concentration,N and W Europe
• Large pop in small part of land 50 in land, 9/10 in
• Most in lowerland
• 2/3 of pop within 300 mi of the ocean
• East Asia - China,Japan, Taiwan and S Korea
• South Asia - India, Bangladesh, Pakistan and Sri
  Lanka, plus Thailand, Cambodia, Indonesia, and
  Malaysia...
• Ecumene - nonecumene cases of settlement in the
  nonecumene world is Andes Mountains and Mexico
  plateau

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Population Density - 2

• Crude (arithmetic) density - misleading
• Physiological density - population over area of
  arable land, assuming all arable land is equally
  productive and comparably used. (Table 4.4)
• Agricultural Density rural residents per unit
  of agriculturally productive land

13
Carrying Capacity

• Overcrowding is a reflection of carrying capacity
  of a country not density.
• Carrying Capacity - number of people an area can
  support on a sustained basis given the prevailing
  technology. (irrigation/fertilizing vs.
  slash-and-burn)
• Himself
• One small family
• One large family
• One small village
• One large village
• Sub-Saharan countries with pop increase and food
  production decreased. (fig 4.26)

14
Urbanization

• More world pop increase in urban area.
• 750 million will grow to 2.75 billion by 2030 in
  urban.
• fig 4.27
• fig 4.28

15
Population Data

• Not reliable in some countries due to the
  isolation, insufficient fund, lack of training,
  high illiteracy.
• Numbers still reported and published
• Deaths are less completely reported than births
  throughout Asia, Africa is less complete and
  reliable compared to Asia
• In many society, birth days are not noted, no
  western calendar. Chinese 1 year old when born,
  passing New Year plus another year.

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Population Projection

• Population Projection - factors taken in account
  include level of birth rates, literacy,
  education, govt policy, status of women, disease,
  socio-development (smaller families)
• For Africa - predicting fertility rate is the
  most important, different results may emerge.
• Ignorance of env. factors - soils, vegetation,
  water supplies, climate ---affecting carrying
  capacity.

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Thomas Malthus

• An Essay on the Principle of Population as It
  Affects the Future Improvement of Society -
  published in 1798
• Population grows at Geometric rate and Food
  supply Arithmetic rate
• UK would be struck by hunger in 50 yrs.- his
  prediction, butit did not occur, Due to..
• Colonization
• migration and
• Food supply grows exponentially

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Neo-Malthusianism

• J-curve is converted to an S-curve in population
  growth. (4.30)
• Top of the S-curve - population size consistent
  with and supportable by the resources (equivalent
  to the carrying capacity) - reached a homeostatic
  plateau.
• Neo-Malthusianism - China/India, policies
  implemented to control pop.
• Africa/Middle East - not respond to
  Neo-Malthusianism, but Iran developed a family
  planning program.

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Homeostatic Plateaus (each new plateau represents
the conversion of the J-curve into S-curve
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Momentum mv ?

• Even fertility rats declines, number of births
  continues to grow due to age compositions (fig
  4.32)
• Early 21st century Pop in developing country is
  much younger than others grow rapidly
  regardless of the level of childbearing until
  it reach to top part of the pyramids.
• UK drop 2 million in 2025 while S. Korean add 2
  million due to the younger generation pop.

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Aging