Case Study 3 Chinas One Child Policy

1
Case Study 3 Chinas One Child Policy

• 1 Chinese Demographics
• 2 Population Planning in China

2
Chinese Demographics
1

• Demographics...
• More people than the combined population of
  Europe, the Americas and Japan.
• Any change has global ramifications.
• The demography of China is a powerful trend (1.29
  billion).
• About 14-17 million people are added each year in
  1980s.
• Average of 13 million people per year in the
  1990s.
• 10 million people per year in the 2000s.
• 400 million Chinese live in towns and cities
  (30-35).
• 64 of the population lives in rural areas (950
  millions).
• 343 million females are in their reproductive age.

3
The Population of China, 0-2050
1
4
Chinese Population, 1949-2000 (in millions)
(projections to 2050)
1
5
Population of Selected Chinese Provinces, 1998
1
6
Chinese Demographics
1

• The problems of controlling it...
• The population exploded after 1949.
• Population control was secondary.
• Mao Zedong saw numbers as a workforce and a way
  to fight the Soviet Union and the United States.
• Calls for women to breed for the motherland.
• Population distribution
• Excessive concentration.
• 50 of the population lives on 8.2 of the land.
• Bulk of the population along the coast.
• East China accounts for 90 of the population.
• 56, about 728 million, are living in mountainous
  areas.
• High density rural areas.

7
Street Scene, Shanghai
1
8
Chinese Demographics
1

• The 1990 Census
• Counted 1.134 billion Chinese in the PRC.
• Believed to be the most accurate ever taken in
  China.
• A greater than anticipated increase in population
  due in large part to the undercounts of earlier
  censuses.
• Population was urbanizing.
• The percentage of urban population had increased
  from 20.6 in 1982 to 26.2 by 1990.
• An increase of 5.6 in just eight years.
• Reflected job growth in the cities
• Development of the private sector.
• Governments departure from socialist methods of
  production in the secondary sector.

9
Chinese Demographics
1

• Increasing ethnic diversity.
• The government had not enforced the One Child
  Policy among the countrys 55 recognized minority
  groups.
• They had increased their share of still
  predominantly Han population to 8 from 6.7 in
  1982.
• Distribution remained heavily concentrated in the
  eastern regions.
• Current issues
• Population growth undermines Chinese development
  (education, health, transportation).
• Acceleration of urbanization at the expense of
  arable land (loss of 10 since 1978).
• About 10 million persons reach the employment
  market each year.

10
Chinese Demographics
1

• Urbanization concern
• Occurred at the expense of highly productive
  agricultural areas.
• During the 1990s, China lost 1 of its farm land
  due to urbanization and industrial development.
• Only about 10 of the Chinese territory can be
  used for agricultural purposes.
• The area used for grain production has declined
  from 120 million hectares in 1978 to 110 million
  hectares in 1995.

11
Acres of Arable Land per Person
1
12
Chinese Demographics
1

• Agricultural problems
• Traditional land structures have reach optimal
  capacity.
• Output cannot be increased without the usage of
  modern techniques such as machinery and
  fertilizers.
• Modern techniques are not available.
• The size of exploitations is too small
• Less than 1 hectare per household in coastal
  areas.
• Urbanization, industrialization and transport
  have decreased agricultural land in the most
  productive areas.
• Speculation around cities towards golf courses
  and leisure centers at the expanse of
  agriculture.
• About 13-15 million new mouths to feed each year
  with declining agricultural surfaces.
• Production of grain is diverted to livestock
  (meat) and other production (e.g. beer).
• Limited investments in agriculture by the peasant.

13
Chinese Demographics
1

• Improving Chinese agriculture
• Considerable room for improvement for the Chinese
  agricultural productivity.
• China has not much applied techniques learned
  during the green revolution.
• Consolidation of agricultural plots could
  increase economies of scale.
• Irrigation
• 65 of all the water used for irrigation is lost.
• Putting this ratio only to 50 could increase
  water resources by 40 without taping on new
  sources.
• Approximately 25 of the grain is lost due to
  improper warehousing and transport infrastructure.

14
Chinese Demographics
1

• Increased agricultural output
• Regrouping small exploitations to reach economies
  of scale.
• Investments in irrigation.
• Reduction of agricultural labor between 100 to
  120 millions.
• Rural enterprises to absorb in situ the excess
  labor.
• Moving from a labor to a capital intensive
  agriculture.

15
Family Planning
1

• Early 1970s
• Known as the later-longer-fewer program.
• Authorized age of marriage 25 for men and 23 for
  women.
• Wait later to begin their families, allow for
  longer spacing in between children, and have
  fewer children overall.
• Began to reduce fertility levels.
• Not fast enough to really slow down population
  growth due to the demographic momentum that had
  already developed.
• End of 1970s
• Government began to promote the two-child family
  throughout the country.
• Slogan One is best, at most two, never a third.
• Contributed to fertility decline but, again, not
  rapidly enough.

16
Family Planning
1

• One Child Policy
• Launched in 1981 when the population reached 1
  billion.
• Initial goal Stabilize Chinas population at 1.2
  billion.
• Revised goal Keep Chinas population under 1.4
  billion until 2010.
• Population expected to stabilize around 1.6
  billion by 2050.
• Under the responsibility of the State Family
  Planning Commission (SFPC).
• Population control perceived from a strategic
  point of view.
• Great variations in performance between the
  countrys urban and rural areas.
• Possible to enforce in China (totalitarian).
• Would have been impossible in most other places.

17
Family Planning
1

• Regulations of the policy
• Employers and neighborhood committees had to
  enforce guidelines.
• 1) Authorization for marriage
• 25 years for male and 23 years for female.
• Students and apprentices not allowed to marry.
• 2) Monitoring menstrual cycles.
• 3) Contraceptive use mandatory
• UID used for women with already one child.
• Incentives for sterilization after the birth of
  the first child.
• Couples with two or more children had to have one
  partner sterilized (women 80 of the time).
• 4) All pregnancies must be authorized
• Authorized pregnancies had to be aborted.
• 7th, 8th or 9th month abortions are legal.

18
Family Planning
1

• Incentives offered to couples with only one
  child
• Monthly allowances paid to couples with only one
  child.
• Child entitled to free educational and medical
  services.
• Disincentives used to discourage larger families
• Fine up to 15 of annual income.
• Couples forced to give up all privileges if a
  second child was born and had to repay any cash
  awards it had received.
• A third child denied free education, subsidized
  food, and housing privileges.
• A third childs parents would be penalized with a
  10 reduction in wages.

19
Family Planning
1

• Urban areas
• Small sized apartments.
• Improving ones status and level of consumption.
• Easier control from the government.
• Rural areas
• Families want more children to work the family
  plots and sustain parents when they get old.
• Want sons who will continue the family line and
  provide ritual sacrifices to their ancestors
  after they die.
• Daughters are leaving their family once they
  marry.
• Girls are accounting for only 20 to 30 of a new
  demographic class in some areas.

20
Percentage of Women Having More Than One Child,
1998
1

• Fertility reduction
• Prevented about 300 million births since 1980.
• When the program began (1970), Crude Birth Rate
  was 34 and TFR was around 6.
• Been brought down to 10 (CBR) and 1.7 (TFR).
• About 40 of Chinese women have been sterilized.
• About 5 of women have more than one child.

21
Family Planning
1

• Fluctuations of fertility
• Fertility has declined substantially before the
  OCP.
• Reached a low in 1984.
• Increased from the mid 1980s to the early 1990s.
• Relaxation in enforcement in rural areas.
• In 1986, 2 children per couple were allowed in
  rural areas.
• In 1995, the restriction was lifted for urban
  areas.
• Reductions in the authority of local officials
  responsible for implementing the program.
• Sizeable age cohort entering their reproductive
  years.
• Baby boom of the early 1960s (about 40 of the
  increase was due to this).
• A decline in the age of marriage explained the
  other 60.
• Nearly 75 of this increase was offset by
  declines in the age-specific fertility rates.

22
Chinese Fertility Rate, 1949-1998
1
23
Family Planning
1

• Imbalanced sex ratio
• Male children are more valued.
• 120 boys for 100 girls (national average).
• Abandon or abortion of females.
• Missing female population as girls are not
  declared.
• 2000 About 900,000 girls were missing (0 to 4
  years group).
• Only 1 of females are unmarried by the age of
  30.
• Psychological consequences
• Currently around 70 million single child.
• 4-2-1 syndrome (4 grand parents 2 parents 1
  child)
• Little emperors or little empresses.
• Self-centrism.
• Pressure to succeed.

24
Males minus Females, China, 2000
1
25
Family Planning
1

• The Population and Family Planning Law
• One-child policy was a policy for one
  generation.
• Relaxed in the mid 1980s
• 2 children permitted in rural areas.
• A new family planning law started in 2002.
• Same goal than the One-child policy, but offer
  more flexibility
• One child, but permission may be granted for a
  second under specific circumstances.
• Late marriage and childbearing.
• More flexibility for provinces, autonomous
  regions and minorities.
• People in reproductive age have to use
  contraception.
• Provisions for sex-determination and sex-specific
  abortions.
• Government keeping a close eye on demographics to
  see if population control required.

26
Population Pyramid of China, 2000
1
27
Population Pyramid of China, 2050
1
28
Population Planning in China
2

• What would have happened if it was not applied?
• Population by 2000 would have reached 1.6 billion
  (instead of 1.3).
• Annual increase would be 40 million (instead of
  17-19).
• Require much higher level of economic
  development.
• The total population will continue to increase
• Even if the natural growth rate can be lowered to
  1 by 2005.
• Annual net increase of population will still be
  more than 10 million.
• Will continue to increase in the next 50 years.
• Even with effective family planning, Chinas
  population will not stabilize until it reaches
  1.5-1.6 billion by 2050.

29
Population Planning in China
2

• Improve the quality of the population
• Education and health.
• 2.5 million students entered Universities in
  2001.
• Tremendous incurred costs.
• Potential surplus labor in rural areas
• A result of the development of the rural economy
  and the higher rate of birth.
• Large numbers of surplus rural labor who will
  need to transfer from the agricultural to a
  non-agricultural field.
• Speed urbanization of the population and create
  bigger pressure on cities and towns.

30
Population Planning in China
2

• Aging of the population
• Persons 65 years and older represent about 7
  percent of the population.
• In the 21st century, Chinas population will
  continue this aging trend.
• 65 years old or older numbering 250 million by
  the year 2040.
• Providing social security and services to a huge
  elderly population.