Title: COLLABORATION in the IFPS Era
1COLLABORATIONin the IFPS Era
2Outline
- Reasons for collaboration
- Influences on collaboration
- Tools
- 12Planet
- ISC
- Collaboration dos and donts
- Collaboration experiences during NDFD prototype
- Unresolved issues
3Collaboration vs.Coordination
- Collaboration - exchanging ideas to reach a
common forecast solution - Coordination - notifying surrounding offices of
your forecast
4My forecast vs. NWS forecast
5How Good is Good Enough?Initial Collaboration
Triggers
- MaxT/MinT/T/Td - 5 deg (7 deg in complex terrain)
- PoP - 20
- Sky - 25 (40 in complex terrain)
- Wind - 10 kts (15 kts in complex terrain)
- QPF - 0.25/6 hr
- Snow - 2 inches (only for homogenous situations)
- Free Air Wind - 15 kts
- Snow Level - 1000 ft
- Wx - Liquid/freezing/frozen (cannot check in ISC
Discrep) - http//www-md.fsl.noaa.gov/IFPS/ISC.htm
6Influences on Collaboration
- Schedules/duties
- Order and method of weather element production
- Forecaster philosophy
- Office philosophy
- The forecasters knowledge of meteorology and
his/her ability to communicate it
7Schedules/Duties
- How an office breaks down duties matters
- Routine/Update vs Short/Long term vs
Public/Aviation - Adding new day 7 deadline of 1745Z
- Doing days 4-7 at same time is efficient
- Pertinent model data available
- If ensembles later show a change in forecast is
needed, then collaborate on those aspects - Need to start at about the same time for most
effective collaboration - Everyone working on a subset of entire database
8An Extended Forecast Timeline
- 13-16z Collaborate major issues and edit grids
- HPC currently experimenting with preliminary
extended discussion - 16-17z ISC grid comparisons and final tweaking
- Subject to change, based on availability of
guidance and customer demands
9Weather Element Productionand the Impact on
Collaboration
- Edit grids to optimize meteorological reasoning
so they are internally consistent - PoP ? Wx ? Sky ???
- Common smart tools facilitate collaboration
- Using diurnal curve tools for T from MaxT/MinT,
weather from pop, etc. - Use lapse rate tools to account for terrain
10Philosophy
- The emphasis an office places on a well
collaborated forecast makes a difference - Management team leads the way
- Attitude towards collaboration can differ from
forecaster to forecaster in an office - More work for other forecasters - if one
forecaster does not collaborate then others have
to fix forecast to be well collaborated - The forecast style (aggressive or conservative)
of each forecaster will impact collaboration
11Tools
- 12Planet
- Intersite Coordination of Grids (ISC)
- Telephone
1212Planet
- Each office has standardized IDs
- WFOs are XXX_short, XXX_long, XXX_3, XXX_4
- HPCs are hpc_MDLDIAG, hpc_MEDR, hpc_QPF1,
hpc_QPF2 - RFCs are XXX_1, XXX_2, XXX_3
- SPCs are
- Can block all but your surrounding offices and
NCEP - Can talk to all on your subscribe list at once as
well as just a select few (whisper/private chat)
1312Planet
- You can set up a word list on which to receive
audio alarms - By choosing _ as a word, you will receive an
audio alarm on each message posted by someone in
your subscribe list - You can set up a temporary chat room to talk to a
few offices or for a regional meeting
Help can be accessed by clicking then Help
while in 12Planet or at http//www-md.fsl.noaa.gov
/IFPS/12p/12Planet.htm
1412Planet is just the beginning
- Provides initial method for widespread
collaboration of meteorological thought - Collaboration strategies and chat tools are sure
to evolve - May eventually find a method to enhance or
replace chat capability
15 Chat Advantages
- Efficient and less intrusive to forecast process
- Focuses discussion on one topic at a time
- Encourages conciseness
- Allows everyone to use same mode of communication
- Facilitates exchange of all viewpoints
- Less potential for personalities to dominate
- Allows earlier collaboration of potential
headlines
16Chat Advantages cont
- Allows for continuous sharing of information
- Quicker notification of changes in meteorological
thinking - Can also relay technical issues or severe weather
reports - Opportunity for science sharing
- Increased interaction with surrounding offices
and NCEP - Other uses of posts
- Basis of AFD
- Shift briefing
- Subsequent forecasters can review evolution of
forecast
17ISC Grid Collaboration
18Ways to Send ISC
Send your grids Early and Often - Dont wait
until all grids have been edited! Also do not
send grids you intend to edit again
- You can choose to
- send ISC grids via the
- Save Dialog This should
- be the default
OR
Send ISC Grid option from Right Mouse Button over
a particular grid
19Send ISC Dialog
- Select Weather Elements you wish to send
- Select the Time Period
- Choose sites you wish to send to
- So if you edited MaxT for Day 3 on the eastern
boundary, you can just send that grid to the WFO
that borders on the east
Can choose groups such as Public, Fire, etc.
20Intersite Coordination Mode
- How to find where forecast differences exceed the
collaboration thresholds
You can set up a sample point set which will
allow forecasters to get a quick look at whether
ISC thresholds are being met
21ISC Discrepancy Tools
- There are three GFE tools to help identify
discrepancies - Show_ISC_Highlights -- highlights grids that are
discrepant. This is the tool called by the
ISC_Discrepancies Procedure - Show_ISC_Grid -- creates a discrepancy grid to be
viewed from the Grid Manager - Show_ISC_Area -- creates an edit area identifying
where discrepancies were found
Complex Terrain Discrepancy Grid
22Generating Discrepancy Grids
Via the Consistency Menu
Choose the elements and times to check
Grids with points exceeding the thresholds are
highlighted
23Generating Discrepancy Grids
Show_ISC_Area
Creates edit areas where thresholds are exceeded
24Generating Discrepancy Grids
Show_ISC_Grid
Creates grid showing differences between your
forecast at that point and your neighbors Those
exceeding the threshold are highlighted
25Collaboration Dos
- Collaborate potentially major issues before your
mind is made up - Collaborate significant changes to going forecast
and any potential headlines - Work to get everyone on board this is one time
when peer pressure is a good thing! - Focus on the meteorology when chatting
- Indicate why are you leaning in a particular
forecast direction - Especially important in extreme events
- Concentrate on meteorology, not zones or words
- Minimize use of edit areas that conform to
geopolitical boundaries
26Collaboration Donts
- No need to chat about minor tweaks if you are
going to be within tolerances/thresholds - Open ended questions are often not as effective,
need to be specific - SEW - concerned abt shrtwv on tues. May need
pops. Whats your thoughts? - OUN/TUL - Eta a lot drier than GFS w/H85 mstr
tngt? Which way are you leaning? - Dont neglect the chat that frustrates
surrounding offices - Dont go with a particular forecast solution
without backing it up (e.g. blindly going with
model guidance)
27What if You Do Not Agree?How to Work Around a
Potential Conflict
- If after stating your science and experience you
still cannot come to a consensus, then try these
workarounds - Agree to wait for more data which helps to
clarify the meteorological situation - For the time being, agree to keep any changes
closest to what is currently forecast until new
data can support a particular solution - Have an impartial third office or HPC break the
tie - If this is a recurring issue (e.g. temps on a
particular boundary), conduct a local study or
have a multi-office meeting on the matter
28Collaboration experiences during NDFD prototype
29Collaboration Successes During the NDFD Prototype
- Summer 2002 during significant cold frontal
passage, HPC provided specific ECMWF sfc data - HPC occasionally provided web addresses to
datasets they were using along with additional
explanation - Collaboration makes offices focus on edges of CWA
which can improve service to those areas - Several occasions when ICT CWA corner forecasts
were improved via ISC grids - RLX forecasters benefited from RNK forecasters
expertise in a border valley which improved
service to that area
30Problems Encountered During the NDFD Prototype
- Numerous cases where offices
- Waited until the last minute to send any ISC
grids - Werent in chat room or never responded to
specific inquiries - Forecasters who insist on forecasting a seemingly
small chance event, refuse to give some to
consensus yet they failed to justify their
solution well enough to persuade others - Seen particularly in the medium range
- Forecasters who wont stray from guidance
31More Problems Encountered During the NDFD
Prototype
- Cases where HPC
- Medium range models were stratified into two
clusters yet when asked which one they favored,
HPC responded, Both solutions are equally
likely - Would be better to know their gut feeling as to
which would verify - Ignored several WFOs who differed on
location/timing of nocturnal convection in Plains
32(No Transcript)
33Evolution of CollaborationChat room excerpts one
year later
- WFO SGF - with regard to the upcoming system wed
nt into thursday...given the eta trend to sink
500 mb height field....layer rh field...and vort
track about 150 miles south over the last 2
runs...think that a winter storm watch may be
needed over the northern 2/3 of my cwa. initial
proposed boundaries are in wwa - tsa_longTerm - Looking with each successive model
run that impact will be greater over ne oklahoma
and nw arkansas wed night as well...but
preliminary thoughts would be low end advisory
amounts along ks border. Will have to wait and
see. - WFO SGF - if in fact we do get several inches of
snowpack...fridays high temps may need to be
trimmed back substantially as waa not really
kicking in yet - eax-1 - all prelim grids have been sent. lowered
max temps quite a bit friday for areas which
should receive significant snow accumulations. - ICT (Routine) - 18z mesoeta is even stronger with
isentropic lift...this fits the pattern of all
models continuing to deepen the system every run.
will extend the watch a bit more to the west - Topeka Long Term - Is anyone concerned with the
clipper system progged to come across Iowa on
Saturday? Models are fairly consistent with the
short wave, but again moisture is the wild card. - ICT (Routine) - despite impressive forcing/lift,
the antecedent dry air should preclude sgfnt qpf
til 00z in sern ks. - Topeka Long Term - Was thinking that an advisory
would be warrented in east central zones. Am not
excited about warning criteria being met. The
best lift is used to saturate the airmass and
then scoots east pretty quickly with the best
accumulation occurring between 00z and 08z. - ICT (Routine) - the limiting/troubling factor is
wedge of drier air in the low lvls that seems to
get wrapped up into sys acrs parts of the cwa. - eax-4 - quick look at 12Z initialization of ETA
makes me think the ETA may be a little too far
south with position of 500mb low, based on WV
imagery and profiler data.
34The New Forecast MethodologyCollaboration
Smoothes the Way
- Only make changes where needed
- Examine new information as though current
forecast is good, until majority of data suggests
otherwise - Enables forecasters to come to a synoptic scale
understanding before making major changes to
existing grids - Helps to avoid potential problems and wasted time
- Allows forecasters to share scientific techniques
- Use ISC to identify any boundary issues
- Convergence toward a solution is better than
yo-yo effect
35Typical Forecast Shift
- Shift briefing should mention potential problems
(meteorology and grids) - If substantial changes could be needed, reach
consensus on large scale evolution first - Edit grids and share via ISC
- Collaborate to resolve finer scale details
36Ponder thisAs Yet Unanswered Questions
- How do you do a rolling database over multiple
offices? - Do you forecast/chase thunderstorm clusters and
outflow boundaries and their effect on
pops/temps/winds/sky etc.? - At what point do you update?
- What is consensus according to our customers
and partners?
37Things to Keep in Mind
- Extreme events continue to be the most important
- Lets work together to nail them
- Is latest model run always the best choice if
large changes are indicated - Maybe trends are better
- Consensus forecast has superior accuracy? Yes for
long term average, not specific forecasts - Consensus is not the best forecast, but the
least wrong over the long haul C. Doswell - But it is still important to have meteorological
consistency as it affects NWS credibility - So to gain credibility as an agency, we must
- reach consensus with grids
38Which Forecasts Are Most Credible?Imagine
Yourself as a Customer
39Final ThoughtsKeys for Successful Collaboration
- Discussion needs to begin early in the forecast
process as new information (i.e. model data)
arrives - Interaction needs to continue throughout the
forecast process - Focus on the meteorology
- In both chat and grids
- Consensus is critical